Antwerp’s losing run meets the side that has their number
Five league defeats in a row have dragged Royal Antwerp down to 13th, and the timing of Saturday’s visitors could hardly be worse. Sporting Charleroi are enjoying the best start in their history, seven wins from eight, and they have not lost to Antwerp in six meetings. Marvin Compper, in charge since August, refused to call it a do-or-die game for his own future, but he admitted the pressure is now coming from inside the club.
„Niemand is blij met de gang van zaken. Is dat wel zo, dan hoor je hier niet thuis.“ – Antwerp coach Marvin Compper (“Nobody is happy with the way things are going. If you are, you don’t belong here.”)
Predicted lineups: Antwerp vs Charleroi
Compper has a fully fit squad apart from Mauricio Benítez, who serves the second game of his ban. Bahmed Deuff, who was suspended for the 5-1 defeat at Westerlo, comes back into midfield, while Maxime Busi and Youssef Hamdaoui are available again but are expected to start on the bench. Charleroi get captain Aiham Ousou back after a virus, which matters because he has started seven of their eight league games at centre-back. Massamba Sow (knee) and Antoine Bernier, who is training again after a fractured metatarsal but is not ready for selection, are the absentees. Bernier had started four league games, Sow mostly came off the bench. The line-ups follow La DH’s predictions.
Antwerp Team News & Preview
The slide began with a 4-1 home defeat to Sint-Truiden at the end of August and has not stopped since: 1-0 at Standard, 3-1 at Club Brugge, 0-2 at home to Union and, most recently, a 5-1 hammering at Westerlo. The 1-0 cup win at third-tier Heist last weekend, settled by Thibo Somers, was a clean sheet and little more. Compper’s own explanation for the 20 league goals conceded is telling: more of them have come from Antwerp giving the ball away than from being opened up.
The Bosuil has not been a refuge either. Antwerp have one win from four home league games, against Beveren, plus a chaotic 4-4 with Genk, and they have shipped 11 goals there. Michael Frey, with four league goals, is their main threat, and Antwerp do get shots away, around five on target per game. The issue is what comes back the other way: almost 2.5 expected goals against per match is one of the weakest defensive profiles in the division.
What works for or against Antwerp
- Deuff returns to midfield and the squad is otherwise fit.
- Frey has four league goals.
- Five league defeats in a row.
- 20 goals conceded, 11 of them in four home games.
Charleroi Team News & Preview
Mario Kohnen’s side are third, level on points with Club Brugge and one behind leaders Gent, and their only league defeat came at home to Union, 3-2. On the road they have been ruthless rather than spectacular: 1-0 at Lommel, 3-1 at Kortrijk, 1-0 at Zulte Waregem and 1-0 at Standard a fortnight ago. That is four away wins and one goal conceded. Jakob Napoleon Romsaas, with three assists, is their best-rated player, and Freddy Mbemba and Aurélien Scheidler have three league goals each.
The week has not been calm. After fireworks incidents at their cup tie in Mons, the club took the unusual step of banning its supporters from travelling to Antwerp, and Kohnen said he was „very disappointed and frustrated“. On the pitch, though, the structure is settled: Charleroi keep the ball, around 57% possession on average, and give up little more than one expected goal per game.
What works for or against Charleroi
- Four away league games, four wins, one goal conceded.
- Captain Ousou is back in defence.
- No travelling support after the club banned its fans from the trip.
- Bernier, a starter in four league games, is still not ready.
Antwerp vs Charleroi Odds
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Antwerp vs. Charleroi Form Guide
Antwerp Form, Stats & Data
Antwerp’s attack is not the problem: 1.5 goals a game from about 1.3 expected is a fair return. Defensively, though, they are allowing nearly two and a half expected goals per match, and the actual goals against match that almost exactly, so this is not bad luck.
Charleroi Form, Stats & Data
Charleroi create almost two expected goals per game and concede barely more than one, so their position in the table is backed up by how they actually play. Four clean sheets in eight league games show how rarely they give opponents a way in.
Antwerp vs Charleroi: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am backing Charleroi. They have won every away game so far and conceded once on the road, while Antwerp have lost five league games running and own the worst defence in the division. The history points the same way: Antwerp have lost their last four home games against Charleroi, 1-3, 1-2, 0-2 and 0-1, and they have not beaten them in six meetings.
The strongest argument against is the reaction a wounded side can produce at home. Compper has a near full-strength squad, Deuff is back, and Antwerp still score goals, so they can hurt a Charleroi side that has had an unsettled week off the pitch and travels without its fans. That is why I am keeping the stake moderate. But Charleroi’s away numbers are too good to ignore against a defence this open.
My bet is Sporting Charleroi to win at 1.75 with Winz. I expect a 2-1 away win.