A 7-1 hiding three days ago, and now Augsburg: Großaspach’s biggest night
Sonnenhof Großaspach are playing the second round of the DFB-Pokal for the first time in their history, and the build-up has been difficult. On Saturday the newly promoted 3. Liga side lost 7-1 at Wehen Wiesbaden, their heaviest defeat in the division. Augsburg arrive without a league win in five games, but their matches rarely lack goals. The Bundesliga side’s games have produced 30 goals in seven rounds, and their defence is missing two centre-backs.
„Das geht nicht in der 3. Liga.“ („That won’t do in the 3. Liga.“) – Großaspach coach Pascal Reinhardt after the 7-1 defeat in Wiesbaden
Predicted lineups: Großaspach vs Augsburg
Großaspach are missing Deli Hajdini and Lorenz Ender, and Christian Mistl is carrying a knock. Goalkeeper Maximilian Reule, who saved two penalties in the first-round shoot-out win over Bielefeld, should start again. Augsburg have lost Calvin Brackelmann to concussion and Noahkai Banks is also out, so Manuel Baum has to rebuild the back three around Jeffrey Gouweleeuw. Juma Bah was sent off against Union, but his two-game ban applies only to the Bundesliga and he is available tonight. The Augsburg line-up below is a projection from SportsMole.
Großaspach Team News & Preview
The Wiesbaden game was a disaster. Großaspach were 3-1 down at half-time and conceded four more after the break, one of them from the halfway line after Reule had left his goal. Reinhardt was blunt about the defending – „Wie wir das verteidigen, ist einfach nicht gut“ („How we defended that is simply not good enough“) – and promised a tough training session before the cup tie.
The defensive numbers are poor across the season: 25 goals conceded in 11 league games. Großaspach do score, though. Fabian Eisele and Loris Maier have four goals each, they came back from 2-0 down to beat Münster 3-2 ten days ago, and they took Bielefeld to penalties in the first round after a 2-2 draw.
What works for or against Großaspach
- Beat 2. Bundesliga side Bielefeld on penalties in round one.
- Came from 2-0 down to beat Münster 3-2 in their last home game.
- 25 goals conceded in 11 league games.
- Lost 7-1 in Wiesbaden on Saturday.
Augsburg Team News & Preview
Augsburg’s league games have been open from the start: 3-0 against Schalke, 4-1 in Frankfurt, 2-2 with Leverkusen and Bayern, 3-2 at Bremen and 4-3 at Elversberg. Only Saturday’s 1-1 with Union, a game in which Union had a man sent off after 19 minutes, broke the pattern. Fabian Rieder is the best-rated player in the squad with four assists, and Michael Gregoritsch has four goals.
The defence is the worry. Augsburg concede 2.80 expected goals per game, the injuries to Brackelmann and Banks weaken the back three further, and they have kept one clean sheet all season. Baum said his side want to „take the shortest route to Berlin“, and the club’s sporting director called them „klarer Favorit“.
What works for or against Augsburg
- 2.43 goals and 6.7 shots on target per league game.
- Rieder has four assists and the best FotMob rating in the squad.
- No win in five league games.
- 2.80 expected goals conceded per game and only one clean sheet.
Großaspach vs Augsburg Odds
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Großaspach Form, Stats & Data
These are 3. Liga figures, but they still tell the story: more than two goals conceded per game and 4.9 shots on target in their own matches. Großaspach like to have the ball, with 53% possession, which suggests they will not simply sit deep, and that should leave space for Augsburg’s attackers.
Augsburg Form, Stats & Data
Augsburg produce 2.19 expected goals and allow 2.80 per game, so their matches are open at both ends. Against Bundesliga sides that has meant a lot of goals; against a 3. Liga team that has just conceded seven, it should mean even more chances for Augsburg, while Großaspach will still get opportunities.
Großaspach vs Augsburg: Prediction & Betting Tip
Two leaky defences meet in Aspach. Augsburg’s league games have averaged more than four goals, all three of their away games have had at least four, and they arrive without Brackelmann and Banks. Großaspach conceded seven on Saturday and 25 in 11 league games, but they have shown they can score against higher-level opponents. With both defences this open, I expect more than three goals, so I am going a line higher than the usual 2.5.
The main risk is that Augsburg dominate without finishing their chances, as they did against ten-man Union on Saturday, or that Großaspach sit deep after the Wiesbaden thrashing and make it a slow game. A 3-0 would also lose the bet. Even so, the defensive records on both sides point to goals. I am backing Over 3.5 Goals at 1.93 with Winz and expect a 1-3 away win.