A new man in the Turf Moor dugout, but the same home problem
Pre-match update (15:05 CET): I have found no new absences for either side since this preview went live. Kyle Walker, Armando Broja and Jamie Vardy are still listed as doubts for Burnley, and Portsmouth remain without Colby Bishop, with Conor Shaughnessy and Josh Murphy pushing to return. The official team sheets were not yet available to me at the time of this check, so the line-ups below are still predicted. Nothing has changed my view: Portsmouth Double Chance at 1.72 with Winz stays my bet at 2/10. The odds quoted are from 30 October; prices may have moved since.
Burnley sacked Nicky Hayen less than two hours after last Saturday’s 4-1 defeat at Lincoln, which left them 22nd with one league win from 12. Fabio Celestini, who won a league and cup double with Basel, was appointed on Wednesday and takes charge for the first time against Portsmouth. He inherits a side that has not won a league game at Turf Moor this season and an injury list that grew again at Sincil Bank. Portsmouth, meanwhile, are unbeaten in four and have one of the meanest away defences in the division.
“When I look at Burnley, I see a club with potential and players of great quality.” – new Burnley head coach Fabio Celestini
Predicted lineups: Burnley vs Portsmouth
Kyle Walker and Armando Broja both went off at Lincoln, Broja after only 11 minutes, and Jamie Vardy missed that game. All three are doubts. Zeki Amdouni, the club’s top league scorer, and Jacob Bruun Larsen, their best-rated player, are among the long list of absentees. Josh Cullen and Jaydon Banel could return after Under-21 minutes. Portsmouth will be without Colby Bishop, whose knee injury is worse than first feared, but Conor Shaughnessy and Josh Murphy are pushing to return.
Burnley Team News & Preview
Burnley’s home record reads 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 1-1, 2-2 and 1-2: no wins, and they have conceded in every one of those games. Across the league they have 25 goals against in 12 matches and allow 1.68 expected goals per game. The Lincoln defeat was the low point, with all four goals conceded in the second half.
A new coach can change the mood quickly, and that is the main reason I am keeping my stake small. But Celestini has had three days with the squad, and he is likely to be without several senior players.
What works for or against Burnley
- No win in six home league games, conceding in all of them.
- Walker, Broja and Vardy are doubts, Amdouni and Bruun Larsen out.
- A new head coach can bring a short-term lift.
- Celestini has had only three days of training with the squad.
Portsmouth Team News & Preview
John Mousinho’s side are 11th and in steady form: a 3-2 win over Sheffield United, 1-0 at Norwich, 1-1 at Wolves and a 2-1 comeback against Millwall last weekend, when Waddingham scored the winner seven minutes from time. Away from home they have won two, drawn two and lost two, conceding only five goals in those six games.
They are not prolific, and losing Bishop for a long spell hurts their attack, but this is a team that rarely gets opened up. Conor Shaughnessy, their best-rated player, would be a welcome return in defence.
What works for or against Portsmouth
- Unbeaten in four league games.
- Five goals conceded in six away games.
- Colby Bishop is out long-term.
- Only 1.33 goals per game.
Burnley vs Portsmouth Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Burnley vs. Portsmouth Stats Comparison
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Burnley vs. Portsmouth Form Guide
Burnley Form, Stats & Data
Burnley have conceded more than their chances allowed would suggest, so some of this is bad luck. Even so, 1.68 expected goals against per game is a weak base, and both their top scorer and best-rated player are unavailable.
Portsmouth Form, Stats & Data
Portsmouth’s numbers are modest going forward but solid at the back. Allowing 1.13 expected goals per game is the better defensive profile in this fixture, which is exactly what a Double Chance bet needs.
Burnley vs Portsmouth: Prediction & Betting Tip
The new-coach effect is the obvious danger. Players often respond to a fresh voice, Turf Moor will be behind them, and on paper Burnley’s squad is stronger than their position. If that reaction comes early, Portsmouth’s lack of goals could leave them chasing a game they cannot turn round.
I am not convinced one week of change undoes six home games without a win and a growing injury list. Portsmouth defend well away from home, have lost one of their last eight, and only need to avoid defeat. Portsmouth Double Chance (Draw or Portsmouth) at 1.72 with Winz is my bet, at a deliberately small 2/10 because of the coaching change. I see this as a 1-1.