Two leaking defences, and only one side with something to play for
Querétaro were in the top four a month ago. Four straight defeats later – 5-0 at Santos, 2-1 at San Luis, 3-1 at home to Cruz Azul and 3-1 at Juárez – they are 12th with 20 points and need most of the nine still available from three home games. Puebla are 14th, without a win since 11 September and as good as out of the race; Gerardo Espinoza has already said publicly that his side failed this season. Neither defence is holding up: Querétaro have conceded 13 in four, Puebla ten in three.
„We clearly know what’s at stake and we have to be aware of it.“ – Esteban González before the Puebla game (via AlertaQro, translated from Spanish)
Predicted lineups: Querétaro vs Puebla
Querétaro’s line-up is based on the probable XIs published before the game. Santiago Homenchenko, their highest-rated player, fractured his hand in the defeat at Santos, but González said on Friday that he has been training normally for a couple of days and is an option. Puebla are without Heriberto Jurado, who has had surgery on a stress fracture in his tibia and faces around four months out. Eduardo Armenta is returning from his own recovery, so his place is not certain. Puebla switched to a back five against Pumas, and the line-up below reflects that.
Querétaro Team News & Preview
Querétaro have 20 points from 14 games and a game in hand against Monterrey, also at home, on 14 November. All three of their remaining fixtures are at the Corregidora, which is why González has talked about going all out in front of their own fans. The problem is that their home record is only two wins, a draw and three defeats, with nine goals conceded in six games.
The defensive collapse is the story of the last month. González admitted that his side have lost the solidity they had earlier in the season, and at Juárez the opener came from an Enzo Giménez error. In attack they still create chances – 1.64 expected goals per game – and Alí Ávila, with six goals, scored again at Juárez.
What works for or against Querétaro
- 1.64 expected goals per game, the better attack here.
- Homenchenko could return.
- 13 goals conceded in four straight defeats.
- Three home defeats this season.
Puebla Team News & Preview
Puebla have 16 points and are winless in their last seven league games. The last three have been open: a 4-1 home defeat to Monterrey, a 4-3 loss at Atlas and a 2-1 defeat to Pumas, when Omar Moreno equalised before Pumas scored the winner from a corner. Away from home they have three wins, a draw and four defeats, scoring nine and conceding 11.
Espinoza’s mood says a lot about where Puebla are. After the Pumas game he said he was sad about the situation, and this week he told ClaroSports that if the goal was simply to qualify, his side had failed. Their attack is the weakest part of the team, at 0.93 expected goals per game, but they have still scored five in their last three.
What works for or against Puebla
- Five goals scored in their last three games.
- Three away wins this season.
- Ten goals conceded in their last three games.
- No league win since 11 September.
Querétaro vs Puebla Odds
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Querétaro vs. Puebla Stats Comparison
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Querétaro vs. Puebla Form Guide
Querétaro Form, Stats & Data
Querétaro’s expected goals are almost level at both ends, which explains why their games are rarely tight. They have scored fewer than their chances suggest, so there is some room for their attack to improve against a weak defence.
Puebla Form, Stats & Data
Puebla create little but concede plenty, and they have scored more than their chances deserve. With qualification gone, there is little reason to expect them to tighten up now.
Querétaro vs Puebla: Prediction & Betting Tip
I would not want to back Querétaro to win on a run of four defeats, but I am happy to bet on goals. Both defences are in poor shape, Querétaro have to attack at home, and Puebla, with nothing left to play for, have conceded at least two in each of their last three games. Querétaro’s last four league games and Puebla’s last three have all produced three goals or more, and Querétaro have won the last three meetings.
The strongest argument against is Puebla’s switch to a back five and their weak attack. If Espinoza sets up to frustrate a nervous home side, this could be a scrappy 1-0. The sample of recent high-scoring games is also small. That is why the stake is at the minimum. Over 2.5 Goals at 1.67 with Winz is my bet at 1/10, and I expect a 2-1 home win.