The Eliteserien’s two leakiest defences meet again, eleven days after Aalesund won 4-1 in Kristiansund
Kristiansund and Aalesund are 15th and 14th in the Eliteserien, and both have a relegation six-pointer at the weekend: Aalesund host Sandefjord on Saturday, and Kristiansund go to Sarpsborg on Sunday. Before that comes a county derby in the cup, and Kristiansund’s first home cup tie in more than three years. The league meeting on 17 October finished 4-1 to Aalesund at Nordmøre stadion. Tufekčić gave the hosts the lead, and Marcus Haagensen Reed scored twice as Aalesund turned it round.
Predicted lineups: Kristiansund vs Aalesund
No line-ups had been released at the time of writing, so both XIs below are Sunday’s starting sides. Aalesund are without Reed (bruise) and Simen Haram, while Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen and Philip Sandvik Aukland are expected back in about a week. Kristiansund have no injuries listed. With six-pointers at the weekend, both Amund Skiri and Kjetil Rekdal could make changes.
Kristiansund Team News & Preview
Kristiansund have the second-weakest attack in the division, with 25 goals in 24 games, but their matches are rarely tight because the defence leaks. They have conceded 49, including nine in their last three league games against Bodø/Glimt, Aalesund and KFUM, and they are winless in five league games. Leander Alvheim has scored 12 of their 25 league goals.
Six of their last nine league games have had four or more goals, including an 8-1 defeat at Viking. Sunday’s 2-2 against KFUM was a familiar story: Kristiansund scored twice and still could not keep the opposition out.
What works for or against Kristiansund
- 49 league goals conceded, nine in the last three.
- Six of the last nine league games had four or more goals.
- Only 25 league goals, 1.04 per game.
- Sarpsborg away on Sunday in the relegation fight.
Aalesund Team News & Preview
Rekdal’s side are built the opposite way to their hosts: 40 scored, 53 conceded, and the highest expected goals against in the league at 2.28 per game. Mathias Christensen has ten league goals and is also their highest-rated player. Their games have regularly got out of hand, with a 6-2 home defeat by Tromsø and a 5-5 draw with Vålerenga among their recent results.
The cup has not been straightforward either: in the previous round they won only 4-3 at lower-league Førde. Sunday’s league game at Sarpsborg ended in another defeat, 2-1, and Reed misses this one.
What works for or against Aalesund
- Highest expected goals against in the Eliteserien, 2.28 per game.
- Christensen (10 league goals) started on Sunday.
- Reed, who scored twice in the league meeting, is out.
- Sandefjord at home on Saturday, so rotation is possible.
Kristiansund vs Aalesund Odds
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Kristiansund vs. Aalesund Stats Comparison
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Kristiansund vs. Aalesund Form Guide
Kristiansund Form, Stats & Data
Kristiansund’s expected goals against of 2.10 per game is second only to their opponents‘ and matches what they actually concede. Their own attack, with 3.5 shots on target per game, is the weak link for an over bet, so a lot depends on Aalesund taking their chances.
Aalesund Form, Stats & Data
Aalesund create 1.62 expected goals per game and score 1.67, so their attack is genuine rather than lucky. At the other end, 2.28 expected goals against is the worst in the Eliteserien, and Kristiansund scored first against them only eleven days ago.
Kristiansund vs Aalesund: Prediction & Betting Tip
These are the two weakest defences in the Eliteserien by expected goals against, Kristiansund’s games regularly reach four goals, and the league meeting eleven days ago produced five. Aalesund’s league games have produced 93 goals in 24 matches, almost four per game.
The strongest argument against the bet is the weekend. Both clubs have relegation six-pointers within four days, so Skiri and Rekdal may rotate, and Aalesund lose Reed, who scored twice on 17 October. A cautious, low-tempo derby is possible. I still back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.13 with Winz with a 2/10 stake, and my prediction is 2-2 after 90 minutes. The goals market is for regular time only.