One goal in three games under Gilardino meets six straight Udinese defeats
Two of the three teams on four points meet at the Tardini, and neither has given its supporters much to cheer in front of goal. Parma have scored once in three games since Alberto Gilardino replaced Carlos Cuesta, while Udinese have lost six in a row and managed a single goal in the last four. Kosta Runjaic is under pressure in Udine, and Parma’s chief executive Federico Cherubini spoke publicly this week to calm nerves, which tells you how tense this relegation six-pointer is already.
“Non è decisiva, ma è certamente importante.” (“It isn’t decisive, but it is certainly important.”) – Parma CEO Federico Cherubini
Predicted lineups: Parma vs Udinese
Parma are without Gaetano Nicolussi Caviglia, Pontus Almqvist and Nesta Elphege, and the Italian papers disagree on Gilardino’s back line, with Diego Carlos possibly rested after his own goal against Lazio. Udinese’s problems are in defence. Oumar Solet missed the Milan game with a muscle problem and is out again, David Alaba has a calf injury, and Idrissa Gueye and Vakoun Bayo are also unavailable. Nicolò Zaniolo is expected to start behind Keinan Davis.
Parma Team News & Preview
The local paper SportParma has taken to calling this the most harmless attack in Europe, and the numbers make it hard to argue. Parma have five league goals in eight games, a FotMob team rating of 6.47 and 3.5 shots on target per match. Under Gilardino they have lost to Torino, Inter and Lazio, scoring only Simone Lontani’s stoppage-time goal at the Olimpico on Saturday.
The defence has not been the solid base a new manager usually builds first. Parma conceded eight in those three games, and one of the goals in Rome came from their own mistake, with goalkeeper Edoardo Corvi losing the ball for Diego Carlos’s own goal. That said, the opponents were Torino, Inter and Lazio. Udinese’s attack is a very different proposition.
What works for or against Parma
- Five league goals in eight games, one in three under Gilardino.
- Eight goals conceded in Gilardino's three matches.
- Two of those three defeats came against Inter and Lazio, two of the top three.
Udinese Team News & Preview
Six straight defeats have put Runjaic’s job under scrutiny. According to Messaggero Veneto the club are unlikely to act before the weekend visit of Roma, but Gianluca Nani is watching closely. The losing run started with a 5-3 defeat at Inter, and since then Udinese have scored once in four games: 0-1 against Cagliari, 1-2 in Turin, 0-3 at home to Lecce and 0-2 against Milan.
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp, with three goals, is the only real source of goals, and the injuries at the back mean another reshuffled defence in front of Maduka Okoye. Udinese allow 2.36 expected goals per game, the worst figure in this fixture, so the defence is the area that could break this bet open.
What works for or against Udinese
- Six league defeats in a row.
- One goal in the last four league games.
- Solet, Alaba, Gueye and Bayo are all unavailable.
- Ekkelenkamp has three goals and is their highest-rated player on FotMob.
Parma vs Udinese Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Half-Time/Full-Time
Parma vs. Udinese Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Parma vs. Udinese Form Guide
Parma Form, Stats & Data
0.78 expected goals per game is the number that shapes this preview. Parma are not unlucky in front of goal; they simply do not create much, and their goals per game sit close to that low expected figure. Their best-rated player is centre-back Mariano Troilo, which says a lot about where Parma spend their matches.
Udinese Form, Stats & Data
Three of Udinese’s nine league goals came in one game at Inter, so the 1.13 per game flatters what they have produced since. The 2.36 xGA is genuinely poor, but much of it was built against Inter, Milan and Torino, sides with far more attacking quality than Parma.
Parma vs Udinese: Prediction & Betting Tip
At the bottom of the table, fear of losing usually counts for more than ambition, and both managers need above all not to lose this one. Parma barely create chances, Udinese have one goal in four games, and neither side has a striker in form. I can see this being decided by a single goal or a set piece.
Udinese’s defence is the obvious worry. They allow more than two expected goals a game, and Parma conceded eight times in Gilardino’s first three matches, so one early goal could change the picture quickly. Even so, I trust Parma’s lack of attacking threat more than Udinese’s leaky back line, and I am backing Under 2.5 Goals at 1.74 with Winz, with a 1-1 draw my score prediction.