The Championship’s best home side welcome a QPR team riding a 5-0 high
Pre-match update (15:05 CET): The official line-ups were not out when I checked. At his Friday press conference Tonda Eckert said he was „very positive“ that at least one of Cyle Larin and Flynn Downes would make the matchday squad, which is a little less than the pair I had expected back. Neither was in my predicted XI, so the core of the bet, five wins and a draw from six at St Mary’s, is unchanged. There has been no fresh news on Jake Clarke-Salter, who was a doubt for QPR earlier in the week. I am sticking with Southampton to win at 1.78 with Winz at 3/10. The odds quoted are from 30 October; prices may have moved since.
QPR come into this on the back of the most eye-catching result of last weekend: 5-0 against Swansea, with Richard Kone scoring a first-half hat-trick and the game over by the break. Southampton’s own weekend was just as impressive. They went 3-1 up at West Ham inside 34 minutes and held on for a 3-2 win. Without a four-point deduction for filming other clubs‘ training, Tonda Eckert’s side would be second; at St Mary’s they have dropped only two points all season.
“Flynn even got another injection, so I’m quite positive that they’ll be involved next week.” – Southampton head coach Tonda Eckert on Flynn Downes and Cyle Larin
Predicted lineups: Southampton vs QPR
Larin, the club’s top league scorer, and Downes were late withdrawals at West Ham. On Friday Eckert said he was very positive that at least one of the two would be back in the matchday squad. The side that won at the London Stadium may be kept, with the pair on the bench. QPR boss Julien Stéphan expects Boy Kemper to be fit after he limped off against Swansea, but Jake Clarke-Salter is a doubt, and Tariq Lamptey and Rumarn Burrell are still out.
Southampton Team News & Preview
St Mary’s has been a fortress: 3-1, 5-1, 3-1, 4-1 and 1-0 wins, plus a goalless draw with Bolton. Four of those five wins came by at least two goals. The only league defeat in Southampton’s last ten games came at Wrexham, and the West Ham win showed they can now hurt the division’s best sides away from home too.
Kuryu Matsuki, Lewis Dobbin and James Bree all scored in east London, Finn Azaz is the side’s best-rated player, and Southampton average 2.0 goals per game with 56.7% possession. Having Larin back as an option from the bench would only add to that.
What works for or against Southampton
- 16 points from 18 at home, 16 goals scored and four conceded.
- One defeat in their last ten league games.
- At least one of Larin and Downes is expected back in the squad.
- Held 0-0 at home by Bolton two weeks ago.
QPR Team News & Preview
QPR are a hard side to beat, with only two league defeats and the same goals-against record as Southampton, 12 in 12. But the Swansea rout came at Loftus Road, and the away form tells a different story: three draws and a 3-0 defeat at Birmingham in their last four trips. Before the 5-0, they had scored only six goals in six league games.
Kone’s hat-trick was his first goals of the season, and Harvey Vale remains their best-rated player. Clarke-Salter’s absence would weaken a defence that has been the base of their season.
What works for or against QPR
- Only two league defeats and 12 goals conceded in 12 games.
- Scored five against Swansea last weekend.
- Winless in four away league games.
- Clarke-Salter is a doubt in central defence.
Southampton vs QPR Odds
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Southampton Form, Stats & Data
Southampton score a little above their chances and concede well below them, which is what a good home record looks like in numbers. At St Mary’s the gap has been even bigger: four goals conceded in six games.
QPR Form, Stats & Data
QPR’s underlying numbers are genuinely good, and that is the case against my bet. The catch is the split: their defensive solidity has not turned into wins on the road, where they have taken three points from their last four trips.
Southampton vs QPR: Prediction & Betting Tip
QPR are no soft touch. They allow only 1.14 expected goals per game, they have lost just twice, and a team that has just scored five will arrive with confidence. If they defend like they did in goalless draws earlier in the season, a draw is a real possibility.
Southampton’s home record outweighs that for me. Five wins and a draw from six at St Mary’s, four goals conceded, one league defeat in ten, and at least one of Larin and Downes expected back in the squad. Against a side without an away win in four, I am backing Southampton to win at 1.78 with Winz at 3/10. I expect a 2-0.