Klopp’s second-string Germany meet a Serbia side that keeps scoring and keeps losing
Germany host Serbia at the Allianz Arena in Munich on Thursday, 1 October 2026, on matchday three of UEFA Nations League A, Group 2, kick-off 20:45 CEST. Jürgen Klopp’s first two games as national manager produced a 1-1 in Amsterdam and a 0-1 home defeat to Greece, leaving Germany third with one point; Serbia are bottom with nothing after two home defeats. Klopp has followed through on his plan of a second, almost entirely new squad for the October games, which makes this less a continuation of the September side than a fresh start with a debutant goalkeeper. Norwegian referee Espen Eskås takes charge, with Tiago Martins on VAR.
„Ich habe einige Erkenntnisse gewonnen, die ich nicht haben wollte“ – Klopp on the Greece defeat: he gained some insights he did not want.
Predicted lineups: Germany vs Serbia
Klopp’s 25-man group for Munich retains only Dahmen, Schlotterbeck, Treu, Engelhardt, Conté and Gnabry from September; Kimmich left as planned after two games, Havertz went home with a muscle strain from Amsterdam and Musiala tore a muscle fibre in the warm-up before Greece, with Wirtz and Burkardt called in early. Brajan Gruda did not travel with an abdominal strain. Urbig’s presence at Wednesday’s press conference points strongly to a debut in goal, and spox and ran agree on a 4-2-3-1 with Pavlović and Janelt as the pivot and Wirtz behind Burkardt; the captaincy is open between Gnabry, Wirtz, Raum and Schlotterbeck. Serbia’s picture is worse: Milinković-Savić went off early against the Netherlands with a muscle injury and the doctors are described as not optimistic, Pavlović is unlikely to recover in time, and Milenković was already unavailable, so Paunović picks his centre-backs from Babić, Eraković, Simić and Gudelj. Rosić and Mimović were added to the squad on Tuesday. No Serbian outlet had published an expected eleven at the time of writing, so the visitors‘ side below is built from the Belgrade line-up with those enforced changes.
Germany Team News & Preview
The Greece game told Klopp what he did not want to know. Germany had most of the ball in Augsburg, created chances through Adeyemi twice before the half-hour, Conté after the restart and a Brown cutback that Ebnoutalib missed, and still lost to a Kourbelis shot that deflected in off Kimmich on 74 minutes. Kimmich’s own verdict was that the play was too static and the ideas up front ran out; Klopp’s was „Uns fehlen die Abläufe“ – the routines are missing – and that the steps forward have to be bigger and faster. Spox gave five players a 4.5 or worse, with Bisseck the only bright spot, and the domestic reaction to the first-ever defeat to Greece was sharp.
Rather than tweak, Klopp has done what he announced in September and brought in the second half of his 44-man list. Nine of the 25 are uncapped, Urbig looks set for his debut in goal, and the spine changes completely: Pavlović instead of Kimmich to set the rhythm, Wirtz between the lines, Burkardt or Woltemade as the physical reference. All 25 trained in Herzogenaurach on Tuesday, and Klopp wants standing terraces and a proper home atmosphere in Munich. The manager expects Serbia to sit deep as Greece did, and that is the tactical test; the betting question is a different one. This is a new defence, a new keeper and a new midfield partnership against opponents who have scored in every one of their last three meetings with Germany, and I do not think a clean sheet is the likeliest outcome even with the quality gap.
What works for or against Germany
- Wirtz, Woltemade, Burkardt, Gnabry and Pavlović give Klopp far more attacking quality than he had against Greece, against a Serbian defence missing Milinković-Savić, Pavlović and Milenković.
- Nineteen new players, a debutant keeper, an open captaincy and a manager who admits the routines are missing – this is a team meeting for the first time in competition.
- Conceded in both Nations League games and lost at home to Greece; Klopp is winless after two, which only Herberger and Schön had matched at the start of a Germany reign.
- Germany dominated possession and chance creation against Greece – the problem was finishing, not the flow of the game.
