Derby on Saturday, Feyenoord next week – how much will Chivu hold back in Venice?
Inter’s next eight days decide a lot: Milan on Saturday, Feyenoord away in the Champions League next week and Como after that. Cristian Chivu is already without Lautaro Martínez, and the Gazzetta reports that Marcus Thuram, who has started every game since the international break, will be rested, while Francesco Pio Esposito is a doubt after a family bereavement. That gives bottom-placed Venezia a better chance of keeping this close than the table suggests. Davide Nicola’s side beat Napoli 1-0 in his first game in charge.
“Ci saranno delle rotazioni.” (“There will be some rotation.”) – Venezia coach Davide Nicola, who is managing his own heavy week
Predicted lineups: Venezia vs Inter
Inter’s injury list is long: Lautaro (hamstring, out until late November), Benjamin Pavard, John Stones, Curtis Jones and Luis Henrique. Thuram is expected on the bench, Nicolò Barella may be rested, Hakan Calhanoglu is likely to start among the substitutes with Piotr Zieliński directing play, and Ivan Provedel keeps his place in goal. Ange-Yoan Bonny is certain to start up front. Venezia are without Marin Šverko, Andrea Adorante, Bartol Franjić and probably Thierry Correia, while Gianluca Busio is fit again but likely to come off the bench.
Venezia Team News & Preview
Nicola arrived after Stroppa’s dismissal and immediately got a reaction: Akor Adams scored the only goal against Napoli and goalkeeper Filip Stanković made several important saves. Saturday’s 1-0 defeat in Genoa was a reminder of how fragile this side remains, and Venezia are still last with three points.
The underlying numbers are better than the table. Venezia create 1.61 expected goals per game but have scored only 0.75, the biggest gap between chances and goals in this fixture. They defend less well, conceding 2.09 expected goals, yet they have kept more of the ball than most relegation candidates. Antoine Hainaut, a wing-back with two goals, is their best-rated player.
What works for or against Venezia
- Beat Napoli 1-0 in Nicola's first game.
- 1.61 expected goals per game, far more than their 0.75 goals.
- Bottom of Serie A with seven defeats in eight games.
- 2.09 expected goals conceded per game.
Inter Team News & Preview
Thuram is the player to watch, precisely because he may not be on the pitch. He has five league goals and has been the only Inter player to start all five games since the international break, and with Lautaro injured his workload has been heavy. The Gazzetta describes him as exhausted. If Esposito is not fit either, Inter could line up with Bonny and a stand-in, with Calhanoglu and possibly Barella also starting on the bench.
Inter are still a very good side. They have won seven of eight league games, average 2.90 expected goals and came from behind to win 2-1 in Florence on Saturday through Thuram and a Zieliński penalty. But Lazio’s 6-2 win on Tuesday put them three points behind, and the derby on Saturday matters more to Chivu than the size of the win in Venice.
What works for or against Inter
- Seven wins and a draw from eight Serie A games.
- 2.90 expected goals per game, the best attack in this fixture by far.
- Thuram set to be rested, Lautaro and four others out.
- Milan derby on Saturday and Feyenoord away next week.
Venezia vs Inter Odds
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Venezia Form, Stats & Data
Venezia’s gap between 1.61 expected goals and 0.75 real goals is not something I would call bad luck without looking closer; much of it is poor finishing, which is why Adams and Yeboah are not trusted strikers yet. The relevance here is simpler: Venezia get into scoring positions, and one goal for them makes the handicap much safer.
Inter Form, Stats & Data
Inter’s top scorer and best-rated player is the same man, and he is the one Chivu plans to rest. Inter still have depth, and Bonny and Esposito have shared the load since Lautaro’s injury, but the 2.90 xG per game was built mostly with Thuram and Lautaro on the pitch.
Venezia vs Inter: Prediction & Betting Tip
I expect Inter to win, but I do not expect a rout. The handicap of +1.75 means Venezia win this bet if Inter win by one goal or fail to win, half of the stake wins if Inter win by exactly two, and only a three-goal Inter win beats it. With Thuram rested, Lautaro out and the derby three days away, I think Chivu will be happy to protect a lead rather than chase a big margin, and Nicola’s Venezia have already shown they can frustrate a Champions League side.
Why might I be wrong? Inter’s second string is still stronger than most Serie A starting elevens, and Venezia have conceded more than two goals a game. An early goal could turn this into the kind of open game in which Inter score three or four. I accept that risk at 3/10 and back Venezia +1.75 (Asian Handicap) at 1.70 with Winz. My score prediction is Inter to win 2-1.