A dead rubber for Racing, a final for Aldosivi
Pre-match update (00:20 CET): The official team sheets are not out yet, so the lineups below are still predicted. Friday’s reports from Avellaneda have Romero sticking with the side that lost at River, with Alejandro Tello pushing Lautaro Díaz for a place and Kranevitter possibly sitting alone in front of the back four. Miljevic and Espino are still out, while Leandro Córdoba and Leonardo Sigali are back on the bench. Nothing on the Aldosivi side changes my view. The tip and stake stay as they are: Aldosivi +1.25 at 1.49 with Winz (3/10). The odds quoted are from publication on 30 October; prices may have moved since.
The gap in what is at stake could hardly be wider. Racing Club are 13th in Zona B, already out of the race for the play-offs and out of both cup competitions, with interim coach Sebastián Romero in charge until the club appoints a permanent successor to Juan Pablo Vojvoda. Aldosivi are second from bottom in the same group and, more importantly, fighting for their top-flight status: with 19 points in the annual table against Deportivo Riestra’s 23 and only two rounds left, a defeat in Avellaneda would send them down tonight.
„Tenemos que volver al triunfo en el próximo partido y hacerlo de la mejor forma posible.“ („We have to get back to winning in the next match and do it in the best way possible.“) – Racing interim coach Sebastián Romero after the 1-0 defeat at River Plate
Predicted lineups: Racing vs Aldosivi
Romero has lost two players this week for reasons that have nothing to do with fitness: Matko Miljevic and Alfonso Espino have been left out of the squad for indiscipline. Miljevic is one of only two Racing players with two league goals this Clausura. Marco Di Césare (broken fibula) and Alan Forneris (cruciate ligament) are injured, and Valentín Carboni is fit again but not in the squad. Leandro Córdoba returns after injury. Aldosivi have no reported absences and are expected to keep the side that beat Belgrano, with Andrés Vombergar leading the line.
Racing Team News & Preview
This has been one of Racing’s worst seasons in years. They have won three, drawn three and lost eight of their 14 Clausura games, scoring only 14 goals, and their league top scorer has two. Recent weeks have brought a 2-0 home defeat to Belgrano, a 1-1 draw with Independiente and a 1-0 loss at River, and the team were booed off at the Cilindro last time out. Elimination from the Copa Argentina and Copa Sudamericana means they will not play international football next year for the first time since 2014.
They keep the ball, with 57% possession on average, but it rarely turns into chances: their expected-goals figure for the Clausura is 16.4 against 22.4 conceded. With nothing left to play for in their last home game of the year, two players frozen out and the coaching job still open, I struggle to see where a big performance comes from.
What works for or against Racing
- Eight defeats in 14 Clausura games.
- Nothing left to play for this season.
- Miljevic and Espino left out for indiscipline.
- 57% average possession in the Clausura.
Aldosivi Team News & Preview
Aldosivi are not a good side, and their record proves it: three wins, two draws and nine defeats. But they have kept fighting. They beat Belgrano 1-0 at home last weekend through Vombergar, their top scorer with six goals, to keep the gap to Riestra at four points.
The most interesting detail is how they lose away from home. Their last four league defeats on the road were 2-1 at Argentinos Juniors, 4-3 at Independiente Rivadavia, 1-0 at Huracán and 2-1 at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto. They have not been thrashed; they have been edged. Against a Racing side that rarely scores more than once, that matters for this bet.
What works for or against Aldosivi
- Must avoid defeat to stay up.
- Last four away league defeats were all by one goal.
- Won their last game 1-0 against Belgrano.
- Nine defeats in 14 Clausura games.
Racing vs Aldosivi Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Racing Club vs. Aldosivi Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Racing Club vs. Aldosivi Form Guide
Racing Club Form, Stats & Data
One goal a game and a top scorer on two tells the story. Racing dominate possession without hurting teams, and that is exactly why I would rather take Aldosivi with a goal-and-a-quarter start than back Racing to win comfortably.
Aldosivi Form, Stats & Data
Aldosivi concede too many, and they will spend long spells without the ball. But they have scored in most of their games and they have lost tight matches rather than heavy ones. Vombergar is the man who can make this a contest.
Racing vs Aldosivi: Prediction & Betting Tip
The risk is clear. Aldosivi have the second-worst record in the group and concede more than one and a half goals a game, and if Racing score early, the visitors will have to open up in search of the goal that keeps them alive. That could leave space for a two-goal Racing win, which would lose this bet.
I still think this line protects me well. Racing have nothing to play for, have left two attacking players out, and rarely win by more than one goal. With +1.25, an Aldosivi win or a draw pays out in full, a one-goal Racing win pays half the stake at these odds and refunds the other half, and only a Racing win by two or more goals loses. Aldosivi +1.25 (Asian Handicap) at 1.49 with Winz is my bet at 3/10. I expect a 1-1.