Five games, 23 goals: Sparta’s open matches meet Fortuna’s leaky numbers
Nothing about Sparta Rotterdam’s recent football has been quiet. Their last five Eredivisie games produced 23 goals, including a 3-3 at Go Ahead Eagles and Sunday’s 2-1 defeat by Ajax, after which Ajax’s own coach said Sparta deserved more. Fortuna Sittard arrive sixth in the table, but their position rests on finishing and goalkeeping rather than chance creation, and Danny Buijs has to think about a trip to leaders Feyenoord on Saturday. There is no VAR in this first round of the KNVB Beker.
Fortuna Sittard have conceded 22.6 expected goals in ten Eredivisie games – only 17 real goals have gone in.
Predicted lineups: Sparta vs Fortuna
Rogier Meijer has said nothing about rotation, so I expect a side close to the one that pushed Ajax, with Shunsuke Mito and Max de Ligt still injured and Mitchell van Bergen back among the substitutes. Sparta pick their shape according to the opponent and used a back five against Ajax; a back four is more likely here. Fortuna are thinner. According to the supporters‘ site Fortuna Online, Dahlhaus, Márquez, Oukili and Sinkgraven lack match rhythm, Michut and Ihattaren are not fully fit, and top scorer Anthony Descotte missed Sunday’s game through illness, so his start is not guaranteed.
Sparta Team News & Preview
Milan Zonneveld is the reason Sparta are dangerous even in a poor season. He has six league goals and the highest FotMob rating in the squad, and the PSV loanee Isaac Babadi has grown into the side behind him. Sparta’s expected goals per game, 1.96, are respectable for a team sitting 14th.
The problem is at the other end. Sparta have conceded 24 goals in ten games, including 4-1 at PSV and 0-4 at home to Heerenveen, and Jens Toornstra’s goal against Ajax in his 500th Eredivisie game could not stop another defeat. They score and concede in almost every match, and that is the profile this bet relies on.
What works for or against Sparta
- Zonneveld has six league goals.
- 1.96 expected goals per game in the Eredivisie.
- 24 goals conceded in ten league games.
- Sparta have won five of the last ten meetings and lost only one.
Fortuna Sittard Team News & Preview
Rodrigo Guth’s header in the 91st minute beat Excelsior on Sunday and ended Fortuna’s winless run since mid-September. It also let Buijs equal Bert van Marwijk’s club record of 36 Eredivisie wins. But the performance was thin: Fortuna played without a recognised centre-forward and created 0.7 expected goals.
That is typical. Fortuna average 0.88 expected goals and only 36% of the ball, yet they have scored 17 league goals, almost twice what their chances suggest. At the back they allow 2.26 expected goals per game, and goalkeeper Mattijs Branderhorst, their highest-rated player, has kept the real total down. With Feyenoord on Saturday, Buijs is likely to rest some of his regulars.
What works for or against Fortuna
- Sixth in the Eredivisie with five wins from ten.
- 2.26 expected goals conceded per game.
- Several players short of fitness and Feyenoord away on Saturday.
- Branderhorst has been the outstanding performer in the squad.
Sparta vs Fortuna Odds
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Sparta vs. Sittard Stats Comparison
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Sparta vs. Sittard Form Guide
Sparta Form, Stats & Data
Sparta’s matches average 3.84 expected goals between the two sides, against 3.14 in Fortuna’s games. They concede more real goals than expected and score slightly fewer, so their 14th place is no accident, but neither number points to a low-scoring evening.
Sittard Form, Stats & Data
No team in this preview lives further from its underlying numbers than Fortuna. They score almost twice their expected goals and concede well under theirs, and a goalkeeper rated 7.46 explains part of that. A rotated side away from home is exactly the setting in which those numbers tend to catch up with a team.
Sparta vs Fortuna: Prediction & Betting Tip
Sparta’s games are open almost by default, and Fortuna allow more than two expected goals a game. Add a rotated Fortuna team with Feyenoord on their minds, a home side that will want to attack after a narrow defeat by Ajax, and no VAR to slow the game down, and I expect goals.
Fortuna’s recent results are the main argument against it: three of their last five league games had two goals or fewer, and Buijs’s side are good at slowing games down without the ball. Even so, I am backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.62 with Winz and see Sparta winning 2-1.