Twenty-one goals on one bad knee: Athletico’s Viveros problem meets a blunt Grêmio
Pre-match update (00:32 CET): The official team sheets are not out yet, and the latest reports from Porto Alegre and Curitiba do not change my read. Viveros travelled with the squad and is still expected to start through the pain in his left knee, most likely with his minutes managed, while Pavón and Caito remain out for Grêmio and Athletico are without the suspended Jádson and Gilberto. I am sticking with Under 2.5 Goals at 1.86 with Winz at 3/10. The odds quoted are from the time of publication on 29 October, so prices may have moved since. I will confirm the line-ups here shortly before kick-off.
Kevin Viveros has been Athletico’s season. The Colombian has 21 of their 50 league goals, but he has spent this week nursing a painful left knee, missed training sessions and travelled to Porto Alegre with the expectation that he plays through it for as long as he can. Grêmio have their own hole to fill: Cristian Pavón, their best-rated player, is out with a muscle injury, and the side Renato Gaúcho sends out to fight their way out of the relegation zone has scored only 35 goals all season.
“Vamos acreditar até o final. O Grêmio depende de si próprio.” (“We will believe until the end. Grêmio’s fate is in our own hands.”) – Renato Gaúcho after the 1-0 win at Coritiba
Predicted lineups: Grêmio vs Athletico
Grêmio lost two starters on the right in the space of a week: Pavón, who has also filled in at right wing-back, and Diego Caito, injured at Coritiba. Enamorado is set to replace Pavón in the front three and João Pedro comes in at wing-back, while Kannemann is back in the squad. Athletico are without Gilberto and Jádson through suspension, Léo Derik is expected to start on the left, and Viveros is listed up front despite his knee – Jorge Rivaldo is the alternative if he cannot start. Dantas, Benavídez and Kerwin Vargas have been cleared to return, but only for short spells.
Grêmio Team News & Preview
Braithwaite’s 92nd-minute winner at Coritiba on Sunday ended a seven-game winless run in the league, and Renato used the moment to call for more than 50,000 people at the Arena. The cheaper member tickets sold out within days. Grêmio are 17th, one point behind Internacional, so the pressure on this game is real – but so is the schedule, because the Copa do Brasil semi-final first leg against Atlético Mineiro follows on Sunday.
The Arena has not been the fortress it used to be either: one win in the last five home league games. Carlos Vinícius carries the scoring with 11 league goals, but behind him there is little volume, and losing Pavón takes away the player who supplied much of the width and the final pass from the right.
What works for or against Grêmio
- Twelve set-piece goals this season, among the best returns in the league.
- A full house is expected after the late win at Coritiba.
- Pavón (FotMob 7.35) and right wing-back Caito are both new absentees.
- Only 3.8 shots on target per game and one home win in five.
- Copa do Brasil semi-final against Atlético Mineiro on Sunday.
Athletico Team News & Preview
Odair Hellmann named the problem himself after last weekend’s 1-1 at Vitória: “Nós estamos sofrendo gols de bola parada” – we are conceding from set pieces. Seventeen of Athletico’s 38 league goals against have come from dead balls, and the equaliser in Salvador arrived from a corner. In open play the side has been harder to break down, and only Flamengo and Palmeiras have a better goals-against record in the division.
The suspensions hit the right side of the team, where Gilberto has been a regular, and the centre of midfield, where Jádson has partnered Luiz Gustavo. Then there is Viveros. Without him Athletico’s attack looks very different – no other player is anywhere near his tally – and the 0-2 home defeat by Palmeiras earlier this month showed how little they create when he is shackled.
What works for or against Athletico
- Fourth in the table and only 1.19 goals conceded per game.
- Viveros (21 league goals) is playing through knee pain.
- Gilberto and Jádson are suspended.
- Seventeen of 38 goals conceded have come from set pieces.
Grêmio vs Athletico Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Half-Time/Full-Time
Grêmio vs. Athletico PR Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Grêmio vs. Athletico PR Form Guide
Grêmio Form, Stats & Data
Grêmio score almost exactly what they create – 1.09 goals from 1.09 expected goals per game – so there is no hidden attacking upside waiting to arrive. The worrying number is at the back: 1.64 xG conceded per match, which tells me they have been fortunate not to concede more. Against a fully fit Athletico that would push me towards goals; against a side whose main finisher is limping, it matters less.
Athletico PR Form, Stats & Data
Athletico score more than their 1.39 xG per game, and most of that overperformance has one name on it. Their top scorer and top-rated player are the same man, which makes his fitness the single most important variable in this game. Their 47% possession also fits a side that is comfortable letting opponents have the ball and waiting for transitions.
Grêmio vs Athletico: Prediction & Betting Tip
This looks like a match between a nervous home side that struggles to hit the target and an away side without two regulars and with its goalscorer on one good leg. The first meeting this season finished 0-0, and Grêmio’s need for points is more likely to make them cautious than open, with a cup semi-final three days later. I expect a low-scoring game, and I can see it finishing 1-0 to Grêmio.
Set pieces are the clear danger. Grêmio have scored twelve from dead balls and Athletico have conceded seventeen that way, so one corner can change everything, and both teams‘ home and away games this season have averaged close to three goals. If Viveros starts and stays on for an hour, the case weakens too. For those reasons I keep it at 3/10 and back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.86 with Winz.