León need a win, Chivas are chasing first place
León are ninth with 22 points, level with Pachuca and Tijuana, and a defeat could drop them as low as 12th with one round left. Chivas have already qualified for the Liguilla and are third on 29 points, two behind América and three behind Cruz Azul, with first place still in reach. They arrive on three straight wins, unbeaten in seven away league games, and with almost everyone fit.
„From our side, calm, and yes, we have to win at home, that’s the reality.“ – Javier Gandolfi on the Chivas game (via Bolavip, translated from Spanish)
Predicted lineups: León vs Chivas
León have no injuries, and the line-up below follows ClaroSports‘ prediction. Gandolfi has left José Ramírez and Santiago Londoño out of the squad. Juan Guevara is one booking away from a ban that would rule him out of the final round at Santos. Chivas are expected to repeat the XI that beat Atlante, with Santiago Sandoval leading the line. Miguel Tapias is still out, and Miguel Gómez is a doubt after a muscle problem returned. Luis Romo is back after a muscle injury picked up on international duty.
León Team News & Preview
León have won four, drawn one and lost two at home, but their form has dipped. Since a 2-0 win at Tigres, they have drawn 1-1 with Toluca and lost 2-1 at Cruz Azul, where Gandolfi felt a penalty decision turned the game. Before that they lost 5-3 to América. They finish away at Santos, so this is their last home game of the regular season.
Gandolfi has insisted that one result will not change his approach, despite some outside calls for changes. Daniel Arcila has been their highest-rated player, and the attack has been reasonable, with 1.53 expected goals per game. The issue is at the back: they allow 1.46.
What works for or against León
- Four wins in seven home league games.
- No injuries in the squad.
- One win in their last four league games.
- 1.46 expected goals allowed per game.
Chivas Team News & Preview
Chivas have the best defensive record of these two sides by a distance: 14 goals conceded in 15 games and 1.07 expected goals allowed per game. On the road they have scored ten and conceded five without losing. Their last three games were a 1-0 win over Necaxa, a 1-0 win at Monterrey and a 4-2 win over Atlante, when Sandoval scored twice.
Roberto Alvarado has been their best player this season and shares the scoring lead with Sandoval on five goals each. Milito’s side want to finish strongly with first place as the target. Five Chivas players, among them Rangel, Campillo, Romo, Sandoval and Alvarado, have been called up by Mexico for the Nations League games against Jamaica later this month.
What works for or against Chivas
- Unbeaten in seven away league games.
- Three straight league wins.
- Four of their seven away games were draws.
- Five players called up by Mexico after this game.
León vs Chivas Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Half-Time/Full-Time
León vs. Guadalajara Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
León vs. Guadalajara Form Guide
León Form, Stats & Data
León’s numbers are those of a mid-table side: they create and concede at almost the same rate. Their results are close to what the chances suggest, so there is no hidden quality waiting to come through.
Guadalajara Form, Stats & Data
Chivas control games with the ball and give little away. Their defensive numbers are clearly the better of the two sides here, and that is what makes them so hard to beat away from home.
León vs Chivas: Prediction & Betting Tip
Chivas are the better side, in better form and with a nearly full squad. They have not lost away all season, they concede little, and León have won only once in four. León have to attack, which should give Chivas the space to hurt them on the break. I like Chivas to avoid defeat here, and I want the stake back if they draw, as four of their seven away games have ended level.
The strongest argument against is motivation. León need the points far more than Chivas, who are already through and have five players heading off with Mexico straight after this game. León’s home record is solid, and they won three of the last five meetings, even if Chivas won the most recent one 5-0. Because the pressure is all on the hosts, I am keeping the stake small. Chivas Draw No Bet at 1.55 with Winz is my bet at 1/10, and I expect a 1-2 away win.