Juventus‘ iron defence takes on a Fiorentina side still searching for a home win
Fiorentina have not won at the Franchi in the league this season: two draws, three defeats and only five goals scored in five games. Paolo Vanoli’s side did win 4-2 at Sassuolo last Monday, but they go into Sunday’s game with problems at the back. Juventus arrive seventh with the meanest defence in the fixture by some distance, three days after a Europa League tie, and with a squad missing several key players. Everything about Juventus‘ season under Luciano Spalletti so far points to a controlled, low-scoring game.
Predicted lineups: Fiorentina vs Juventus
Vanoli is without Marin Pongračić and Fabiano Parisi, while Luca Ranieri and Atta are doubts, so Fiorentina are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 with Radu Drăgușin and Viery in the middle of defence. Juventus are missing Khéphren Thuram, Manuel Locatelli, Kenan Yıldız and Nico González, with Francisco Conceição a doubt. Randal Kolo Muani and Nick Woltemade are expected to start up front.
Fiorentina Team News & Preview
Fiorentina are 16th with eight points, and their games have been anything but dull: 15 scored and 23 conceded in ten league matches. The goals have mostly come away from home, though. At the Franchi they have managed only five in five games, and the defence that has conceded 2.3 per match is now without Pongračić and Parisi, with Ranieri a doubt.
The win at Sassuolo will have helped confidence, and Franco Mastantuono, their top scorer with four league goals and their highest-rated player, has been the bright spot. Their underlying numbers are better than their results, with 1.57 expected goals created and 1.48 allowed per game, but against a side as compact as Juventus they will find space much harder to come by.
What works for or against Fiorentina
- Won 4-2 at Sassuolo last Monday.
- Mastantuono has four league goals.
- No home league win this season (0-2-3).
- Pongračić and Parisi out, Ranieri a doubt.
Juventus Team News & Preview
Juventus‘ season has been built on not conceding. Ten goals against in ten league games is one thing, but the underlying figure is even more striking: 0.59 expected goals allowed per game. Juventus keep 58 per cent of the ball on average, which limits how often opponents can attack them.
Going forward they are much less convincing. Thirteen goals from 1.36 expected per game, and with Yıldız, Thuram and Locatelli all missing, a lot depends on Kolo Muani and Woltemade. Their five away games have finished 6-6 in total, and Thursday’s European tie means tired legs on Sunday evening.
What works for or against Juventus
- Only 0.59 expected goals allowed per game.
- Ten goals conceded in ten league games.
- Yıldız, Thuram and Locatelli all out.
- Played in the Europa League on Thursday.
Fiorentina vs Juventus Odds
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Fiorentina vs. Juventus Form Guide
Fiorentina Form, Stats & Data
Fiorentina have conceded 23 goals from under 15 expected against, so their defence has been unlucky as well as poor. At home, though, the attack has been the problem, with only one goal per game. Against the best defence they will face for some time, I do not see them creating much.
Juventus Form, Stats & Data
Juventus are a defensive side first and foremost. Their actual goals against are higher than their expected figure, and their attack has no player with more than two league goals. That profile, plus three days‘ rest and key attacking absentees, makes a big score from them unlikely.
Fiorentina vs Juventus: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am not confident about the winner, but I am confident about the shape of the game. Juventus allow almost nothing, Fiorentina have scored only five goals in five home league games, and the visitors‘ attack is short of goals and missing several key players. Add the Europa League game on Thursday, and I expect Juventus to keep things tight rather than chase the game.
The strongest argument against is Fiorentina’s defence. They concede 2.3 goals per game, their league games have averaged almost four goals, and they are missing two defenders. If Juventus score early, Fiorentina have to come out and the game could open up. Even so, I trust Juventus‘ defensive record more than Fiorentina’s leaks. Under 2.5 Goals at 1.98 with Winz is my bet at 3/10, and I expect a 0-1 away win.