“We have to step it up massively” – Hoeneß takes a wobbling Stuttgart to Paderborn
Sebastian Hoeneß did not hide behind the Champions League after Friday’s 3-2 home defeat by Gladbach. Stuttgart have five league defeats from seven, sit 15th, and the manager admitted standards had slipped because things had seemed too easy. Now comes a floodlit cup tie at newly promoted Paderborn, who are two points better off in the table and beat Hamburg on Saturday, with Stuttgart due in Leverkusen at the weekend.
“Wir müssen draufpacken, gewaltig draufpacken, wenn wir Spiele gewinnen wollen.” (“We have to step it up, step it up massively, if we want to win games.”) – Stuttgart manager Sebastian Hoeneß
Predicted lineups: Paderborn vs Stuttgart
Fabian Bredlow replaces Dennis Seimen in goal, as planned after Stuttgart’s first run of midweek games. Josha Vagnoman, Nikolas Nartey, Tiago Tomás and Dan-Axel Zagadou are all out with thigh or muscle problems, and Justin Diehl is not ready, so the back four and the midfield both have a reshuffled look. Ralf Kettemann refused to discuss his team, but Paderborn are without Timur Gayret, Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant, Marcel Hoffmeier, Sebastian Klaas and Oliver Batista Meier, all of whom were already missing on Saturday.
Paderborn Team News & Preview
Saturday’s win over Hamburg was not pretty. Paderborn did not have a shot on target before the break and needed an 88th-minute goal from substitute Rayan Philippe, but it was a clean sheet for a newly promoted side that defends with a back three and leaves little space behind it. Goalkeeper Nahuel Noll is their highest-rated player on FotMob, which tells you where most of their work gets done.
The history is against them. Paderborn have lost all three previous cup meetings with Stuttgart and lost 2-0 at home to them in the league only 18 days ago. That game came when Stuttgart were still finding their rhythm, though, and much has changed in the visitors‘ dressing room since.
What works for or against Paderborn
- Beat Hamburg 1-0 on Saturday without conceding.
- Only six league goals in seven games.
- Lost 2-0 at home to Stuttgart in the league on 10 October.
Stuttgart Team News & Preview
Hoeneß’s own explanation was blunt: Stuttgart were not greedy or determined enough against Gladbach, and a sense that results would come easily had crept in. The numbers back up his worry. Ermedin Demirović scored twice on Friday, but the defence has allowed 17.5 expected goals in seven Bundesliga games, and the injuries to Vagnoman and Zagadou leave Finn Jeltsch and Jeff Chabot with little cover.
This is also the third game of another heavy week. Stuttgart drew 1-1 with Atlético Madrid in the Champions League before the Gladbach defeat, and Leverkusen away follows on Saturday, so the rotation in goal may not be the only change. Maximilian Mittelstädt, their best-rated player, and Chris Führich carry most of the creativity.
What works for or against Stuttgart
- Won 2-0 in Paderborn in the league 18 days ago.
- Five defeats in seven Bundesliga games.
- 2.50 expected goals conceded per league game.
- Four defenders and midfielders out, plus a rested first-choice goalkeeper.
Paderborn vs Stuttgart Odds
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Paderborn Form, Stats & Data
Paderborn concede 1.29 goals per game against 1.70 expected, and that gap belongs largely to Noll. Going forward they are limited, with 3.4 shots on target per game. That makes the draw a realistic part of this bet: Paderborn do not need to outscore Stuttgart, only to keep the game close for 90 minutes.
Stuttgart Form, Stats & Data
Stuttgart create almost two expected goals per game but score 1.43, and they concede more chances than any side in this tie by a wide margin. The FotMob team rating of 6.84 is virtually identical to Paderborn’s 6.85, which says more about Stuttgart’s form than about any difference in squad quality.
Paderborn vs Stuttgart: Prediction & Betting Tip
On paper Stuttgart have the better players, and they won in Paderborn less than three weeks ago. But a great deal has changed since then. They have lost their last two league games, their defence is giving up chances at an alarming rate, four squad players are injured and Hoeneß is already rotating with Leverkusen on Saturday. Paderborn defend deep, have a goalkeeper in form and come off a win.
The obvious danger is quality: Demirović, Führich and Mittelstädt can decide a game in a few minutes, and Paderborn’s attack offers little threat of its own. That is why I am taking the safer route of Double Chance 1X at 2.40 with Winz rather than a home win, and keeping it to a small 2/10 stake. I expect a 1-1 after 90 minutes.