Unbeaten at home, almost no goals: Port Vale’s strange season
Pre-match update (12:35 CET): Neither club had named its team at the time of this check, so the line-ups below are still predicted. The club previews fill in the gaps: Port Vale are without captain Ben Garrity and long-term absentees Ryan Croasdale, Liam Gordon, Ben Waine, Mo Faal and Matty Craig, while Connor Hall is back in contention after a knock. Rochdale have no fresh injury concerns, but none of their 13 injured players is back, striker Mani Dieseruvwe among them. None of this changes my view, so Under 2.5 Goals at 1.78 with Winz stays my bet at 2/10. The odds quoted are from Friday (30 October); prices may have moved since.
Port Vale’s league season has been a strange one. They are 23rd in League Two with 12 points from 11 games, yet they are unbeaten at Vale Park, with three wins and two draws and only one goal conceded. The reason they are near the bottom is the attack: six league goals all season, the fewest in the division, and not a single league game in which they have scored twice. Rochdale arrive 17th after a 5-0 home thrashing by Accrington last weekend, their heaviest league defeat of the season.
Predicted lineups: Port Vale vs Rochdale
Jon Brady rotated heavily for Tuesday’s 5-0 EFL Trophy win over Manchester City’s under-21s, so his first-choice players should be fresh. George Byers, Vale’s top scorer and best-rated player, sat that game out and should return. Brady is without captain Ben Garrity and five long-term absentees, while Connor Hall has trained again after a knock and is in contention. Tyreece Simpson has gone on loan to Southend. Rochdale report no fresh injury concerns, but a long injury list remains, and Ian Watson has had a full week to work on the defence after the Accrington defeat.
Port Vale Team News & Preview
The numbers at both ends are extreme. Vale have scored six and conceded 12 in 11 league games, and only one of those matches, a 3-1 defeat at Swindon, produced more than two goals. At home the pattern is even clearer: 1-1 with Tranmere, 0-0 with Crewe, then 1-0 wins over Exeter, Grimsby and Chesterfield. Five home games, five goals in total.
There is a case that their finishing will improve: their expected goals of 12.7 is more than double what they have scored. That is the main risk to this bet. But Brady’s side have stayed tight and organised, and their last league game, a 2-0 defeat at York, was another low-scoring afternoon.
What works for or against Port Vale
- Five home league games, five goals in total.
- One home goal conceded all season.
- Six league goals scored, the fewest in League Two.
- Expected goals of 12.7 suggest more goals could come.
Rochdale Team News & Preview
Rochdale’s games have been more open, which is why I am keeping the stake small. They have conceded 22 goals in 13 league games, and their away trips have included a 3-0 defeat at Newport and a 3-2 loss at Crewe. The Accrington defeat was a big blow to their defensive confidence.
In attack, though, they offer little. Rochdale average 2.8 shots on target per game, one of the lowest figures in League Two, and their expected goals of 10.7 from 13 games is very low. Dajaune Brown leads their scoring with four. Against a home side that has conceded once at Vale Park all season, it is hard to see them scoring more than once.
What works for or against Rochdale
- Low attacking output: 2.8 shots on target per game.
- 22 goals conceded in 13 league games.
- Lost 5-0 at home to Accrington last time out.
- A full week to prepare.
Port Vale vs Rochdale Odds
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Port Vale vs. Rochdale Stats Comparison
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Port Vale vs. Rochdale Form Guide
Port Vale Form, Stats & Data
Eighteen goals in 11 Port Vale league games, both ends combined. They are better than their position, but they have not yet found a way to turn chances into goals.
Rochdale Form, Stats & Data
Rochdale give up plenty of chances, which is the reason for caution. But their own attack creates very little: 10.7 expected goals in 13 games.
Port Vale vs Rochdale: Prediction & Betting Tip
The risk is that Vale’s finishing finally clicks against a defence that has just shipped five. Rochdale allow a lot of chances, and if Vale score early, the visitors will have to open up. Vale’s expected goals say they should have scored far more than six.
I am still happy to trust the pattern. Ten of Vale’s 11 league games have finished with two goals or fewer, their five home games have produced five goals in total, and Rochdale rarely trouble a goalkeeper. Under 2.5 Goals at 1.78 with Winz is my bet at 2/10, a smaller stake because of Rochdale’s leaky defence. I expect a 1-0 to Port Vale.