Six conceded against Real Sociedad and Plzeň next week – an awkward time for Lillestrøm’s cup tie
Lillestrøm were taken apart 6-0 by Real Sociedad in the Europa League last Thursday and were three goals down at half-time. They recovered to beat Brann 3-2 on Sunday, but the schedule does not get any lighter: Start away in the league this Sunday, then Viktoria Plzeň at Åråsen next Thursday. Sogndal have been run by interim manager Eirik Bakke since the summer. They arrive on back-to-back league wins, but sit 12th in the OBOS-ligaen, one point above the relegation play-off place with two games left. Winz have Lillestrøm at 1.06 to win in 90 minutes, so the more interesting question for me is whether Sogndal can score.
Predicted lineups: Lillestrøm vs Sogndal
No line-ups had been announced at the time of writing, and Hans Erik Ødegaard has not said publicly how much he plans to rotate. The XIs below are both teams‘ starting sides from Sunday. Espen Garnås and Camil Jebara are still listed as injured for Lillestrøm. Sogndal have no new injuries listed, and Bakke used a 3-4-3 in the 3-1 win over Kongsvinger.
Lillestrøm Team News & Preview
Lillestrøm are sixth in the Eliteserien, but their numbers look more like those of a mid-table side. They have scored 35 and conceded 33 in 24 games, and their expected goals against of 1.71 per game is higher than the 1.63 they create. At Åråsen they have kept only two clean sheets in 12 league matches.
Vá leads the scoring with eight league goals and is also their highest-rated player. Fredrik Gulbrandsen has seven, and Thomas Lehne Olsen, who missed a penalty against Real Sociedad, has six. Ødegaard’s squad is stretched by European football, and this tie sits in the middle of five games in 15 days.
What works for or against Lillestrøm
- Vá (8), Gulbrandsen (7) and Lehne Olsen (6) share the goals.
- Two home clean sheets in 12 league games.
- Conceded six against Real Sociedad last Thursday.
- Start away on Sunday, Viktoria Plzeň at home next Thursday.
Sogndal Team News & Preview
Sogndal’s season has been turbulent. Luis Pimenta was put on leave in June and sacked in September, the whole board resigned a day later, and Bakke has been in charge throughout. On the pitch they are a side that scores and concedes in equal measure: 47 goals for and 61 against in 28 league games. Tuomas Pippola and Sebastian Pedersen have eight league goals each.
The last fortnight has been their best spell of the autumn, with a 2-1 win over Raufoss and a 3-1 win over third-placed Kongsvinger. The catch is the table. Sogndal are one point above Moss in the relegation play-off spot with two games left, and Bakke may decide that his strongest XI belongs in the league.
What works for or against Sogndal
- 47 league goals, 1.68 per game.
- Five goals in their last two league games, including 3-1 against Kongsvinger.
- The relegation fight with two games left may take priority.
- A big gap in quality against a European side.
Lillestrøm vs Sogndal Odds
Match Result
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Lillestrom vs. Sogndal Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Lillestrom vs. Sogndal Form Guide
Lillestrom Form, Stats & Data
This is the key box for the bet. Lillestrøm allow more expected goals than they create, and 1.71 xGA per game against Eliteserien opposition suggests a second-tier attack will get chances too, especially if Ødegaard rests players before Plzeň.
Sogndal Form, Stats & Data
The defensive numbers explain why nobody expects Sogndal to win. But a team fighting relegation that still scores 1.68 goals per game is not one that sits back and waits, and that matters for a bet on them finding the net once.
Lillestrøm vs Sogndal: Prediction & Betting Tip
Lillestrøm should go through, and I am not backing against them. But they keep conceding at home, they are coming off a 6-0 defeat and they face a heavy schedule, while Sogndal have scored five goals in their last two league games and spread their goals across the front line.
The strongest argument against the bet is the gap between the divisions, combined with Sogndal’s own priorities. With two league games left to stay up, Bakke may hold back his best players, and a weakened Sogndal side could spend 90 minutes defending. I still like Sogndal Over 0.5 Team Goals at 2.01 with Winz with a 2/10 stake, and I expect a 3-1 win for Lillestrøm. The market is for regular time only.