Three straight defeats and a manager under fire – but Fluminense get their big names back against an Inter side short of goalkeepers
Fluminense have had a miserable fortnight. They went out of the Copa Libertadores semi-finals on penalties against Palmeiras on 21 October and have lost their last three league games, against Flamengo, Santos and, on Saturday, bottom side Chapecoense. Marcão called the 2-1 defeat in Chapecó „a night to forget“, and the pressure on him from the stands is growing. Still, they are fifth, one point off the Libertadores group-stage places. Internacional arrive 16th, one point above the relegation zone, on the back of a 3-0 win over Botafogo, but with a goalkeeping crisis.
“Foi uma noite para esquecer.” (“It was a night to forget.”) – Fluminense manager Marcão after the 2-1 defeat at Chapecoense
Predicted lineups: Fluminense vs Internacional
Marcão rested Thiago Silva and Canobbio in Chapecó, and Savarino served a suspension. All three are expected back, according to Terra and Rádio Grenal. Renê is favourite to start at left-back ahead of Guilherme Arana. Julián Millán, Martinelli and top scorer John Kennedy are injured. Inter have travelled without Matheus Cunha (elbow) and Anthoni (knee), and Sergio Rochet is still out after back surgery, so Kauan Jesus keeps his place in goal. Gabriel Mercado, Villagra and Vitinho are back from suspension, and Eduardo Baptista is expected to use a back three. Antonio Sanabria is not in the squad.
Fluminense Team News & Preview
The Maracanã has been Fluminense’s fortress all season. They have scored 29 goals in 16 home league games and have failed to score at home only once. They also keep the ball better than any other side in the league, with 58.5 per cent possession on average.
The problem is the last three weeks. The league defeats against Santos and Chapecoense came either side of two draining semi-final legs against Palmeiras, and Marcão rotated in Chapecó. Now the Libertadores is over, Fluminense’s next game after this one is not until 6 November, and Marcão gets his experienced players back. Hulk has seven league goals and set up Guga’s equaliser in Chapecó.
What works for or against Fluminense
- 29 goals in 16 home league games, scoring in 15 of them.
- Thiago Silva, Savarino and Canobbio return.
- Three league defeats in a row and a manager under pressure.
- Lost the first meeting 2-0 in Porto Alegre.
Internacional Team News & Preview
Inter have picked up since Eduardo Baptista took over, with two wins, a draw and a defeat in his four games, and the only loss came after a red card in the 15th minute. Saturday’s 3-0 win over Botafogo in heavy rain lifted them out of the bottom four, but only just: they are one point ahead of Grêmio, and a defeat tonight could send them back into the drop zone.
Away from home they have been far less convincing. Inter have scored 15 and conceded 23 in 16 away league games, with only two clean sheets, and now Baptista has to rely on Kauan Jesus with three senior goalkeepers unavailable. The returns of Mercado and Villagra help, but this remains a side that has relied on home form to stay up.
What works for or against Internacional
- Only two clean sheets in 16 away league games.
- Three senior goalkeepers are unavailable.
- Beat Botafogo 3-0 on Saturday.
- Mercado, Villagra and Vitinho return from suspension.
Fluminense vs Internacional Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Fluminense vs. Internacional Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Fluminense vs. Internacional Form Guide
Fluminense Form, Stats & Data
Fluminense have the third-best team rating in the league and create more than they concede on expected goals. Top scorer John Kennedy is out for the season, so the goals have to come from Hulk, Savarino and Canobbio, but at home that has rarely been a problem.
Internacional Form, Stats & Data
Inter’s expected goals are better than their position suggests, which is the main reason they could cause problems here. They rarely dominate the ball, though, and away from home that has left them under pressure for long spells.
Fluminense vs Internacional: Prediction & Betting Tip
Fluminense’s recent results look bad, but they came alongside a Libertadores semi-final and, in Chapecó, with key players rested or suspended. Tonight Marcão has only the league to think about and gets Thiago Silva, Savarino and Canobbio back, at a ground where his side have scored in 15 of 16 league games. Inter have only two away clean sheets all season and are down to Kauan Jesus in goal.
The strongest argument against the bet is Fluminense’s mood. Three defeats in a row, an angry crowd and a manager whose future is open can turn the Maracanã against the home side, and Inter, fighting for survival, beat Flu 2-0 in the first meeting and arrive full of confidence. If the hosts concede first, things could get tense. I still back Fluminense to win at 1.79 with Winz with a 3/10 stake, and my prediction is a 2-0 home win.