Four goals conceded in nine games – Lieberknecht’s Kaiserslautern take their wall to Hannover
Torsten Lieberknecht is expecting a cup battle, and his team are built for one. Kaiserslautern have conceded four goals in nine 2. Bundesliga games, won 1-0 in Nuremberg on Saturday to end the hosts‘ 14-game unbeaten run, and sit third. Hannover are 16th, have one point from Sandro Wagner’s three games in charge and arrive after a 2-0 derby defeat in Braunschweig that was overshadowed by serious crowd trouble. Both teams also lose their leading league scorer.
“Ich erwarte eine Pokalschlacht, auf die sich meine Mannschaft entsprechend einstellen muss.” (“I expect a cup battle, and my team has to prepare for that.”) – Kaiserslautern coach Torsten Lieberknecht
Predicted lineups: Hannover vs Kaiserslautern
Wagner announced two weeks ago that Pascal Loretz would play in the cup instead of Leo Weinkauf. He is also without Lars Gindorf, who is recovering from an infection, plus Bastian Allgeier, Benedikt Pichler, Joschua Siewert, Karl Steinmann and Mustapha Bundu. Lieberknecht plans several like-for-like changes to give squad players a chance, and Erencan Yardımcı, scorer of the winner in Nuremberg, misses out with a bruised Achilles. Jacob Rasmussen, Kelven Frees and Enis Kamga are also unavailable.
Hannover Team News & Preview
Wagner did not hide his anger after Braunschweig, saying the 0-2 annoyed him enormously and that the cup tie must be played with maximum energy. Since he replaced Christian Titz, Hannover have lost 3-0 in Magdeburg, drawn 1-1 with St. Pauli and lost in the derby, scoring a single goal in the process.
The underlying numbers suggest Hannover deserve a little more than eight league goals: they create 1.70 expected goals per game, far more than the 0.89 they actually score. But Gindorf, their top scorer with three goals and their best-rated player, is missing, and without him the problem of finishing chances gets bigger rather than smaller.
What works for or against Hannover
- 1.70 expected goals per league game, far more than the 0.89 they score.
- One goal in three games under Wagner.
- Top scorer Gindorf and five more players are out.
- Won 9-1 in the first round and have won both previous games refereed by Oldhafer.
Kaiserslautern Team News & Preview
Julian Krahl is the reason Kaiserslautern sit third. The goalkeeper has a FotMob rating of 8.01 after 810 minutes, and the team concede 0.44 goals per game against 1.36 expected. That gap is large and may not last for a full season, but it reflects a side that defends its box with numbers and does not open up.
At the other end, Lieberknecht’s team are no more prolific than Hannover: nine goals in nine league games, and Yardımcı, who scored three of them including the winner on Saturday, is out. The 1-0 in Nuremberg was a typical Kaiserslautern performance, with a header deciding a tight game.
What works for or against Kaiserslautern
- Four goals conceded in nine league games.
- Only nine league goals, and top scorer Yardımcı is out.
- The defensive record relies heavily on Krahl's saves.
- Hertha visit on Saturday in a top-of-the-table game.
Hannover vs Kaiserslautern Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Half-Time/Full-Time
Hannover vs. Kaiserslautern Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Hannover vs. Kaiserslautern Form Guide
Hannover Form, Stats & Data
The 1.70 xG is the one number that worries me about an under bet. Hannover get shots away, 5.4 on target per game, but they have scored at roughly half their expected rate. Small samples can swing quickly, yet the one player converting chances most often, Gindorf, is not available tonight.
Kaiserslautern Form, Stats & Data
Kaiserslautern’s matches average 1.44 goals, the lowest figure in this preview. Their expected numbers point to tighter margins than the table shows, but even those – 1.47 for and 1.36 against – describe a team whose games are rarely open.
Hannover vs Kaiserslautern: Prediction & Betting Tip
This is a game between a team that has scored once in three matches under its new coach and the best defence in the division, which has its own top scorer missing. Lieberknecht wants a battle, not a shootout, and Hannover’s nerves after the derby defeat point the same way. Only one of Kaiserslautern’s last five league games had more than two goals.
Hannover’s chance creation is the danger, because 1.70 expected goals a game will eventually produce more than 0.89 real ones, and Krahl cannot keep saving at his current rate forever. If that turn comes tonight, this bet loses. I still back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.23 with Winz with a 4/10 stake, and my prediction is 1-1 after 90 minutes. The goals market here is for regular time only, so any extra time does not count.