No Kompany, a rotated side and Dortmund on Saturday: can Magdeburg find a way through?
Bayern will win this tie in almost every scenario, so the more interesting question is whether Magdeburg can score. Vincent Kompany is still in hospital after collapsing in training last Friday, Aaron Danks is in charge again, and the local press expects wholesale changes with Borussia Dortmund at the Allianz Arena on Saturday. Bayern have conceded in each of their last five games. Magdeburg, fifth in the 2. Bundesliga, scored six against Karlsruhe on Saturday and bring 7,500 supporters, along with memories of knocking Bayern out on penalties in 2000.
“Er ist in guter Stimmung. Es sieht so aus, dass es jeden Tag besser wird.” (“He is in good spirits. It looks as if he is getting better every day.”) – Bayern assistant Aaron Danks on Vincent Kompany
Predicted lineups: Bayern vs Magdeburg
Jonas Urbig starts in goal with Manuel Neuer injured, and Jamal Musiala and Luis Díaz are also out. Joshua Kimmich is absent following a bereavement in his family, while Kim Min-jae and Aleksandar Pavlović are close but uncertain. Harry Kane is available, but the expected line-up includes Hiroki Ito, Tom Bischof, Lennart Karl and Ibrahim Saibari rather than a full-strength XI. Magdeburg are without Lubambo Musonda (Achilles), and Moritz-Broni Kwarteng is very unlikely to play.
Bayern Team News & Preview
The goals-against column is the surprising part of Bayern’s recent run. They drew 2-2 in Augsburg, 3-3 at Viking in the Champions League and 2-2 with Arsenal, and even the 6-1 against Leipzig and Sunday’s 3-1 in Freiburg saw them concede. Over seven Bundesliga games the defence has been excellent overall, with six goals against, but the last two weeks have been looser.
With Dortmund next, the line-up will be very different from the one that won in Freiburg. Michael Olise, Bayern’s best-rated player, has six league goals, and Kane is available, but Danks has to balance this tie against the biggest league game of the autumn.
What works for or against Bayern
- 3.40 expected goals per Bundesliga game and 25 goals in seven matches.
- Have conceded in each of their last five games.
- Kompany absent, Neuer, Musiala and Díaz injured.
- Heavy rotation expected before Dortmund on Saturday.
Magdeburg Team News & Preview
Petrik Sander asked his players to believe in what makes them strong, and in the 2. Bundesliga that has been their attack. Magdeburg have 20 goals in nine league games, scored three against both Kaiserslautern and Hannover, and created 2.87 expected goals while beating Karlsruhe 6-1 on Saturday. Iyoha has six goals and Żukowski five, two of them penalties against Karlsruhe.
Barış Atik, their best-rated player, gives them a creative outlet on the left. Defensively they are vulnerable, and against Bayern’s attacking quality that will show. But this bet does not need Magdeburg to keep the score down, only to score once.
What works for or against Magdeburg
- 20 goals in nine 2. Bundesliga games.
- Scored in four of their last five league games.
- Facing a Bayern side with 3.40 expected goals per game.
- Atik and Iyoha are both in good form.
Bayern vs Magdeburg Odds
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Bayern Munich vs. Magdeburg Form Guide
Bayern Munich Form, Stats & Data
Bayern’s league numbers are overwhelming, with 3.40 expected goals and 10.1 shots on target per game. The xGA of 0.93 is low too, but it belongs to their first-choice defence; Upamecano, Kim and Kimmich are unlikely to start, and the Champions League games against Viking and Arsenal show how the back line has looked under pressure.
Magdeburg Form, Stats & Data
Magdeburg score 2.22 goals per game from 1.37 expected, so their finishing has been well above average in the second tier. That will not hold against Bayern, but six shots on target per game shows they get forward in numbers, and a rotated Bayern defence is the best chance they will get.
Bayern vs Magdeburg: Prediction & Betting Tip
Bayern should win comfortably, so I am looking at Magdeburg’s goal rather than the result. A rotated Bayern back line, a coaching staff without its head coach and a Dortmund game three days away create room for a second-tier side that has scored freely all season. Bayern have let in at least one goal in five straight games, including against Viking and Augsburg.
The obvious counterpoint is that Bayern could have this won by half-time and simply keep the ball, as they often do in early cup rounds. That is why this is a small 2/10 bet. I am backing Both Teams to Score – Yes at 2.02 with Winz and see Bayern winning 4-1.