Two centre-backs down, one tired opponent: why Augsburg games keep breaking open
Pre-match update (14:35 CET): The confirmed line-ups back up the main points of my preview. With Bah and Brackelmann missing, Jeffrey Gouweleeuw comes into Augsburg’s back three alongside Keitel and Matsima, while Freiburg have Scherhant and Makengo fit to start, with Engelhardt in midfield and Höler up front. Nothing here changes my view, so I am sticking with Over 3.5 Goals at 2.10 with Winz (3/10). The odds quoted are from the morning of 30 October; prices may have moved since.
Augsburg’s league season reads like a run of scorelines from another era: 4-1 at Frankfurt, 3-2 at Bremen, 4-3 at Elversberg, 2-2 against both Leverkusen and Bayern. Manuel Baum now has to rebuild his back three without Juma Bah, banned for two games after his red card against Union, and Calvin Brackelmann, who is still recovering from concussion. Freiburg arrive with a strong record but heavy legs: this is their fourth game in ten days, and the Conference League calls again on Thursday.
„Wir wollen auch am Samstag die drei Punkte zuhause behalten.“ („We want to keep the three points at home on Saturday as well.“) – Manuel Baum
Predicted lineups: Augsburg vs Freiburg
The line-ups are now confirmed. Baum has rebuilt his back three without Bah and Brackelmann, who both started the 1-1 draw with Union, and without Noahkai Banks, who is out with a knee ligament injury: captain Jeffrey Gouweleeuw starts next to Keitel and Matsima. Further forward Augsburg are unchanged in shape, with Fabian Rieder, their best-rated player, and Michael Gregoritsch, their top league scorer, both starting. Julian Schuster replaces right-back Philipp Treu with Lukas Kübler, and both Derry Scherhant and Jordy Makengo are fit to start after missing the cup tie. Yannik Engelhardt partners Maximilian Eggestein in midfield, with Lucas Höler leading the line.
Augsburg Team News & Preview
Baum’s side play with the handbrake off. They average 2.43 goals per game and 6.7 shots on target, the busiest attack in this fixture, but they also allow 2.80 expected goals per match. That gap explains the scorelines. Even the 1-1 against Union was one-sided, with Augsburg having 25 shots to Union’s six before both teams finished with ten men.
Tuesday’s cup tie at third-tier Großaspach summed them up: 2-0 up, pegged back to 2-2, then winners through substitutes Ibrahimović and Kade. Baum talked up exactly that afterwards, saying he can always bring players off the bench who decide games late on. What he cannot do on Saturday is pick the two centre-backs who started the last league game.
What works for or against Augsburg
- Five of seven league games have finished with four goals or more.
- Bah and Brackelmann are both out, and Banks is injured too.
- Home games have been tighter: two of four went over 3.5 goals.
- Winless in five league games, but unbeaten at home.
Freiburg Team News & Preview
Freiburg are third and have the best defensive numbers of the two sides, but their recent schedule is relentless: 3-0 down at Monaco on Thursday, 3-1 beaten by Bayern on Sunday, and a 3-2 cup win over Wolfsburg on Wednesday that needed two late goals from Goto. Schuster rotated six players for that tie and admitted he is hoping that the players carrying knocks are fit for Saturday.
When Freiburg do play, their matches rarely stay quiet. They beat Bremen 4-1 and Gladbach 5-0, drew 2-2 in Frankfurt and lost 3-1 to Bayern, so four of their seven league games have gone over 3.5 goals. Yuito Suzuki leads them with four league goals.
What works for or against Freiburg
- Four of seven league games have had four or more goals.
- Fourth match in ten days, with a Conference League trip on Thursday.
- Concede only 1.21 expected goals per game, the best figure in this fixture.
- Treu misses out, but Scherhant and Makengo are fit to start.
Augsburg vs Freiburg Odds
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Augsburg vs. Freiburg Form Guide
Augsburg Form, Stats & Data
These are the numbers of a side that attacks in numbers and leaves space behind. Augsburg have actually conceded fewer goals than their chances suggest, which tells me the 1.86 goals against per game is the floor rather than the ceiling, especially with two centre-backs missing.
Freiburg Form, Stats & Data
Freiburg’s defence is the strongest argument against goals here, and Ginter is a big part of it. But their own attack scores well above its chances, and a team on its fourth game in ten days is far less likely to protect a lead for 90 minutes.
Augsburg vs Freiburg: Prediction & Betting Tip
The case against goals is real. Freiburg concede only 1.21 expected goals per game, Augsburg’s home games have been tighter than their away games, and tired teams sometimes sit deeper rather than chase. If Freiburg manage this like an away point to protect, four goals will be hard to reach.
I expect the opposite. Augsburg will attack as they always do, now with Gouweleeuw, Keitel and Matsima as a reshaped back three, and Freiburg’s fatigue is more likely to show in their defending than in their willingness to counter. Both teams have games of four or more goals as a regular feature, so I am backing Over 3.5 Goals at 2.10 with Winz at 3/10. My prediction is 2-3.