A title decider on artificial turf – and a sick bay in Bodø
Pre-match update (18:05 CET): The illness in the Glimt camp has not, so far, turned into a list of confirmed absentees. Knutsen said on Thursday that nobody looked like missing the game, and nothing reported since has changed that: August Mikkelsen remains the only senior outfield player listed out alongside the long-term injured. Viking’s injury list is the same as when this preview went up. I could not confirm the official team sheets from two reliable sources at the time of writing, so the predicted XIs below still stand. Nothing here weakens the case for the visitors, so my bet stays Viking +0.75 (Asian Handicap) at 1.86 with Winz, 2/10. The odds quoted are from 29 October; prices may have moved since.
Five rounds after this one, and three points between them. Viking arrive at Aspmyra top of Eliteserien on 59 points, Bodø/Glimt are second on 56, and a home win would bring Glimt level on points. But Glimt’s preparation has been far from normal. Training was partly closed from Tuesday to Thursday, several players missed sessions through illness, and Kjetil Knutsen admitted he had been laid low himself.
“Det har vært unormalt mye sykdom denne uken.” (“There has been an unusual amount of illness this week.”) – Jens Petter Hauge, speaking to VG
Predicted lineups: Bodø/Glimt vs Viking
Avisa Nordland reported that Sondre Auklend, Ole Blomberg, Kristian Kitolano, August Mikkelsen and Faye Lund missed Wednesday’s session, while Ola Brynhildsen and Mvuka trained on their own. Knutsen insisted that nobody looked like missing the game “right here and now”, so the predicted XI below assumes his usual side – but Blomberg, his most productive attacker with 13 goal contributions, and Brynhildsen are the names to check when the team sheet arrives. Viking have injury doubts of their own: Sondre Bjørshol, Martin Roseth and Nicholas D’Agostino are listed out, and Anders Bærtelsen has a broken foot. Their spine – Østbø, Bell, Tripić and Christiansen – is intact.
Bodø/Glimt Team News & Preview
On the numbers alone, Glimt are still the best side in Norway. They average 2.90 expected goals per league game, keep 64% of the ball and have conceded only 21 times in 24 matches. The problem is the last ten days. A 4-3 defeat in Naples was followed by a 1-0 home loss to Vålerenga in which Sondre Brunstad Fet and Andreas Helmersen missed good chances, and Knutsen said he was disappointed his side did not handle the game better. It was only their second home league defeat of the season.
Now comes the illness, and with it the Champions League on Tuesday, when Lille visit Aspmyra. Knutsen’s line – “Vi har de vi har tilgjengelig” (“We have the ones we have available”) – sums up a week in which the coaching staff have had little control over who could train.
What works for or against Bodø/Glimt
- 2.90 expected goals per game and only 21 goals conceded in 24 league matches.
- Artificial turf and a home crowd that has seen very few defeats.
- Illness kept several first-team players out of training this week.
- Two straight defeats, including 1-0 at home to Vålerenga on Saturday.
- Champions League at home to Lille on Tuesday.
Viking Team News & Preview
Peter Christiansen has scored 15 league goals and found the net in seven straight matches, and Zlatko Tripić has 19 assists and an 8.11 FotMob rating, the highest of any player in this fixture. Viking came from 2-1 down at half-time to beat Fredrikstad 3-2 and then saw off Tromsø 3-1 on Sunday, which made it 12 wins from 12 home league games this season.
Away from Stavanger they are less dominant, and they have their own European trip to think about with Sabah coming on Wednesday. But they have handled this fixture well: 4-2 winners at Aspmyra last season and 5-0 winners at home in April. A draw keeps them three points clear with five games left, and I expect Viking to be comfortable playing for that if the game is level late on.
What works for or against Viking
- Christiansen has scored in seven straight games; Tripić has 19 assists.
- Won 4-2 at Aspmyra last season and 5-0 at home in April.
- Glimt create more than Viking: 2.90 expected goals per game to 2.28.
- Bjørshol, Roseth, D'Agostino and Bærtelsen are injured.
Bodø/Glimt vs Viking Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Bodo/Glimt vs. Viking Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Bodo/Glimt vs. Viking Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt Form, Stats & Data
Glimt’s 2.90 expected goals per game against 2.42 actual goals is the clearest sign that they could, and perhaps should, be top. It is also the strongest argument against my bet: if their chance creation survives the illness, Viking’s back four will be under constant pressure. Whether it does depends heavily on Blomberg and Brynhildsen.
Viking Form, Stats & Data
Viking score more than their chances suggest and concede less, which points to sharp finishing and reliable goalkeeping. They are happy without the ball – 49% possession – and that suits a game in which a point is a good result for them.
Bodø/Glimt vs Viking: Prediction & Betting Tip
Glimt are the better side over the season and they are rightly favourites. My doubt is about how big that edge really is this week: a squad disrupted by illness, two straight defeats, a manager who has been ill himself, and the Champions League on Tuesday. Viking, on the other hand, have a striker who scores every week and a creator with 19 assists, and they know a draw would be a good night’s work.
The Asian Handicap gives me that draw. With Viking +0.75, a Viking win or a draw pays in full, a one-goal Glimt win costs half the stake, and only a Glimt win by two or more loses it all. That last outcome is the obvious risk against a team averaging nearly three expected goals a game, and if Blomberg and Brynhildsen start, the home side’s attack looks much more like normal. That is why I am keeping it small: Viking +0.75 (Asian Handicap) at 1.86 with Winz for 2/10, and I can see this ending 2-2.