A six-pointer between two sides that score and concede in equal measure
Wales host Denmark at the Cardiff City Stadium on Sunday, 4 October 2026, on matchday four of UEFA Nations League A, Group 4, with kick-off at 20:45 CEST. Portugal have won the group in all but name, which leaves Wales, Denmark and Norway on three points each in a fight to avoid fourth place and direct relegation. Denmark won the first meeting 2-0 in Copenhagen a week ago, both goals from Damsgaard deliveries, but have since lost 4-2 at home to Portugal and have a squad that has been stripped by withdrawals. Wales come off their first win in League A, a 2-1 over ten-man Norway that Craig Bellamy called important „confidence-wise“, and have the advantage of staying at home for the second game in a row.
„Vi skal til Wales, der skal vi vinde“ – Brian Riemer on Friday: we go to Wales, and there we have to win.
Predicted lineups: Wales vs Denmark
No predicted eleven for Sunday had appeared in the Welsh or Danish press by Friday. Bellamy has made five and six changes between games, so the side below keeps the eleven that beat Norway – the 4-2-3-1 with Ampadu and Jordan James as the double pivot, Cullen pressing from the ten and Dan James and Sorba Thomas wide – with no changes assumed. Harry Wilson, Broadhead and Darlow withdrew before the window. Denmark’s side is the Parken eleven with two open questions: Damsgaard’s ankle, which he says he hopes is „not so bad“, and the right wing, where Adam Daghim was taken off at half-time against Portugal and Isaksen, who scored against Wales, is the obvious replacement. Riemer switched goalkeepers from Filip Jørgensen to Hermansen for Portugal without explanation.
Wales Team News & Preview
Thursday was the first time this group has had something to celebrate in a while. Bobb put Norway ahead on 11 minutes, Dan James equalised on 38 from a Sorba Thomas cross after Cullen had won the ball high, and 15 seconds into the second half Heggem brought down James as the last man and was sent off; Neco Williams scored the free-kick. Wales then controlled a ten-man Norway with 61 per cent of the second-half ball and finished with an expected-goals count of 2.06 to 1.30, and Haaland had one shot on target all night. It was Wales’s first win since November 2024 and their first in League A, and Bellamy afterwards spoke about the abuse he had taken since the World Cup play-off defeat to Bosnia and the summer that followed.
The honest caveat is that 45 of those minutes came against ten men, and that the front-foot approach which produced two goals against Norway produced 0.65 expected goals and nothing in Copenhagen when Wales sat deeper. The defensive record is the other issue: no clean sheet in eight matches, Ben Davies marked down for Bobb’s goal, and both goals in Parken – a Davies own goal and Isaksen’s deflected effort – from Damsgaard set pieces. No new injuries were reported from the Norway game. What Wales do have is pace on both flanks, a crowd, and a Denmark defence that its own manager says cannot sit deep; Sorba Thomas and Dan James tore Norway’s left side apart and will see the same spaces behind Mæhle and Daramy that Cancelo and Nuno Mendes exploited on Thursday.
What works for or against Wales
- A 2-1 win over Norway with 2.06 expected goals, Dan James and Sorba Thomas in form on the flanks, and a second home game in a row.
- Denmark's left side was overrun by Cancelo and Nuno Mendes on Thursday – exactly where Wales's wide players did their damage against Norway.
- No clean sheet in eight games, two set-piece goals conceded to Denmark a week ago, and the win came against ten men for 45 minutes.
- Wales failed to score against Portugal and Denmark and had scored in the first half of no 2026 match until Thursday.
Denmark Team News & Preview
Riemer has spent the window counting withdrawals. Christensen, Dolberg and Bah left before the first game, Grønbæk tore a thigh muscle in Oslo, Dorgu was injured after 30 minutes against Wales and Bak went home ill, so the same core has been asked to go again each time. Against Portugal the side twice came from behind – Damsgaard from range on 23 minutes, Højlund on 53 – and then lost 4-2 to Vitinha’s header and a late Félix strike, with Provstgaard struggling against Ramos and Daghim hooked at half-time after a torrid 45 minutes against Nuno Mendes. Riemer’s verdict was blunt: this team „cannot defend in a low block right now“, and the inexperience of the back four „is being punished“. Denmark have conceded seven goals in three games.
The attack is why this is still a game Denmark can win. Højlund has scored in all three matches, Damsgaard has two goals and two assists and is the set-piece threat that beat Wales, and Denmark have scored six times in the window. Damsgaard’s ankle is the one thing to watch: he said on Friday he feels something that hurt, hopes it is not serious and expects to be ready, but nothing is confirmed. Riemer has said he will keep picking his strongest eleven for as long as he can, while conceding that minutes have to be managed across four games in eleven days. The head-to-head over the last four meetings reads four Danish wins. But a side that gives up chances as freely as this one, away, on three days‘ rest, is not one I would back to keep Wales out.
What works for or against Denmark
- Six goals in three games, Højlund scoring in every match and Damsgaard with two goals and two set-piece assists – including both goals against Wales in Copenhagen.
- Four straight wins in the head-to-head, the most recent a 2-0 a week ago in which Wales managed 0.65 expected goals.
- Seven goals conceded in three games, six squad withdrawals, and a manager who says the team cannot defend deep.
- Damsgaard's ankle is unconfirmed, and the same core has started every game of a four-match window.
Wales vs Denmark Odds
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Wales vs. Denmark Form Guide
Wales Form, Stats & Data
Two goals scored and four conceded in three games, and both goals came in the one match in which Wales attacked from the start rather than absorbing. The Norway win was built on wide pace and a high press that turned the ball over in Norway’s half, and that is the plan I expect again against a Denmark side that was pulled apart on its left by Portugal. The defence is the reason I will not back a Welsh win outright: eight games without a clean sheet, a centre-back marked down for the Bobb goal, and a set-piece record against this opponent that cost them the first meeting. Wales to score, yes; Wales to keep Højlund out, no.
Denmark Form, Stats & Data
Six goals scored and seven conceded in three games, which is as even a split as you will find in League A. Højlund has scored in every match, Damsgaard has been involved in four of the six goals, and the set-piece delivery was enough to beat Wales without a goal from open play. Behind that, Riemer has a back four he admits cannot defend deep, a left side that Portugal went through at will, and a squad so thin that the same players start every game. I expect Denmark to score in Cardiff – they have in every game – and I expect them to concede, because they have let in seven in the two games in which the opponent attacked them.
Wales vs Denmark: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, this is a game to read through the goals conceded rather than the result. Denmark have let in seven in three matches and their manager says they cannot defend in a block; Wales have not kept a clean sheet in eight and gave up two set-piece goals to this opponent a week ago. On the other side of the ball, Højlund has scored in every game, Damsgaard has been Denmark’s creator in every game, and Wales have just shown against Norway what their wide players can do against a full-back pairing under pressure. Both teams have scored in two of Denmark’s three games, and Denmark conceded three in Oslo and four at home to Portugal.
The strongest argument against is the Welsh attack when it is not facing ten men. Wales drew blanks against Portugal and Denmark, had not scored in the first half of any 2026 match until Thursday, and their only two goals in the window came against a Norway side that had a man sent off after 46 minutes. If Bellamy sits deep again, as he did in Copenhagen, a 0-1 or 0-2 is a realistic outcome. That is why the stake is three and not four, and why I prefer both teams to score over a goals line that needs three.
My main bet is **Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.67 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 1-2.