A Bundesliga newcomer against the 2. Bundesliga’s bottom side – Elversberg chase a first last-16 place
Elversberg have never reached the last 16 of the DFB-Pokal. In their first Bundesliga season they are eighth, and tonight they host the team at the bottom of the 2. Bundesliga. Darmstadt have the joint-weakest attack in the second tier, have not scored in two games and have lost their last three away matches 3-0, 5-1 and 4-0. Vincent Wagner’s side also play Mainz at home on Friday, their first midweek double of the season.
„Zwei Heimspiele in drei Tagen – schöner kann es ja gar nicht sein.“ („Two home games in three days – it doesn’t get any better.“) – Elversberg coach Vincent Wagner
Predicted lineups: Elversberg vs Darmstadt
Right-back Jan Gyamerah is out with a suspected muscle-fibre tear from Saturday’s game in Leipzig, and Luca Sirch is expected to replace him. Tom Zimmerschied and Luis Seifert are also out, and Noah Darvich is a doubt with a hamstring problem. Darmstadt are without Luca Marseiler, Merveille Papela, Fabian Nürnberger, Yosuke Furukawa and former Elversberg defender Carlo Sickinger. Florian Kohfeldt is expected to keep the back three that kept a clean sheet against St. Pauli. The Elversberg XI follows SportsMole’s prediction, the Darmstadt XI the forecast from lilienblog.
Elversberg Team News & Preview
The 4-0 defeat in Leipzig looks heavy, but Wagner called the first 75 minutes „das beste Auswärtsspiel, was wir jemals gemacht haben“ („the best away game we have ever played“). It was 0-0 at half-time and David Mokwa had two good chances before Leipzig scored on the counter. Elversberg’s problem was protecting against those breaks, and Wagner wants „eine bessere Konterabsicherung“ tonight.
At home Elversberg have been dangerous. They beat Leverkusen 3-2 and Augsburg 4-3 and lost 2-1 to Bayern, scoring eight goals in three games. Maurice Krattenmacher is the top scorer with three, and Lukas Petkov has the best FotMob rating in the squad. They are also unbeaten in four meetings with Darmstadt, including wins of 4-0 and 3-0.
What works for or against Elversberg
- Eight goals in three Bundesliga home games.
- Unbeaten in four meetings with Darmstadt, including 4-0 and 3-0 wins.
- 2.14 goals conceded per league game and only one clean sheet.
- Gyamerah is out and Mainz visit on Friday.
Darmstadt Team News & Preview
Darmstadt’s last game was a 0-0 at home to St. Pauli, their first clean sheet of the season, but St. Pauli created 1.90 expected goals to Darmstadt’s 0.79. Kohfeldt called it a step towards „Grundstabilität“ („basic stability“). Before that they lost 4-0 at Karlsruhe, and they have failed to score in five of their nine league games.
Away from home the record is very poor: four games, four defeats and one goal scored. Kohfeldt still wants his team to be brave: „Entscheidend ist, dass wir uns trauen, mit dem Ball mutig Fußball zu spielen“ („What matters is that we dare to play brave football on the ball“). He also expects Elversberg to press „mit sehr hohem Pressing“ – very high up the pitch.
What works for or against Darmstadt
- Kept a clean sheet against St. Pauli on Friday.
- One more day of rest than Elversberg.
- Four away league games, four defeats and one goal.
- No goal in their last two games.
Elversberg vs Darmstadt Odds
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Elversberg vs. Darmstadt Form Guide
Elversberg Form, Stats & Data
These are Bundesliga numbers against Bundesliga opponents. Elversberg score 1.71 goals per game against top-flight defences, so a 2. Bundesliga side that has conceded two per game should give them plenty of chances. Their 2.29 expected goals against is the weak point, but much of that came against far stronger attacks than Darmstadt’s.
Darmstadt Form, Stats & Data
These are second-tier figures, and they are poor even at that level: 2.9 shots on target and 0.89 goals per game, with no player above two league goals. Against a Bundesliga side that presses high, Darmstadt will find it hard to get out and create anything.
Elversberg vs Darmstadt: Prediction & Betting Tip
Darmstadt’s away form makes this look like a clear win for the home side. They have lost all four away league games, scoring once and conceding 13, and they come up against a Bundesliga team that has scored eight goals in three home games and is unbeaten in four meetings with Darmstadt, including 4-0 and 3-0 wins. With Elversberg’s home attack in good form, I am backing a win by two or more.
The obvious danger is rotation. Mainz visit on Friday, Gyamerah is out, and Elversberg concede more than two goals per game in the Bundesliga. If Darmstadt nick an early goal, the handicap gets harder. A one-goal win would return the stake, though, and I am backing SV Elversberg -1 Asian Handicap at 1.55 with Winz, expecting a 3-1 home win.