Four goals in seven games – and Schalke arrive without Gosens, El-Faouzi and Karaman
Schalke have one of the Bundesliga’s meaner defences and one of its bluntest attacks. Miron Muslic’s side have kept things tight all autumn, but four league goals in seven games tells you where the problem lies, and Saturday’s 0-0 in Cologne cost them two more starters after Robin Gosens and Soufiane El-Faouzi clashed heads. Dynamo Dresden sit 15th in the 2. Bundesliga after a 3-0 defeat in Kiel, yet Thomas Stamm’s side beat Schalke in this competition in 2014 and have home advantage at the Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
“Es wird darum gehen, stabil zu sein, und gute Umschaltmomente zu haben.” (“It will be about being stable and having good moments in transition.”) – Dynamo coach Thomas Stamm
Predicted lineups: Dresden vs Schalke
Stamm reported no new injuries after the Kiel defeat, so Nicolai Rapp stays in central defence for the concussed Thomas Leon Keller. Schalke’s list is much longer. Gosens needed stitches to two cuts on his forehead, El-Faouzi broke his nose in the same collision, and Karaman, Moussa Sylla, Ron Schallenberg and Maximilian Wöber are all missing. Dejan Ljubičić is a possible returner, but Muslic was waiting on the final training session before deciding, so I have him on the bench.
Dresden Team News & Preview
The scoreline in Kiel was harsher than the performance. Dresden created 2.33 expected goals, hit the post through Vincent Vermeij early on and saw Niklas Hauptmann’s penalty saved, but they still lost 3-0 and have now won only one of their last seven competitive games. That win was a 2-0 against Magdeburg, which shows what this side can do when the game stays compact.
The defensive record is the concern for Stamm: 18 goals conceded in nine league games, with Keller and Kenneth Schmidt both missing from the back four. His message for this tie was clear, though. He expects Schalke to have more of the ball and wants his team to stay organised and hurt them in transition, not to chase an open game.
What works for or against Dresden
- Dresden created 2.33 expected goals in Kiel despite losing 3-0.
- 18 goals conceded in nine 2. Bundesliga games.
- One win from the last seven competitive matches.
- Home crowd and a 2014 cup win over Schalke on this ground.
Schalke Team News & Preview
Five games without a win, two goals in that run and an injury list that keeps growing. Gosens and El-Faouzi went off together in the 38th minute in Cologne, joining Karaman, Sylla and Schallenberg on the sidelines, which strips Muslic of his captain, his most experienced wing-back and two central midfielders. He has spoken only of limited rotation, but with this many absences the selection largely picks itself.
Schalke’s league games tell the same story every week: 0-0 against Bayern and Elversberg, 0-0 in Cologne, 0-1 against Mainz. They average under 40% possession and 3.1 shots on target, and only goalkeeper Loris Karius has a higher FotMob rating than Hasan Kuruçay in central defence. The first-round tie at Hallescher FC finished 5-2, but it was 2-2 after 90 minutes and the extra goals came in extra time against a fourth-tier side.
What works for or against Schalke
- Only seven goals conceded in seven Bundesliga games.
- Four league goals all season and none in the last two games.
- Gosens, El-Faouzi, Karaman, Sylla and Schallenberg are all out.
- Schalke have gone out in the second round in each of the last five seasons.
Dresden vs Schalke Odds
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Dresden vs. Schalke Form Guide
Dresden Form, Stats & Data
The gap between 1.36 expected goals and 1.22 actual goals is small, so Dresden’s attack is roughly what it looks like: busy, but not ruthless, with no player above two league goals. The 1.89 xGA in the 2. Bundesliga is the bigger warning, although it comes against second-tier attacks that create far more than Schalke’s has managed this season. These figures are from the 2. Bundesliga, Schalke’s from the Bundesliga.
Schalke Form, Stats & Data
No Schalke player has more than one league goal, and two of the three scorers – Karaman and Wöber – are injured. A goals-per-game figure of 0.57 is the key number for this bet. The defensive side is less convincing than it looks: Schalke allow 1.84 xG per game and Karius, their best-rated player, has kept the goals-against column respectable.
Dresden vs Schalke: Prediction & Betting Tip
This is a Schalke side that struggles to create, now without their captain and two more regulars, away to an opponent whose coach has openly planned a cautious game. Dresden can score, as the chances in Kiel showed, but their own attack has no reliable finisher, and Schalke have conceded more than once in a Bundesliga game only twice this season.
What could go wrong? Dresden’s defence has leaked two goals a game in the second tier, and if Schalke score early the hosts will have to open up. I still think a tight, nervy cup tie is far more likely, and I am backing Under 2.5 Goals at 2.12 with Winz. I have it level at 1-1 after 90 minutes. The stake is 5/10 because the evidence comes from a full run of games, not one or two blanks.