Molde’s goal glut meets the meanest defence in the OBOS-ligaen
Strømsgodset come to Molde with promotion on their minds. Magne Hoseth’s side have conceded 34 goals in 28 OBOS-ligaen games, fewer than anyone else in the division, and scored 76 at the other end. Sunday’s 1-0 defeat at Strømmen cost them top spot, but they are still second, one point ahead of Kongsvinger with two games to go. Molde have just put five past Fredrikstad and six past Start in back-to-back home league games, and Sindre Tjelmeland’s side are third in the Eliteserien. Molde are clear favourites to reach the last 16 in March. The bigger question for me is whether they can keep Godset out.
Predicted lineups: Molde vs Strømsgodset
No official line-ups had been released when this preview went live, so both XIs below are Sunday’s starting sides. Molde are without Eirik Hestad, their highest-rated player this season on FotMob, as well as Halldor Stenevik and Sivert Hansen. Mads Kikkenborg, Vebjørn Hoff and Seydina Diop are out for the season. Strømsgodset have no injuries listed. Hoseth’s main decision is how much to rotate with Moss visiting on Sunday.
Molde Team News & Preview
Molde’s attack is why they are such short favourites. Kristian Lonebu scored four times against Fredrikstad on Sunday and has 12 league goals. Tjelmeland’s side average 2.38 goals and 2.25 expected goals per game, both third-best in the Eliteserien, and they have scored 11 in their last two league games.
The defence is a different story. Molde have conceded 36 goals in 24 league games and have kept just three clean sheets in 13 home matches. They have also let in at least one goal in each of their last four league games, a run that includes a 2-1 home defeat by Aalesund. Losing Hestad does not help either, because nobody in the squad has a higher FotMob rating this season.
What works for or against Molde
- 2.38 goals per league game, and 11 in the last two league games.
- Three home clean sheets in 13 league games.
- Conceded in each of the last four league games.
- Hestad, Stenevik and Hansen are out, plus three long-term absentees.
Strømsgodset Team News & Preview
Strømsgodset have been the most balanced side in the second tier. Their 76 goals are the third-highest total in the OBOS-ligaen, their 34 conceded the lowest, and they have scored in 26 of 28 league games, including 13 of 14 on the road. Sebastian Pingel leads the scoring with 19 league goals and Elias Hoff Melkersen has 15.
Before Sunday they had scored 15 times in three league games, including a 5-0 home win over Haugesund, who now top the table. The blank at Strømmen was only the second time all season that Godset failed to score in the league. The concern is the run-in: two wins against Moss and Stabæk would secure automatic promotion, and Hoseth may decide that matters more than a cup trip to Molde.
What works for or against Strømsgodset
- Scored in 26 of 28 league games, 13 of 14 away from home.
- Pingel has 19 league goals, Melkersen 15.
- The promotion run-in could mean rotation.
- Failed to score at Strømmen on Sunday.
Molde vs Strømsgodset Odds
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Molde vs. Stromsgodset Form Guide
Molde Form, Stats & Data
Molde concede 1.50 goals per game against 1.44 expected, so the leaky home record is not down to bad luck. They dominate the ball and create plenty, but opponents still get enough chances to score against them, and without Hestad they lose their most influential player this season.
Stromsgodset Form, Stats & Data
Godset’s numbers come from the OBOS-ligaen, and second place there is not the same as third in the Eliteserien, so they need scaling down for this tie. Even so, a side that has failed to score in only two of 28 league games knows how to find a goal, and Molde have conceded in each of their last four league outings.
Molde vs Strømsgodset: Prediction & Betting Tip
Molde should win this, and I have no interest in backing against them. My bet is about the other end of the pitch. Godset have scored in all but two of their league games, Molde have kept only three home clean sheets all season, and Tjelmeland is without Hestad.
The strongest argument against the bet is rotation. With automatic promotion still to be sealed, Hoseth could rest Pingel or Melkersen, and the gap between the two divisions is real. If Godset’s second string turn up and sit deep, Molde could win 2-0 or 3-0 without much fuss. I still back Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.61 with Winz with a 3/10 stake, and I expect Molde to win 3-1. The market is for regular time only, so goals in any extra time do not count.