The leakiest defences in two divisions meet under the Borussia-Park floodlights
Gladbach are bottom of the Bundesliga and have conceded 22 goals in seven games, more than anyone else. Karlsruhe arrive from a 6-1 defeat at Magdeburg and have the worst defensive record in the 2. Bundesliga, with 20 goals conceded. Alexander Blessin, in charge since late September, is also without three of his four centre-backs. The two sides met in the same round last season, and Gladbach won 3-1.
„Sechs Stück darfst du nicht kriegen. Dafür treten wir nicht an.“ („You can’t concede six. That’s not what we play for.“) – KSC coach Maximilian Senft after the defeat in Magdeburg
Predicted lineups: Gladbach vs KSC
Gladbach’s defence has to be rebuilt again. Kevin Diks is unavailable for private reasons, Ko Itakura and Jan Leszczynski are out, and strikers Tim Kleindienst and Isac Lidberg are injured too. Blessin has not decided whether Moritz Nicolas or Daniel Batz will play in goal, although he insists Nicolas remains his number one. Karlsruhe goalkeeper Hans Christian Bernat has a back problem and a decision will be made on the day, and Sebastian Jung went off at half-time in Magdeburg with a muscle problem. Moritz Broschinski and Héliton are out.
Gladbach Team News & Preview
Friday’s 3-2 win in Stuttgart was Gladbach’s first league win of the season, and 17-year-old Wael Mohya was the star, scoring one and setting up another. Blessin saw „ein bisschen Licht am Horizont“ („a little light on the horizon“). The defence still conceded twice, though, and goalkeeper Nicolas has made several costly mistakes this season, including in the 4-3 home defeat by Elversberg.
Gladbach’s games have been chaotic all season. They have lost all three home league games, two of them 4-3, and they concede 2.33 expected goals per game. With three centre-backs out, the back three will again be improvised. In attack Shuto Machino, Hugo Bolin and Mohya give them enough to score against a defence that has just conceded six.
What works for or against Gladbach
- Won 3-2 in Stuttgart on Friday.
- Beat Karlsruhe 3-1 in the same round last season.
- 22 goals conceded in seven league games.
- Diks, Itakura and Leszczynski are all missing from the back line.
KSC Team News & Preview
The Magdeburg defeat put Maximilian Senft under real pressure. Karlsruhe conceded four goals in around 15 minutes after the break, two of them penalties after errors in the box, and some supporters are calling for a change of coach. They have lost five of their last seven games, although they did beat Darmstadt 4-0 the week before.
Karlsruhe can still hurt opponents. Captain Marvin Wanitzek is their best player, with four assists and the best FotMob rating in the squad, and they average 5.8 shots on target per game. Senft wants to „maximal herausfordern“ Gladbach („challenge them to the maximum“) „über die volle Dauer“ („over the full 90 minutes“), and he said there is „nothing better than the DFB-Pokal under floodlights“.
What works for or against KSC
- 5.8 shots on target per game in the 2. Bundesliga.
- Wanitzek has four assists and leads the side.
- Lost 6-1 in Magdeburg and have conceded 20 league goals.
- Goalkeeper Bernat and Sebastian Jung are both doubts.
Gladbach vs KSC Odds
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Gladbach Form, Stats & Data
Over three goals conceded per game is an extraordinary number, and the expected goals against of 2.33 show the problem is not just bad luck or poor goalkeeping. Gladbach also score – 1.57 goals per game – so their matches have averaged more than four and a half goals. Neuhaus, their best-rated player, controls the midfield, but the defence behind him is being patched up again.
Karlsruhe Form, Stats & Data
Karlsruhe concede more than two goals per game in the second tier, and their expected goals against of 1.70 is high for that level. Against a Bundesliga attack the gaps should be bigger. Shio Fukuda, a former Gladbach player, is their top scorer, and Wanitzek has created four goals.
Gladbach vs KSC: Prediction & Betting Tip
Both defences are in a bad way. Gladbach concede more than three per game and are missing three centre-backs, while Karlsruhe have shipped 20 league goals, including six on Saturday, and may be without their first-choice goalkeeper. Gladbach’s matches have averaged more than four and a half goals, so I expect plenty of chances at both ends. Rather than the standard 2.5 line, I am going one goal higher because both sides have shown they can concede in clusters.
The risk is that Gladbach, without Kleindienst and Lidberg, win comfortably but without many goals, or that Karlsruhe sit very deep after the Magdeburg defeat. A 3-0 would not be enough. Cup ties can also start cautiously. Even so, I am backing Over 3.5 Goals at 1.96 with Winz and see Gladbach winning 3-1.