Ten games without a win, and no Memphis or Lingard
Pre-match update (23:10 CET): Neither club had named its starting XI when I checked, so the lineups below are still predicted. There are no new absentees on either side: Corinthians remain without Memphis, Lingard, Gabriel Paulista, Raniele, Labyad and Kayke, while Vitinho, Alex Santana and André Carrillo trained normally and are expected to be available. Local reports have Vitinho as the favourite to replace Dieguinho in the front three, and Mirassol travel with André Luís back from suspension. Nothing here changes my view, so Mirassol Double Chance stays my bet at 3/10. The odds quoted are from publication on 30 October; prices may have moved since.
Corinthians go into this relegation six-pointer 18th in the table on 33 points, four behind Mirassol, who sit just above the drop zone in 16th. The numbers behind that position are brutal: since winning 2-0 at Bragantino on 9 August, Corinthians have lost nine and drawn one of their ten league games. Clarence Seedorf took over in mid-October, watched the 1-1 draw with Vitória from the stands while his paperwork was sorted, and then lost 3-2 at Vasco on his first game in the dugout after two goals from Marino in the last three minutes. Friday night is his first home game on the bench, and his first chance at a win.
„Nossa mentalidade, neste momento, é que vamos jogar finais. Todos os jogos são finais.“ („Our mentality right now is that we are playing finals. Every game is a final.“) – Corinthians head coach Clarence Seedorf at his pre-match press conference on 29 October
Predicted lineups: Corinthians vs Mirassol
Corinthians are without their two most creative names. Memphis Depay has a thigh injury and is being targeted for the derby against São Paulo next week, while Jesse Lingard is suspended after picking up his third yellow card at Vasco. Gabriel Paulista is also out with an adductor strain, so André Ramalho and Gustavo Henrique stay together at centre-back. One attacking place is open between Dieguinho, Vitinho and Kaio César, with Vitinho tipped by local reports on matchday to come in. Mirassol have no new problems: Negueba is still out, but striker André Luís is back from suspension and pushing Bruno Santos for a start.
Corinthians Team News & Preview
The home form is the biggest worry. Corinthians have lost at home to Cruzeiro, Santos, Chapecoense and Fluminense during this run, and the only point at the Neo Química Arena since July came in the 1-1 draw with Vitória. Their last home league win was against Remo on 23 July. Losing 2-1 to bottom club Chapecoense in São Paulo tells you how far the confidence has dropped.
They are not a side without quality. Rodrigo Garro is their best-rated player, and they keep more of the ball than most teams in the league. But 34 goals in 32 games is barely more than one a game, and their leading league scorers have only four goals each. Without Memphis and Lingard, it is hard to see where the goals come from. Seedorf has already faced questions about his own job, which he called „madness“ on Thursday.
What works for or against Corinthians
- Nine defeats and one draw in the last ten league games.
- No home league win since 23 July.
- Memphis injured, Lingard and Gabriel Paulista unavailable.
- First home game for Seedorf on the bench.
Mirassol Team News & Preview
Mirassol have handled the run-in far better. In their last seven league games they have three wins, three draws and only one defeat, a 1-0 loss at Bahia in which Reinaldo blazed a late penalty over the bar. They beat Internacional 2-0 and drew 1-1 with São Paulo in their last two, and they won 2-1 at Coritiba in September.
They are also creating more than Corinthians. Mirassol’s expected goals for the season stand at 42.3 against 33.7 for the hosts, and Igor Formiga, with four goals from full-back, is their best-rated player. Eduardo leads the scoring with seven. Rafael Guanaes has been in charge for a long time and the side know their roles, which matters in a game like this.
What works for or against Mirassol
- One defeat in the last seven league games.
- Higher expected-goals total than Corinthians this season.
- André Luís back from suspension.
- Only one away win in their last six league trips.
Corinthians vs Mirassol Odds
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Corinthians vs. Mirassol Stats Comparison
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Corinthians vs. Mirassol Form Guide
Corinthians Form, Stats & Data
Corinthians have plenty of the ball but little to show for it. An xG of 33.7 over 32 games is not the output of a side that dominates games, and with Memphis and Lingard missing, the creative load falls almost entirely on Garro.
Mirassol Form, Stats & Data
Mirassol concede chances, but they also create more than their goal tally suggests. They have been hard to beat in recent weeks, and that is what this bet needs.
Corinthians vs Mirassol: Prediction & Betting Tip
The case for Corinthians is emotional rather than statistical. Seedorf has called on the supporters to get behind the team, he has told his players every game is a final, and a team this big will not lose ten out of eleven forever. Mirassol also have only one win in their last six away league games, so they are not a side that travels with total confidence.
But I cannot ignore the form. Corinthians have not won a home league game since July, they lost at home to the bottom side, and they are missing their two most creative players. Mirassol have lost once in seven and create more than the hosts. I do not need Mirassol to win, only to avoid defeat, and that is why Mirassol Double Chance (Draw or Mirassol) at 1.84 with Winz is my bet at 3/10. I expect a 1-1.