Reshuffled Austria walk into a charged Aviva as Ireland regroup after Israel
The Republic of Ireland host Austria at the Aviva Stadium on Thursday, 1 October 2026, on matchday three of UEFA Nations League B, Group 3, with kick-off at 19:45 local time, 20:45 CEST. Austria lead the group with six points after beating Israel and Kosovo 3-1 apiece; Ireland have three after a limp defeat in Pristina and a 3-0 win over Israel played out in near silence in Hungary, with black armbands, no handshakes and a squad that has refused all media since. The FAI has cleared the first rows of three stands as a buffer against pitch invasions and protests are expected, which is why Heimir Hallgrímsson admitted on Sunday that he was worried about the atmosphere and is working „on a minute-to-minute basis“. Rangnick, for his part, has told his players to expect a cauldron and a very different, more direct opponent.
„It’s definitely been testing, psychologically, 100%.“ – Heimir Hallgrímsson on the week behind his squad.
Predicted lineups: Ireland vs Austria
Neither manager has confirmed a side. Ireland’s eleven follows the shape Hallgrímsson has used in both games – a back five with two behind Parrott – with Sports Mole’s projection; Caoimhín Kelleher started both matches and made nine saves across them, while Gabriel Bazunu, who declined to play against Israel, trained with the group on Tuesday and is available again. Bosun Lawal has rejoined after a hamstring problem; Taylor, Johnston, Ferguson, McGrath, Cullen, Coleman and Collins are all out, and Finn Azaz was not fit enough to start against Israel. Austria’s side is more of a puzzle: Danso is banned, Veratschnig and Wanner are gone, Gregoritsch and Mwene trained individually on Monday, and Laimer is back but ninety minutes is described as unlikely. Peter Linden, the veteran Austrian correspondent, expects Wiegele in goal, Posch at right-back and Lienhart alongside Affengruber, with the Wanner role going to Chukwuemeka, Horvath or Laimer; the Irish Times expects Alexander Schlager in goal, so the goalkeeper is an open question.
Republic of Ireland Team News & Preview
The two September performances could hardly have been more different. In Pristina, Ireland put five centre-backs among the ten outfield players, managed three shots to Kosovo’s 22 and one on target, saw Ogbene miss an open chance from twelve yards and lost to a Muriqi header on 83 minutes; the Irish Times called it listless, and the Sofascore expected goals read 2.22 to 0.28. In Debrecen, against an Israel side that has now lost five of its last six competitive games, the same basic shape was ruthless: Parrott on 13 minutes from Abankwah’s cross, Idah three minutes later from Moylan, Moylan himself on 25, three shots on target and three goals, with Kelleher untroubled for the rest of the night. Parrott now has seven goals in his last five competitive internationals, and Moylan’s emergence gives Hallgrímsson a second creative outlet.
The context is what makes this game hard to read. The squad spent the week between games in a boycott row, there has been tension between Bazunu and a teammate that ended in an apology, nobody is speaking to the press, and the manager has appealed to the public to keep supporting the players „because they certainly deserve it, to play under these circumstances“. He has also said the bond will be stronger for it. What Ireland do have going for them is the record at the Aviva: unbeaten in seven home games, five wins and three draws in the last eight, and an Austria side that has not left Dublin with a win since 1995. Hallgrímsson’s Iceland beat Austria 2-1 at Euro 2016, and his teams are at their best when they are allowed to sit, defend a box and break. That is exactly what a reshuffled Austrian defence invites.
What works for or against Ireland
- Unbeaten in seven at the Aviva, five wins and three draws in the last eight home games, and Austria have not won in Ireland since 1995.
- Parrott has seven goals in five competitive games and Ireland turned three shots on target into three goals against Israel.
- Outshot 22-3 in Kosovo with 0.28 expected goals – when the opponent keeps the ball, this team creates almost nothing.
- Seven players out, a squad emotionally drained by the Israel controversy, and a manager openly worried about Thursday's atmosphere and possible protests.
Austria Team News & Preview
Rangnick’s rebuilt team has started the cycle with two 3-1 wins and a lot of noise about energy. Against Kosovo in front of 47,000 in Vienna, Affengruber, Adamu and Chukwuemeka scored before Zhegrova pulled one back from a penalty Affengruber conceded, and the manager’s verdict was that it „rattled for almost 90 minutes“ – his measure of the pressing intensity he demanded at the start of camp. Six changes from the Israel game, four debutants, 24 players used across the two matches: this is a manager treating the group as a laboratory, and it has worked at home.
