Six clean sheets in nine: can Red Star’s away form break down Montpellier?
Montpellier’s defence is the reason they are third. Zoumana Camara’s side have conceded five goals in nine Ligue 2 games and kept six clean sheets, and seven of their matches have finished with fewer than three goals. Red Star come to La Mosson as the division’s best away team, with four wins and a draw. The game was moved from Saturday afternoon at the request of the local prefecture because of a planned protest.
„Montpellier est une équipe très solide et cohérente. Elle nous ressemble dans le style de jeu.“ („Montpellier are a very solid, coherent side. They play a similar style to us.“) – Red Star coach Damien Perrinelle
Predicted lineups: Montpellier vs Red Star
Montpellier have a new problem at right-back. Alpha Sissoko, who had only just made his debut, has a hamstring injury and could be out for several weeks, while Hatchi is still missing with an adductor problem. Nordan Mukiele is back after missing the Rodez game and is pushing Lacine Megnan-Pave for a place in attack. Red Star listed Cabral, Diawara, Lemonnier and Trani as injured, but none of them started against Saint-Étienne, so Perrinelle can keep the same XI with Damien Durand and Jovany Ikanga A Ngele leading the attack.
Montpellier Team News & Preview
Camara expects „un match engagé avec de l’intensité face à une équipe qui a de forts principes“ („a committed, intense match against a team with strong principles“), and that is how most Montpellier games go. Their results so far read 1-1, 1-0, 1-0, 0-0, 1-3, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 and 3-0. The only defeat came at Saint-Étienne in early September, and they are unbeaten in four since.
The 3-0 at Rodez was their biggest win, but all three goals came in the second half of a fairly even game. At home the attack has been quiet: four goals in four league games at La Mosson. Nicolas Pays is the top scorer with three goals and also the best-rated player in the squad.
What works for or against Montpellier
- Six clean sheets in nine league games.
- Unbeaten in four, and only one goal conceded at home.
- Just four goals in four home league games.
- Right-back Sissoko has joined Hatchi on the injury list.
Red Star Team News & Preview
Red Star look like two different teams. Away from home they have four wins and a draw, with ten goals, including 3-1 at Guingamp and 3-2 at Clermont. At home they have won only once in four games and scored twice. Their last game was a 1-0 home defeat by Saint-Étienne in which they created only 0.26 expected goals from five shots.
Durand is the man to watch, with five goals and the best FotMob rating in the squad, and Ikanga A Ngele has four. Perrinelle wants „de la verticalité et beaucoup de rythme et d’intensité“ („vertical football with a lot of tempo and intensity“), and their 1.88 expected goals per game are the highest of the four teams playing in Ligue 2 tonight.
What works for or against Red Star
- Four wins and a draw in five away league games.
- Durand has five goals and Ikanga A Ngele four.
- Only 0.26 expected goals in the last game against Saint-Étienne.
- Both meetings last season ended 1-1.
Montpellier vs Red Star Odds
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Montpellier vs. Red Star Form Guide
Montpellier Form, Stats & Data
Conceding 0.56 goals per game against 1.29 expected goals against shows Montpellier have defended their box very well. They keep the ball, slow the game down and rarely chase goals, which is why their matches stay low-scoring even when the expected goals are not especially low. Their own finishing is unspectacular, with 1.22 goals per game.
Red Star Form, Stats & Data
Red Star create far more than they score: 1.88 expected goals per game, but only 1.33 actual goals. That attacking potential is the main threat to an Under bet. Their defence is solid too, with 1.14 expected goals against, so this is a well-balanced side rather than an open one.
Montpellier vs Red Star: Prediction & Betting Tip
Seven of Montpellier’s nine games have finished with fewer than three goals, they have conceded once at home all season, and they have scored only four times at La Mosson. Red Star are dangerous away from home, but both coaches describe two similar, well-organised sides, and both meetings last season ended 1-1. I expect a tight game decided by one goal, if any.
Red Star’s chance creation is what worries me. Nobody in tonight’s Ligue 2 games produces more expected goals per game, and three of their five away matches have had three goals or more. If they score first, Montpellier will have to open up. I still trust Montpellier’s defence more than Red Star’s away scoring, so I am taking Under 2.5 Goals at 1.88 with Winz and expect a 1-0 home win.