France, without Mbappé and Upamecano, meet a Belgium stripped of its two midfield leaders
France host Belgium at the Stade de France on Monday, 5 October 2026, on matchday four of UEFA Nations League A, Group 1, with kick-off at 20:45 CEST and Nicholas Walsh of Scotland as referee. France lead the group on seven points after a 1-1 with Italy on Friday, Belgium are second on six after beating Türkiye 3-0, and the winner here takes a firm grip on first place with two games left in November. It is the return of the Brussels meeting of 28 September, which an Olise solo goal settled in the 88th minute, and both managers are in their fourth match: Zinédine Zidane has yet to lose, Van Bommel has won two of three. The team news, though, is heavily one-sided. France lose a centre-back to suspension; Belgium lose the two players who have run their midfield all window.
„We hebben te veel domme ballen verloren en hebben het onszelf te moeilijk gemaakt“ – Mark van Bommel after the 3-0 against Türkiye: too many stupid balls lost, and we made it too hard for ourselves.
Predicted lineups: France vs Belgium
Zidane said on Sunday that there would be changes – „c’est certain, c’est notre quatrième match“ – and that they would be „intelligent“ ones aimed at staying competitive, so the French eleven below follows the Sunday projections in Le Parisien and the Monday previews: Jacquet and Lacroix in the middle with Upamecano suspended, Koundé back at right-back, Koné and Camavinga in midfield, and Lepaul and Barcola joining Olise up front. The goalkeeper is open; Zidane left a possible debut for Restes hanging with „on verra“, and Maignan is the alternative. Belgium’s eleven is a reconstruction: De Bruyne and Tielemans are suspended – „we are missing our best player of the last match and our captain“, said Van Bommel – and the Belgian press expects Lavia, Raskin and Vanaken in midfield with Seys at right-back; Moreira, who served his own ban against Türkiye, is available again, Trossard is fit, and Van Bommel said not every player would start for a fourth time. Lukaku came off the bench to score on Friday and the striker spot between him and De Ketelaere is open.
France Team News & Preview
Friday’s 1-1 was the first time Zidane’s side have dropped points, and it came from the two things that had carried them: control and efficiency. France had 61 per cent of the ball, 18 shots to 14 and eight on target to three, took the lead on 55 minutes when Olise’s free-kick kissed the bar on its way in, and then gave the equaliser away on 68 when Da Cunha was pressed into a turnover and Bastoni finished. Upamecano picked up two yellow cards in eleven minutes, both for fouls on Kean, and was sent off on 85; he left Clairefontaine on Saturday morning and no replacement has been called. Zidane’s verdict was that his team „deserved better“ and that „sur le match, il n’y avait pas photo“, while admitting the first-half possession had been „un peu stérile“.
The pattern of the window is clear enough. France have scored one goal in each of their three games, two of them by Olise and the other by Mbappé before he hurt his knee, and have conceded once. The attack is reliant on Olise’s form and on Dembélé, who was captain against Italy and was marked down for it; Da Cunha’s error has been heavily criticised in the French press. The defence has been the stronger unit even with the churn: Jacquet, a debutant in this window, has started the last two games and was praised by Zidane as „très bon, vaillant“, and Maignan has been largely untroubled apart from Donnarumma-level nights at the other end. Without Upamecano the pairing is Jacquet and one of Lacroix or Yoro, against a Belgian attack that will itself be missing its main supplier.
What works for or against France
- Six straight wins over Belgium, a 1-0 in Brussels a week ago, and one goal conceded in three Nations League games.
- Olise has two goals and an assist in the window and the opponent has lost the two midfielders who created most of its chances.
- One goal per game is the ceiling so far – 18 shots against Italy produced a free-kick and nothing else, and Mbappé is not coming back for this one.
- Upamecano suspended, Konaté and Saliba already absent, so a fourth different centre-back pairing in four games.