Dublin is the first away test, and it comes with the defence stripped down. Danso, the leader of the back line, is suspended after yellow cards in both games; Veratschnig has a knee injury Salzburg expect to last several weeks and Wanner a foot injury, and neither was replaced in the squad; Gregoritsch has an ankle ligament strain that Rangnick called a pain problem rather than structural damage, but he and Mwene trained on their own on Monday. Laimer is back after a muscle-fibre tear and is expected to captain if he plays, though not for the full game, and Horvath’s thigh scare was cleared by an MRI. The goalkeeper is undecided between Wiegele and Alexander Schlager. Rangnick has been explicit about what is coming: „Da wird eine heiße Atmosphäre herrschen, und sie werden eine andere Herangehensweise haben“ – a hot atmosphere and a different, more physical approach. Austria’s press with Seiwald and Xaver Schlager as the pivot is intact and Schmid created six chances in September, so I expect them to have the ball and the chances; whether a back four assembled this week and a keeper making his first competitive start hold out against Ireland’s direct game and set pieces is the doubt.
What works for or against Austria
- Six goals in two games, Schmid creating six chances, Adamu and Chukwuemeka scoring, and the Seiwald–X. Schlager press intact.
- Danso suspended, Veratschnig and Wanner injured and not replaced, Gregoritsch and Mwene doubtful – a reshuffled back four and an undecided goalkeeper for the first away game.
- No win in Ireland since 1995, and Rangnick himself is preparing the squad for a cauldron and a long-ball, physical opponent.
- Laimer is back in training after a muscle tear but is unlikely to manage 90 minutes.
Ireland vs Austria Odds
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Republic of Ireland vs. Austria Stats Comparison
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Republic of Ireland vs. Austria Form Guide
Republic of Ireland Form, Stats & Data
Ireland’s two games produced 0.28 and 1.57 expected goals, three and eight shots, and the difference was almost entirely the opponent. Kosovo kept the ball and Ireland could not get out; Israel gave it away and Ireland scored three times from four big chances. Austria will keep the ball, which points towards the Pristina version of this team, but Rangnick’s defence is far weaker this week than Kosovo’s was, and Ireland’s threat from Parrott, Idah and set pieces is real. Kelleher’s form – five saves in Kosovo, an 8.4 rating against Israel – is the other constant. I see Ireland as a side that will concede chances but has enough at home, and enough of a record at the Aviva, to avoid defeat more often than not.
Austria Form, Stats & Data
Six goals from two games and six chances created by Schmid alone put Austria’s attack a level above Ireland’s, and the press has done exactly what Rangnick wants at home. The defensive numbers are less convincing: two goals conceded, including a penalty given away by Affengruber, and that was with Danso and Veratschnig on the pitch. Thursday’s back four will be new, the keeper may be making his first competitive start, and Laimer cannot play the whole game. Against a direct side that scores from crosses and set pieces, that is the specific weakness I am backing, which is why I prefer the double chance on the hosts to any Austrian market at these odds.
Ireland vs Austria: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, this comes down to which uncertainty is bigger. Austria’s is on the pitch: a suspended defensive leader, two injured defenders not replaced, two more doubtful, an open goalkeeping decision and a returning captain who cannot last ninety minutes, all for the first away game of the cycle in a stadium Rangnick himself expects to be hostile. Ireland’s is off it – the boycott row, the media silence, the protests – but their record at the Aviva is seven unbeaten, Austria have not won here in three decades, and Hallgrímsson’s side just showed against Israel how efficient it can be when it gets even a few clear chances.
The strongest argument against is Pristina. If Austria keep the ball the way Kosovo did, Ireland may not manage three shots, and a single Austrian goal from Schmid’s service or Adamu’s running would be enough. Austria’s six goals in two games are the reason the away win is the favourite, and I respect that; I just think the state of the defence they bring to Dublin makes a draw or a home win the more likely pair of outcomes than an Austrian victory.
My main bet is **Republic of Ireland Double Chance (1X) at 1.65 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 1-1.