Six straight defeats for Barnsley, one league defeat all season for Oxford
Pre-match update (15:03 CET): No surprises in the team news. The latest previews have Ben Hamed Touré missing for personal reasons and Daniel Johnson not yet ready for his debut, while Oxford are still without McDonnell and Roosken. The official line-ups had not been published at the time of writing, so the teams below remain our predicted XIs. My bet stays as it is: Oxford -0.25 at 2.00 with Winz, 3/10. The odds quoted are from the time of publication on 30 October; prices may have moved since.
The table tells the story. Barnsley are 23rd in League One with eight points from 11 games and have lost six in a row in all competitions, the last three in the league all by 2-1. Oxford are third on 22 points, unbeaten in the league since early September, and beat Stockport 1-0 on Tuesday to stay in touch with the top two. Daniel Stendel’s side have Luca Connell back from a three-match ban, but the pressure on the German is growing.
„It’s a little bit difficult to say if he’s ready for Saturday.“ – Barnsley head coach Daniel Stendel on forward Ben Hamed Touré, who has only just returned to training after compassionate leave
Predicted lineups: Barnsley vs Oxford
Connell’s return is a real boost for Barnsley in midfield. Touré is unlikely to start, Fabio Jalo is out with a knee injury, Isaac Smith is a doubt, and new signing Daniel Johnson is managing niggles. Oxford have Jamie McDonnell out until the new year with a hamstring injury, Ruben Roosken is likely to miss out with a back problem and Jeon Jin-woo is a doubt, but Aaron Ramsey can otherwise name the side that has kept clean sheets in the last two league games.
Barnsley Team News & Preview
Barnsley’s problem is at the back. They have conceded 21 goals in 11 league games, almost two a game, and only Bromley have conceded more in League One. Their home form offers little comfort: one win in five at Oakwell, with defeats to Bromley, Stevenage (5-1) and Cambridge, and a draw with Leicester.
There is some fight in the side. They have scored in most of their games, Cameron McGeehan leads the way with three goals, and the recent defeats at Reading and Luton were both by a single goal. But a run of 2-1 defeats is still a run of defeats, and confidence is low.
What works for or against Barnsley
- Six defeats in a row in all competitions.
- 21 goals conceded in 11 league games.
- One home league win in five.
- Connell back from suspension.
Oxford Team News & Preview
Oxford have been one of the stories of the season under Aaron Ramsey. Six wins, four draws and one defeat from 11 league games, 19 goals scored and ten conceded, and a strong record on the road: wins at Stevenage, Notts County and Leicester (4-0), a draw at Mansfield, and the only defeat at leaders Huddersfield.
Mark Harris has five league goals and scored the winner against Stockport on Tuesday, while Siriki Dembélé is their best-rated player. The one concern is the schedule: this is their third game in eight days, while Barnsley have had a full week to prepare.
What works for or against Oxford
- One league defeat all season.
- Three wins in five away league games.
- Clean sheets in the last two league games.
- Third game in eight days.
Barnsley vs Oxford Odds
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Barnsley vs. Oxford Utd Stats Comparison
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Barnsley vs. Oxford Utd Form Guide
Barnsley Form, Stats & Data
Barnsley have conceded a few more than their chances against suggest, so there is some bad luck in that defensive record. Even so, an xG difference of minus three tells you this is a side in the bottom half on merit.
Oxford Utd Form, Stats & Data
Oxford’s results are better than their expected-goals numbers. That is the main caution in this bet, but their finishing and goalkeeping have held up over 11 games.
Barnsley vs Oxford: Prediction & Betting Tip
The case against Oxford is in the underlying numbers. They have allowed more expected goals than they have created, which suggests their results have been kinder than their performances, and they come into this on short rest. Barnsley, with Connell back and a week to prepare, have lost their last three league games by only one goal.
I still think the gap in form and confidence is too wide. Oxford have lost once in 11, travel well and have kept two straight clean sheets, while Barnsley have lost six in a row and leak almost two goals a game. With -0.25, an Oxford win pays out in full, a draw loses half the stake and refunds the other half, and a Barnsley win loses. Oxford United -0.25 (Asian Handicap) at 2.00 with Winz is my bet at 3/10. I expect a 2-1 win for Oxford.