A humiliated Croatia face the world champions in front of a sold-out Poljud
Croatia host Spain at Stadion Poljud in Split on Tuesday, 6 October 2026, on matchday four of UEFA Nations League A, Group 3, with kick-off at 20:45 CEST and Erik Lambrechts of Belgium as referee. The return of last Tuesday’s 4-1 in Seville comes three days after the worst night in Croatian football history: 0-7 at home to England in Rijeka, behind closed doors, with four goals conceded before half-time. Spain, meanwhile, have won all three games, lead the group on nine points and can mathematically secure a quarter-final place with a draw here. Slaven Bilić, appointed in July to replace Zlatko Dalić, is in his fourth match; the Croatian press is already discussing whether he would resign after another heavy defeat. Luis de la Fuente is in his fourth year, has not lost in 41 matches and has said that nobody in his squad should play more than three of the four games this window – which, with five players already lost to injury or family reasons, means another reshuffled Spanish eleven.
„Tu sam 20 godina i moram reći da prvi put osjećam sram nakon utakmice“ – Luka Modrić after the 0-7: I’ve been here 20 years and I have to say this is the first time I feel shame after a match.
Predicted lineups: Croatia vs Spain
Bilić said he wants to see „desire and character“ in Split and tportal’s headline on Monday was that he is making big changes. The consensus eleven in the Croatian previews (tportal, gol.dnevnik.hr) is a 4-3-3 with Mišić back in midfield after missing the England game, Šutalo in for Vušković’s partner, Gvardiol moving to left-back, Budimir up front and Perišić pushed to the wing; there are no suspensions and no new injuries, although the camp has been hit by a virus that affected Modrić, Baturina and Stanišić during the window. Spain’s side is dictated by availability and rotation. Eric García, Grimaldo, Nico Williams and Ferran Torres have all gone home injured, Fabián Ruiz has left for the birth of his son, and De la Fuente’s three-games-per-player rule points back to the core that won in Seville: Simón, Cubarsí, Huijsen, Cucurella, Zubimendi, Fermín, Oyarzabal. Lamine Yamal has started all three games and was withdrawn at half-time in Oviedo precisely to keep him fresh for this one; whether he starts a fourth is the main open question.
Croatia Team News & Preview
The numbers from Rijeka are hard to read twice. England had 64 per cent of the ball, 19 shots to 12 and ten on target to one; Kane scored on eight minutes, Bellingham on 21, Gordon on 39 and Saka in first-half stoppage time, and the second half added three more. Croatia’s only real moment was Kovačić failing to finish from close range at 0-3. Bilić’s own summary was that his team could not match England „ni u agresiji ni u tehnici ni u fizici“ – in aggression, technique or physique – and that confidence then collapsed; a day later he spoke of a group hit by a virus and of a „problem of will“, while insisting he is „sto posto siguran“ that he can lift the team. HNS president Marijan Kustić went into the dressing room afterwards to tell the players this is not how you play for Croatia, and Perišić posted at midnight that „words are superfluous, we can and must do better“.
What Croatia still have is a sold-out Poljud and a squad that has scored in every game this window – Modrić in Prague, Marco Pašalić’s header to win there, Beljo’s header in Seville. The problem is the other end: twelve goals conceded in three games, eleven of them in the last two, a Stanišić error gifting England their sixth and a back line that has not been the same twice. Bilić’s plan before Seville was to be „kompaktni“ and accept that Spain would have the ball; it lasted two minutes before Yamal scored. The ageing core – Modrić is 41, Perišić 37 – is the recurring theme in the Spanish coverage, and De la Fuente’s own warning was the opposite one: a team that has just taken seven will come out „mucho más motivados“. A reaction is likely; whether it is a defensive one or a desperate one is the question that shapes the goals markets.
What works for or against Croatia
- Sold-out Poljud, no suspensions, Mišić back in midfield and a squad that has scored in all three games this window.
