Without Zoma, against a Leverkusen side short of forwards – why I don’t expect a goal-fest
Nürnberg came into the weekend unbeaten in 14 competitive games and with their top scorer in form. They leave for the BayArena with neither: Kaiserslautern beat them 1-0 on Saturday, and Mohamed Alì Zoma, scorer of seven league goals, dislocated his shoulder and has had surgery. Leverkusen are favourites, but they are hardly at full strength either. Moussa Diaby joined a long injury list in Sunday’s 3-0 defeat at Hoffenheim, a game in which Carles Martínez’s side managed one shot on target.
“Unser Ziel ist es, Leverkusen ins Wanken zu bringen.” (“Our aim is to make Leverkusen wobble.”) – Nürnberg coach Miroslav Klose
Predicted lineups: Leverkusen vs Nürnberg
Janis Blaswich is Leverkusen’s cup goalkeeper again, and Loïc Badé misses out after being stretchered off with a head injury on Sunday. Diaby (thigh, out until after the international break), Martin Terrier, Christian Kofane, Eliesse Ben Seghir, Guéla Doué and Kennet Eichhorn are also unavailable, so Malik Tillman, who replaced Diaby at Hoffenheim, is likely to start on the right. Nürnberg have Jan Reichert in goal and hope centre-back Fynn Otto shakes off a knee problem; he trained on Tuesday and travelled. Finn Ole Becker is out after surgery.
Leverkusen Team News & Preview
The defeat in Sinsheim ended a run of six straight wins and was alarming in its detail: 0.62 expected goals, one shot on target and Patrik Schick, their top scorer with six league goals, barely involved. Martínez pointed to Leverkusen’s recent home form, and the 4-0 against Wehen Wiesbaden in the first round and the 2-0 over OFI Crete show they can still control games at the BayArena.
The squad is thin in attacking areas, though. Diaby and Terrier are two of the most direct players in the side, Kofane and Ben Seghir are the obvious alternatives, and all four are out. With Stuttgart at home on Saturday, Martínez may also use the cup to manage minutes rather than chase a big score.
What works for or against Leverkusen
- Won six games in a row before Sunday's defeat.
- One shot on target and 0.62 xG at Hoffenheim.
- Diaby, Terrier, Kofane, Ben Seghir, Doué and Badé are all unavailable.
- Schick has six Bundesliga goals and is their best-rated player.
Nürnberg Team News & Preview
Klose admitted Leverkusen are clear favourites, but his team are second in the 2. Bundesliga for good reason. They average 2.3 goals per game and dominate the ball, with 57.9% possession. The question is how much of that survives without Zoma, who was their top scorer and highest-rated player on FotMob. Without him in the starting line-up on Saturday they did not score at all, with Eric Porstner’s effort against the bar the closest they came.
Piet Scobel, with five goals, now leads the line, supported by Julian Justvan and the Bayern loanee Javier Fernández. Defensively Nürnberg are more vulnerable than their 12 goals conceded suggest: they allow 1.80 expected goals per game, and their 4-4 draw with Wolfsburg shows what happens when games open up.
What works for or against Nürnberg
- Second in the 2. Bundesliga, with 21 goals in nine games.
- Top scorer Zoma is out until the winter break.
- Failed to score against Kaiserslautern on Saturday.
- 1.80 expected goals conceded per league game.
Leverkusen vs Nürnberg Odds
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Leverkusen vs. Nuremberg Stats Comparison
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Leverkusen Form, Stats & Data
Two expected goals per game is a strong figure, but it was produced with Diaby, Terrier and Kofane available, and all three are missing now. Leverkusen also concede 1.64 expected goals, so they are not a side that shuts games down completely; this preview depends more on their reduced attack than on their defence.
Nuremberg Form, Stats & Data
These are 2. Bundesliga figures, so they flatter Nürnberg against Bundesliga opposition. A third of their league goals came from Zoma, and the 1.86 xG per game will drop without him. Midfielder Adam Markhiev, rated 7.88, is now the key figure in their build-up.
Leverkusen vs Nürnberg: Prediction & Betting Tip
A Bundesliga side at home to a second-tier team usually suggests plenty of goals, but I think they will be harder to come by here. Leverkusen should win, but their attack has lost four forwards and produced one shot on target at the weekend, while Nürnberg have just lost a striker responsible for a third of their goals and could not score on Saturday. I see this as a game Leverkusen control and win by two, not a shootout.
The risk is the defensive side of both teams. Leverkusen concede 1.71 goals per game in the Bundesliga, Nürnberg drew 4-4 with Wolfsburg earlier this month, and a single early goal could open everything up. That is why the stake is 3/10, but I am backing Under 3.5 Goals at 2.20 with Winz. My prediction is a 2-0 Leverkusen win after 90 minutes.