Copa do Brasil on Sunday, title race tonight – who wants this derby more?
Pre-match update (23:15 CET): Andrés Gómez, Vasco’s top league scorer, has been left out of the squad with his foot problem, and Cuesta misses out with a hip issue. Flamengo are without Alex Sandro (thigh) and Saúl as well as the suspended Carrascal, with Ayrton Lucas expected at left-back. Palmeiras‘ 0-0 draw at Santos on Wednesday leaves them level with Flamengo on 70 points, so a win here would put Flamengo three clear. The official starting XIs had not been released when I wrote this, so the lineups below are based on the latest local reports. None of this changes my view: I am sticking with Flamengo to win at 1.82 with Winz for 4/10. The odds quoted are from publication on 29 October; prices may have moved since.
Vasco’s big week starts on Sunday, not tonight. Pedro Emanuel’s side travel to Palmeiras for the first leg of the Copa do Brasil semi-final three days after this Clássico dos Milhões, and Rio’s local press already expect him to manage minutes. Flamengo have no such distraction any more. Knocked out of the Libertadores on penalties by Estudiantes a week ago, Leonardo Jardim’s side now have one target left: a league title race in which they sit level on 70 points with Palmeiras, but with a game in hand.
The derby has also moved. Police and the CBF refused to sanction São Januário, so it is played at the Nilton Santos with the tickets split evenly between both sets of supporters.
“Sabemos que ser campeão brasileiro já é uma motivação extraordinária, por isso temos que recuperar energia.” (“We know becoming Brazilian champions is an extraordinary motivation, so we have to recover our energy.”) – Leonardo Jardim after the 3-2 win over Atlético Mineiro
Predicted lineups: Vasco vs Flamengo
Andrés Gómez, Vasco’s top scorer in the league with five goals, went off against Corinthians with pain in his left foot and has been left out of the squad; Marino Hinestroza, who scored twice in the last four minutes of that game, is the likely replacement on the wing. Carlos Cuesta, Cauan Barros and Mateus Carvalho are injured. Flamengo lose Jorge Carrascal to a suspension for three bookings, which is a real blow because he has seven league goals and converted the stoppage-time penalty against Atlético. Danilo (jaw surgery), Saúl (leg) and Alex Sandro (thigh) are out, so Ayrton Lucas is expected to start at left-back, while Evertton Araújo is back in the squad after a long thigh injury.
Vasco Team News & Preview
“Senti a equipe desgastada” – I felt the team was worn out – was Pedro Emanuel’s verdict after Saturday’s 3-2 comeback win over Corinthians, which came at the end of 23 days without a proper break. That run included the 3-1 home defeat by Boca Juniors that ended their Copa Sudamericana campaign, and the cup semi-final against Palmeiras is now the competition that can still define Vasco’s season. Bruno Duarte and Paulo Henrique are among the players local reporters expect to be protected in some way.
Vasco’s attacking numbers are better than their 13th place suggests. They average 1.61 expected goals per game, the fourth-best figure in the division, and they keep the ball well. The problem is at the other end: 45 goals conceded in 31 matches and only four clean sheets, which is why so many of their home games turn into chases.
What works for or against Vasco
- 1.61 expected goals per game – only three Série A sides create more.
- Hinestroza scored twice after the 86th minute to turn the Corinthians game around.
- Palmeiras away in the Copa do Brasil semi-final on Sunday.
- Four clean sheets in 31 league games.
- No São Januário: the derby is played at the Nilton Santos with a 50/50 ticket split.
Flamengo Team News & Preview
The shoot-out defeat by Estudiantes hurt. Jardim admitted that he, his staff and the players spent the first two days in mourning, and Monday’s 3-2 win over Atlético Mineiro came only through Carrascal’s penalty with the last kick. That scoreline undersells Flamengo’s control of the game, though: they had 28 shots against a side that sat deep and countered.
Away from the Maracanã, Flamengo have been the most reliable side in the league among the title contenders, with nine wins from 16 games and only 15 goals conceded. Pedro has 16 league goals, Samuel Lino nine plus a team-high FotMob rating, and Arrascaeta is fit to run the game. The concern is freshness: there are fewer than 72 hours between the Atlético game and this one, and Carrascal’s absence removes the player who has given Jardim goals from the bench and from midfield.
What works for or against Flamengo
- League-best attack with 64 goals, and only 27 conceded.
- Nine away wins and a 32-15 goal difference on the road.
- Unbeaten in nine league games, with eight wins.
- Carrascal (7 league goals) is suspended.
- Less than 72 hours to recover after Monday's game and an emotional Libertadores exit.
Vasco vs Flamengo Odds
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Vasco da Gama vs. Flamengo Stats Comparison
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Vasco da Gama Form, Stats & Data
The gap between 1.10 expected goals against and 1.45 actual goals conceded is the one I would focus on. It is not a single freak result: Vasco have kept four clean sheets all season, and the 3-1 home defeat by Boca, after winning the first leg in Buenos Aires, showed how quickly a decent position unravels. Against a Flamengo side that finishes its chances, that matters more than possession or chance creation.
Flamengo Form, Stats & Data
Flamengo lead the division in expected goals for and against, so their results are not running ahead of their performances. Fourteen clean sheets in 32 games underline it. Without Carrascal, most of the creative load falls on Arrascaeta and Lino, but this is still the deepest attacking squad in the league.
Vasco vs Flamengo: Prediction & Betting Tip
The two clubs are heading into this game with different priorities. Vasco have a cup semi-final in São Paulo on Sunday and a squad their own manager calls tired; Flamengo have nothing left to play for except the league, and they cannot afford to drop points with Palmeiras level on 70. Add the clear gap in quality at both ends of the pitch and I see Flamengo winning this more often than not, even on tired legs.
What could go wrong? Flamengo played a high-tempo game on Monday and lose Carrascal, and a derby crowd split down the middle can drag a tired favourite into the kind of scrappy 1-1 that Vasco would happily take. Hinestroza’s late goals against Corinthians show Vasco do not give up. I still think Flamengo’s away form and Vasco’s priorities point one way, so I am taking Flamengo to win at 1.82 with Winz for 4/10 and expect it to finish 1-2.