Stuttgart lose their metronome before a trip to a perfect home side
Pre-match update (14:40 CET): Stuttgart have now confirmed that Angelo Stiller is out, and Leo Sauer is missing as well, so the main team-news argument behind this preview holds. There has been no fresh injury news from Leverkusen. The official line-ups are not out yet; the XIs below are still my predictions. Bayer Leverkusen to win at 1.81 with Winz stays my main bet at 4/10. I could not re-check the price this afternoon, so the odds quoted are from the morning of 30 October and may have moved since.
Sebastian Hoeneß went into this week hoping to steady a stuttering league campaign. He comes out of it without Angelo Stiller. The midfielder went off at half-time in Paderborn on Wednesday with an adductor problem, and Hoeneß has already said he does not expect him to be fit. The timing is awful: Stuttgart are 15th after five defeats in seven Bundesliga games, and they now visit a BayArena where Leverkusen have won all three league games this season.
“Ich gehe aktuell eher davon aus, dass er am Samstag nicht spielen kann.” (“At the moment I am assuming he won’t be able to play on Saturday.”) – Sebastian Hoeneß on Angelo Stiller
Predicted lineups: Leverkusen vs Stuttgart
Carles Martínez rotated for the cup win over Nürnberg, with Nathan Tella starting ahead of Patrik Schick, so the side that started at Hoffenheim is the better guide for Saturday. Martin Terrier, Guéla Doué, Eliesse Ben Seghir and Christian Kofane are all still unavailable. Stuttgart are without Stiller and right-back Josha Vagnoman, who faces several weeks out with a hamstring injury. Atakan Karazor, who partnered Stiller against Gladbach, is the most natural option to take on more of the build-up work.
Leverkusen Team News & Preview
At home, Leverkusen have been close to flawless: 4-0 against Union, 2-0 against Leipzig and 2-1 against Freiburg. The away form is the reason they are only fourth. Last Sunday they were taken apart 3-0 at Hoffenheim, and on Wednesday they were 2-0 down to second-tier Nürnberg after half an hour before Edmond Tapsoba scored twice and the cup tie finished 5-2.
That comeback says something about the attacking depth Martínez can call on, and Schick is the centre of it. He has six league goals and 15 in his last 15 Bundesliga matches. Leverkusen average 2.03 expected goals per game, and at home they have turned that into goals far more reliably than on their travels.
What works for or against Leverkusen
- Three home league wins out of three, with only one goal conceded.
- Patrik Schick has six league goals and 15 in his last 15 Bundesliga games.
- Beaten 3-0 at Hoffenheim in their last league game.
- Fell 2-0 behind against Nürnberg in the cup before recovering.
Stuttgart Team News & Preview
Stuttgart’s problem is not a lack of chances. They create 1.99 expected goals per game, almost the same as Leverkusen, but have scored only ten times in seven league games. At the other end they allow 2.50 expected goals per match, and they have lost at Bayern, Hoffenheim and Hamburg. The only away win came at Paderborn.
The last league outing was a 3-2 home defeat to Gladbach, who had lost their first six games, after Hoeneß made six changes. Wednesday’s cup win at Paderborn needed a 90th-minute Deniz Undav goal against ten men. Without Stiller, Stuttgart lose the player who sets their tempo from deep, and on Tuesday they have a Champions League trip to Istanbul to think about.
What works for or against Stuttgart
- Five defeats in seven league games, three of them away from home.
- Stiller and Vagnoman are both out.
- Galatasaray away in the Champions League follows on Tuesday.
- They held Atlético Madrid to a 1-1 draw in the Champions League on 20 October.
Leverkusen vs Stuttgart Odds
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Leverkusen Form, Stats & Data
The goals-against column looks worse than the home record because almost all of it was conceded away from the BayArena: eleven of the twelve goals came on the road. At home Leverkusen control the ball and the game, and Schick is finishing at a rate that makes 2.03 expected goals a dangerous figure for any opponent.
Stuttgart Form, Stats & Data
Stuttgart’s attack has underperformed its chances, which is the one reason for caution. The bigger number is 2.50 expected goals against per game: they are giving up more than any side I would want to back on the road, and that was with Stiller screening the back four.
Leverkusen vs Stuttgart: Prediction & Betting Tip
Stuttgart can still hurt Leverkusen. They create enough to score at the BayArena, and Leverkusen’s collapse at Hoffenheim and slow start against Nürnberg show the defence can be rattled. If Stuttgart’s finishing finally catches up with their chances, this becomes a much closer game than the table suggests.
I do not think Saturday is the day for it. Stuttgart arrive without their best passer from deep, without their first-choice right-back and with a Champions League trip on Tuesday, while Leverkusen have won every home league game. That is why Bayer Leverkusen to win at 1.81 with Winz is my main bet at 4/10. I can see this ending 3-1.