Serbia Team News & Preview
Serbia are bottom of the group after two home defeats at the Rajko Mitić, and the pattern in both was the same: score, then concede. Against Greece they led through Živković early, lost it to Tzolis and a Douvikas header in the fifth minute of stoppage time, and Jović missed a clear chance with Joveljić hitting the bar. Against the Netherlands, Meerdink’s penalty put the visitors ahead, Jović scrambled an equaliser straight after coming on at half-time with Tadić, and Meerdink won it on 69 minutes; Van Dijk hit the post in between. Paunović thought the penalty was „nezaslužen i premekan“ – undeserved and too soft – and insists the defence is „not as bad as it looks when we concede“, but the numbers are four goals conceded in two games in front of only 15,600 people, and the Serbian press has used the words „humiliated“ and „tragedy“.
The injuries make the trip to Munich harder still. Milinković-Savić took a blow against the Netherlands and Kurir reports the doctors are not optimistic about either October game; Pavlović stays with the squad but is unlikely for Thursday; Milenković was already out. That is a third different centre-back pairing in three games from Babić, Eraković, Simić and Gudelj, and the goals have kept coming against them. What Serbia still have is a front line: Jović has scored, Tadić and Kostić changed the game off the bench in Belgrade, and Živković scored inside the first minutes against Greece. Paunović’s line that „the level rises match by match“ is generous, but the goals at one end have been real, and against a German back four that has never played together I expect them to get at least one more.
What works for or against Serbia
- Scored in both Nations League games and in all three meetings with Germany since independence, with Jović, Tadić, Kostić and Živković all available.
- Milinković-Savić and Pavlović join Milenković on the injured list – a third different back line in three games.
- Two home defeats, four goals conceded, and Paunović's position is being openly discussed in the Serbian press.
- Both Serbian defeats were by a single goal with the lead lost late – the results have been closer than the mood suggests.
Germany vs Serbia Odds
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Germany Form, Stats & Data
One goal in two games, from Nmecha in Amsterdam, is the number that matters for Germany, and it came from a side that had the ball for most of both matches. Klopp’s diagnosis is structural – no routines yet – rather than a lack of talent, and the October squad addresses that with Wirtz as the creator and Burkardt and Woltemade as reference points against a deep block. The other side of the ledger is two goals conceded from limited opposition chances, a stoppage-time equaliser in Amsterdam and a deflection in Augsburg, and now a keeper and a back four assembled for the first time this week. I expect Germany to score more than once in Munich; I am much less confident they keep Serbia out.
Serbia Form, Stats & Data
Serbia have scored in both games and lost both, which is the profile of a team with an attack and no defence, and the injuries to Milinković-Savić and Pavlović push that further. Jović’s finishing has been mixed – a missed chance against Greece, a goal within a minute of coming on against the Netherlands – but Tadić and Kostić remain capable of creating from nothing, and Germany’s reshuffled defence has not been tested as a unit. Four goals conceded at home against Greece and the Netherlands suggests Germany will find chances even with a makeshift eleven, so I see this as a game where both sides score and Germany win, rather than a shutout.
Germany vs Serbia: Prediction & Betting Tip
Germany should win this, but a straight home win at 1.24 is not a bet I want to make on a side with nineteen new faces, and Klopp’s own words tell you the routines are not there yet. What I trust more is the pattern at both ends: Germany have conceded in every game under Klopp, Serbia have scored in every game under Paunović this month and in all three meetings with Germany since 2008, and the visitors‘ back line is now missing three centre-backs, which is why the German attack – Wirtz, Burkardt, Gnabry, Woltemade – should get its goals too.
The strongest argument against is Serbia’s morale and depth. Two home defeats, a coach under pressure and a front line that may be starved of service if Germany dominate the ball as they did against Greece could produce a one-sided, one-way game in which Serbia never get a clean look at Urbig. That is a real scenario, and it is why I stay at a moderate stake rather than pairing the goals with a German win.
My main bet is **Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.86 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 2-1.