Six straight wins, but Atlético have been winning narrowly
Pre-match update (13:05 CET): The official line-ups are not out yet, so the XIs below are still predicted and I will add the confirmed teams shortly before kick-off. There is no new team news that changes my view: Koke and Johnny Cardoso are still missing from Atlético’s midfield, Levante are still without Bardeli, and local reports in Valencia have Roger Brugué in the side after he came off early at Real Sociedad. My bet and stake stay the same. The odds quoted are from 30 October; prices may have moved since.
Atlético arrive in Valencia on a run of six straight league wins, but the margins have shrunk: 2-1 against Real Madrid and at Alavés, then 1-0 at Espanyol and 1-0 at home to Deportivo. Next week is huge for Diego Simeone, with Bayern at the Metropolitano on Tuesday and Barcelona there next Sunday. Levante, meanwhile, had a free midweek after their Copa del Rey tie was postponed, and their home games have been full of goals: 5-2 against Betis, 3-3 against Sevilla and 3-1 against Athletic.
Levante have scored at least twice in every home league game this season – 13 goals in four matches at the Ciutat de València.
Predicted lineups: Levante vs Atlético
Atlético’s midfield is short. Koke has a hamstring injury and Johnny Cardoso a muscle problem, and both are still training on their own. Cristian Romero has done three sessions after an adductor injury and could come back into the defence. Spanish reports expect Simeone to make changes with Bayern next up, which suits a home side that wants an open game. Luís Castro is without Bardeli, but Roger Brugué and Iván Romero, who both came off early at Real Sociedad, are expected to start.
Levante Team News & Preview
Levante are 14th and their defence is the reason: 19 goals conceded in ten games and 2.01 expected goals allowed per match. But they are a different side at home. They have taken seven points from four games there, and the only defeat was a 4-2 against Barcelona in which they still scored twice. Brugué leads the team with five league goals and is also their best-rated player.
The away form is poor, with three points from six games, but that matters less on Saturday. In their own stadium Castro’s team attack and keep games alive, which is exactly what this bet needs.
What works for or against Levante
- Scored in every home league game, 13 goals in four matches.
- The only home defeat was by two goals, against Barcelona.
- 19 goals conceded in ten league games.
Atlético Team News & Preview
Atlético are second, two points behind Barcelona, and have the best defensive record of the two sides by a distance with eight goals conceded. Away from home they have won four of five. They finished the 1-1 draw in Stuttgart with ten men after Hjulmand’s red card, a ban that only applies in Europe.
Julián Álvarez ended a scoring drought with the winner against Deportivo, and Álex Baena has five league goals. The big wins have come too, with 4-0 against Osasuna and 3-0 at Real Sociedad, but the recent pattern is one of tight games and narrow wins.
What works for or against Atlético
- Last four league wins all by one goal.
- Bayern on Tuesday and Barcelona next Sunday make rotation likely.
- Eight goals conceded in ten league games, four away wins out of five.
Levante vs Atlético Odds
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Levante vs. Atlético Stats Comparison
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Levante vs. Atlético Form Guide
Levante Form, Stats & Data
Levante score more than their chances suggest, and almost all of those goals have come at home. The defensive numbers are weak, which is why I am taking a cushion of more than a goal rather than backing them outright.
Atlético Form, Stats & Data
Atlético create 1.70 expected goals per game. That is good, but not the kind of output that produces regular three-goal wins. Their strength is control and defending, and that usually means games decided by small margins.
Levante vs Atlético: Prediction & Betting Tip
The danger is obvious. Levante’s defence leaks chances, and if Atlético score first and Levante have to chase, a 3-0 like the one at Real Sociedad is possible. A two-goal Atlético win would lose this bet in full.
I expect another tight game. Levante score at home, Atlético have been winning by one goal, and Simeone has Bayern and Barcelona in the next eight days. With +1.25, a draw or a Levante win pays out in full, a one-goal Atlético win pays half the stake at these odds and refunds the other half, and only a win by two or more goals loses the bet. That is why Levante +1.25 (Asian Handicap) at 1.72 with Winz is my pick at 2/10. I see Atlético winning 2-1.