Belgium Team News & Preview
The scoreline in Liège was better than the game. De Bruyne scored twice, from a tight angle on ten minutes and from range on 59, and Lukaku came off the bench to add the third on 76, but Türkiye had 23 shots and hit the woodwork, Lammens had to save a Güler free-kick, and Van Bommel did not hide behind the result: „pingpongwedstrijd“, „heel slordig in balbezit“, too many stupid balls given away. Sporza’s reading was that the midfield of Vanaken, Tielemans and De Bruyne had no grip on the game. The Brussels game against France a week ago had been the more honest reflection of the gap: Belgium had 35 per cent of the ball, two shots on target to seven, and lost to a goal in the 88th minute after Lammens had kept them in it with five saves.
Now that midfield has to be rebuilt without its two best players. De Bruyne was booked on 80 minutes for what Van Bommel called frustration – „he did not even realise“, said the manager, rejecting the theory that the card was taken deliberately – and Tielemans was booked on 30, both for the second time in the window, and both are suspended. Vanaken stays, Moreira returns from his own ban, and Raskin, Lavia and Keita are the options; Van Bommel has talked about „meer balans en agressie“ as the alternative to the technical trio. Lukaku, benched for 90 minutes in Brussels and then a scorer on Friday, is the other question. Belgium have scored five in three games, but two of them were De Bruyne’s and a third was set up by De Ketelaere; against a French side that has conceded once, the absence of the man who makes the final pass is the biggest single fact in this fixture.
What works for or against Belgium
- De Bruyne and Tielemans both suspended – the two players who scored two of the three goals in Liège and ran the midfield in all three games.
- Six straight defeats to France, 35 per cent possession and two shots on target in Brussels a week ago.
- Two wins from three, Lammens in excellent form with five saves against France, and Lukaku back scoring off the bench.
- Moreira is back from his ban and Van Bommel has promised more balance and aggression in midfield.
France vs Belgium Odds
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France Form, Stats & Data
Three goals scored and one conceded in three games, which is a defensive record built on possession and a high press rather than on a settled back four – France have already used three centre-back combinations and now lose Upamecano. The attacking numbers are the frustration: 18 shots and one goal against Italy, 14 shots and one goal in Brussels, and the goals keep coming from Olise. What I take from the window is a side that controls games and rarely gives chances away, which against a Belgium team missing its two creators should be enough to win; what stops me going bigger is that a one-goal win is the likeliest shape, and one-goal wins can turn on a Da Cunha-style error.
Belgium Form, Stats & Data
Five goals scored and one conceded in three games is a fine record, and the clean sheets against Italy and Türkiye are real; but the one defeat was against this opponent, and it exposed how far Belgium are from the top when they cannot keep the ball. Without De Bruyne and Tielemans the side loses its two best passers and its set-piece quality at once, and the replacements – Raskin, Lavia, Keita – are there to defend rather than create. I expect a compact, aggressive Belgium that sits deeper than it did in Liège and tries to get Lukaku or Godts a chance on the break. That makes a low-scoring game more likely than a Belgian win, and it is why I pair the home win with the under as my alternative.
France vs Belgium: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, the suspensions decide the direction of this game. Belgium without De Bruyne and Tielemans is a different team from the one that scored three in Liège, and the one time this window that France’s press had Belgium’s midfield to squeeze – with those two on the pitch – France still had seven shots on target to two and won. France have beaten Belgium six times in a row, have conceded once in three games, and are at home for the second match running. Upamecano’s absence weakens the back line, but France have spent the window rotating centre-backs and conceding almost nothing, and the nine-change side that went to Brussels still won.
The strongest argument against is France’s own finishing. One goal per game against Türkiye, Belgium and Italy, with Mbappé gone and Dembélé out of form, means every France win in this window has been narrow, and a Belgium side set up to defend with Lammens behind it could well keep this at 0-0 for an hour. A draw is a live outcome and Belgium’s counter – Lukebakio, Godts, Lukaku – only needs one chance. Zidane has also confirmed changes for a fourth game in eleven days, which adds a layer of uncertainty to a strong favourite. That is why the stake is three, and why the under is my alternative.
My main bet is **France to win at 1.47 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 1-0.