Bologna’s away form has not travelled home – and Monza always find a goal
Pre-match update (14:05 CET): Andrea Zanotti has been appointed referee. The official line-ups are not out yet, so the XIs below are still predicted. Bologna have now ruled out Enem and De Silvestri as well as Piccoli and Holm, while Monza remain without their captain Folorunsho, Pessina and Ziółkowski. Nothing in the team news weakens the case for goals at both ends, so I am sticking with Both Teams to Score at 1.76 with Winz at 3/10. The odds quoted are from 30 October; prices may have moved since.
Bologna have just won 4-2 at San Siro, with Samuel Mbangula scoring a hat-trick against Milan on Wednesday. It was their third away win in four games. The Dall’Ara has been a different story: no win in four league games there, and a goal conceded in every one of them. Monza arrive bottom-half and battered after a 4-1 home defeat to Napoli, but they have something no other side in this fixture can claim: they have scored in every league game this season.
“Siamo disastrosi.” (“We are disastrous.”) – Monza manager Ivan Jurić after the 4-1 defeat to Napoli
Predicted lineups: Bologna vs Monza
Raffaele Palladino is without Piccoli (hamstring) and Emil Holm (thigh), and Enem and De Silvestri have also been ruled out. Riccardo Orsolini is back in group training but is more likely to be used from the bench. Jurić loses his captain: Folorunsho has a calf problem, and Pessina is also out. Both sides played on Wednesday night, so neither has had more than two and a half days to recover.
Bologna Team News & Preview
Nine points from the last four games have lifted Bologna to 11th, and the win in Milan showed how dangerous they are when they can break forward. Mbangula’s hat-trick took him to three league goals, and Juan Miranda, their best-rated player, has supplied four assists from left wing-back.
At home the picture is very different. Bologna have lost to Lazio and Inter and drawn with Sassuolo and Torino at the Dall’Ara, conceding seven goals in those four games. They have scored in three of them, but they have not kept a home clean sheet all season.
What works for or against Bologna
- Scored four at San Siro on Wednesday, including a Mbangula hat-trick.
- Have scored in five straight league games.
- No home win and no home clean sheet in four attempts.
- Played on Wednesday, like Monza.
Monza Team News & Preview
Monza are 16th and have conceded 22 goals, but their attack has kept them in games. Gustavo Varela has eight league goals and leads the Serie A scoring chart, and Monza average 5.6 shots on target per game, more than Bologna. Away from home they have lost four of five, yet they scored in every one of those trips, including at Inter and Lazio.
Jurić was scathing after the Napoli defeat, and losing Folorunsho hurts their midfield balance. That makes another clean sheet at their end unlikely; it does not stop Varela.
What works for or against Monza
- Scored in all nine league games, eight goals from Varela.
- Both teams have scored in all five away games.
- Captain Folorunsho is out with a calf injury.
- Beaten 4-1 at home by Napoli on Wednesday.
Bologna vs Monza Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Bologna vs. Monza Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Bologna vs. Monza Form Guide
Bologna Form, Stats & Data
Bologna’s numbers are balanced rather than dominant: 1.41 expected goals for, 1.30 against. That is not the profile of a side that shuts teams out at home, and their record at the Dall’Ara confirms it.
Monza Form, Stats & Data
Monza’s goals against are far worse than their chances allowed would suggest, which tells me they are leaky rather than overrun. Going forward they are more productive than Bologna, and almost all of it runs through Varela.
Bologna vs Monza: Prediction & Betting Tip
The risk is a Bologna side that has found its feet. If they defend the way they did at Cagliari, where they kept a clean sheet, Monza could be held to nothing for the first time this season, and tired legs after Wednesday could make this a scrappier game than either side’s numbers suggest.
I still want goals at both ends. Monza have scored in every league game and in every away game, Bologna have conceded in every home game, and the hosts carry enough threat to punish a Monza back line that has let in 22. Both Teams to Score at 1.76 with Winz is my selection at 3/10, and I think 2-1 to Bologna is the most likely score.