A sacked coach on one side, no away wins on the other
Pre-match update (19:15 CET): The official line-ups had not been released when I checked. The latest local reports confirm Guilherme Bossle as Coritiba’s interim coach, and Vitória are a little stronger at the back than I expected: centre-back Cacá and midfielder Gabriel Baralhas have been cleared by the medical department, while Mateus Silva is ruled out. Luan Cândido, Marinho and Jamerson are still missing and the 16-game winless run away from home stands, so my bet stays Coritiba Draw No Bet at 2/10. I could not re-check the price this afternoon; the 1.63 is from publication on 30 October and may have moved since.
This is a direct fight at the lower end of the table. Coritiba are 12th on 39 points and Vitória 14th on 38, both only a few points clear of the relegation zone with six games left, so the winner gets real breathing space. Both clubs arrive with problems. Coritiba dismissed Fernando Seabra on Tuesday after a 1-0 home defeat to Grêmio, decided by a stoppage-time header, and the club’s permanent staff will lead the team while a new coach is found. Vitória, meanwhile, have the worst away record in the league: no wins in 16 trips, with six draws and ten defeats.
„A gente quer vencer fora também, mas temos dez vitórias no campeonato mesmo sem vencer fora.“ („We want to win away too, but we have ten league wins even without winning away.“) – Vitória coach Jair Ventura after the 1-1 draw at Corinthians on 19 October
Predicted lineups: Coritiba vs Vitória
Coritiba get defensive midfielder Thiago Santos back from suspension, and he is expected to replace Nicolás Fonseca. Lucas Ronier is out for the season after knee surgery. Vitória’s defence is the big worry for Jair Ventura: centre-back Luan Cândido is suspended after a third yellow card, winger Marinho is banned after being sent off from the bench against Athletico, and left-back Jamerson, on loan from Coritiba, is not expected to play because of a clause in his loan deal. Mateus Silva and Ramon are injured. The good news for the visitors is that centre-back Cacá and midfielder Gabriel Baralhas have been cleared to return, and top scorer Renê is back from suspension. The official line-ups are not out yet, so the XIs below are still the latest local predictions, with Vitória now expected in a 4-3-3.
Coritiba Team News & Preview
Coritiba’s slide explains the sacking. Since winning 3-2 at Remo at the end of August, they have taken two points from seven league games: home defeats to Mirassol and Grêmio, heavy losses at Vasco (5-0) and Fluminense (4-0), a 1-0 defeat at Atlético-MG and draws with Athletico and Botafogo. Supporters from the club’s main organised group visited the training ground on Wednesday to demand a reaction.
The defence is the main problem. Coritiba have conceded 50 goals and their expected goals against stands at 52.4 after 32 games. Breno Lopes and Pedro Rocha have eight goals each. At home they are far more competitive than away, with five wins, five draws and six defeats, and their record against Vitória at the Couto Pereira is strong: 13 wins, seven draws and only two defeats.
What works for or against Coritiba
- Two points from the last seven league games.
- First game after Seabra's sacking, with an interim set-up.
- Thiago Santos back from suspension.
- 13 wins and two defeats against Vitória at the Couto Pereira.
Vitória Team News & Preview
Vitória have built their season at home. Thirty-two of their 38 points have come at the Barradão, where they hammered Chapecoense 4-0 earlier this month. Away from home they have drawn six and lost ten, including recent defeats at Flamengo, Atlético-MG and São Paulo, and draws at Mirassol and Corinthians.
They did win the reverse fixture 4-1, and Renê is a real threat with ten league goals. But the defence that faces Coritiba will be patched up, with Luan Cândido banned and the full-back positions stretched to the point where 18-year-old Wanderson Estrela is the only natural left-back available.
What works for or against Vitória
- No wins in 16 away league games.
- Luan Cândido and Marinho suspended, Jamerson unlikely to play.
- Top scorer Renê back from suspension.
- Won the reverse fixture 4-1.
Coritiba vs Vitória Odds
Match Result
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Coritiba vs. Vitória Stats Comparison
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Coritiba vs. Vitória Form Guide
Coritiba Form, Stats & Data
These are not the numbers of a side I would normally back. Coritiba give up plenty of chances, which is why I want the protection of Draw No Bet rather than a straight home win.
Vitória Form, Stats & Data
Vitória’s season averages hide a huge split between home and away. Their best player is their goalkeeper, which says a lot about how often they are under pressure on the road.
Coritiba vs Vitória: Prediction & Betting Tip
The strongest argument against Coritiba is their own form. They have not won in seven, they concede chances in every game, and a first game under a stand-in staff is always hard to read. A new voice can lift a squad, but there is no guarantee of it here, and Vitória have Renê back, with Cacá also fit again to steady their back line.
Still, Vitória’s away record is too consistent to ignore. Sixteen trips without a win is not bad luck, and this time they travel with a weakened back line. I do not trust Coritiba enough to back them outright, so I want the draw covered. Coritiba Draw No Bet at 1.63 with Winz is my bet at 2/10: a home win pays out and a draw returns the stake. The small stake reflects the uncertainty after the coaching change. I expect a 2-1.