- Croatia beat Spain 3-2 the last time they hosted them in the Nations League, in Zagreb in 2018.
- Twelve goals conceded in three games, one shot on target against England and an xG of 1.39 against 6.43.
- A virus has gone through the camp, the manager is under pressure after four matches, and the Croatian press is asking whether he survives another heavy defeat.
Spain Team News & Preview
Spain’s 3-1 over Czechia in Oviedo was a rotation game with a serious purpose. Yamal curled in from range on six minutes, Rodri added the second on 35 from a Pedri pass, and the planned half-time changes – Yamal and Baena off – took some of the edge away before Sláma pulled one back on 69 and Merino restored the margin on 89. De la Fuente’s message afterwards was that it was about winning, „pero sobre todo proteger a los futbolistas“, and that he would try to make sure nobody plays more than three matches. That matters here because the injury list is long: Eric García went home on 28 September, Grimaldo and Nico Williams followed with thigh problems, Ferran Torres with an ankle, Carlos Espí was called up from the under-21s, and Fabián Ruiz has left for the birth of his son and misses this game. Spain still have 24 players, and the ones who beat Croatia 4-1 are nearly all among them.
The Seville game is the template. Yamal scored on two minutes and again on 63, Pubill got the second, Nico Williams the fourth, and Spain had 63 per cent of the ball against a Croatian side that had promised compactness. The one soft spot is that Spain have conceded in every game this window – two to England on the counter at Wembley, Beljo’s header in Seville, Sláma in Oviedo – and a rotated back line with Fresneda or Pubill at right-back is where Croatia’s crosses for Budimir will be aimed. Yamal, with four goals and an assist in three games, is the difference-maker, and the one-player question De la Fuente has to answer is whether a sold-out Poljud is the place to rest him.
What works for or against Spain
- Three wins from three, 41 matches unbeaten, 4-1 in Seville a week ago and Lamine Yamal with four goals and an assist in the window.
- Spain have won the last two meetings 4-1 and 3-0, scoring early in both, and the two Nations League group games played in Spain finished 6-0 and 4-1.
- Conceded in all three games this window and travel without Nico Williams, Ferran Torres, Eric García, Grimaldo and Fabián Ruiz.
- De la Fuente's three-games-per-player rule means a fourth different eleven and possibly a bench role for Yamal.
Croatia vs Spain Odds
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Croatia vs. Spain Form Guide
Croatia Form, Stats & Data
Three goals scored, twelve conceded: Croatia have found the net in every game this window and have kept nobody out. The 2-1 in Prague was a real win, built on Modrić and a Marco Pašalić header; the 1-4 in Seville and the 0-7 in Rijeka both began with a goal conceded inside the opening ten minutes. What I take from the week is a side that cannot defend transitions or set-pieces against top-level opponents but still carries a threat from crosses, and a manager who has every reason to send his team forward in front of a full Poljud rather than sit in another low block that has already failed twice. Both of those point to goals rather than to a Croatian clean sheet.
Spain Form, Stats & Data
Ten goals in three games and nine points, with Yamal scoring in every match, is as dominant as the Nations League allows. The detail I rate is how Spain have scored: inside two minutes against England and Croatia, inside six against Czechia, which means the opponent has had to chase every time. The detail that stops me backing a Spanish clean sheet is that they have conceded in all three games, including two at Wembley on counters and a header from a cross in Seville, and that the back line in Split will be the fourth different one in eleven days. A Spanish win is the likeliest result; a Spanish win with a goal at each end is the likeliest shape.
Croatia vs Spain: Prediction & Betting Tip
The way I read this, the direction of the result is not in much doubt but Spain to win at 1.28 leaves nothing in it, and the handicap depends on how Croatia react, which nobody can know three days after a 0-7. What I can rely on is the pattern of both sides‘ games. All three Croatia matches this window have had at least three goals, all three Spain matches have had at least four, Spain have conceded in every game, Croatia have scored in every game, and the last two meetings between them produced 4-1 and 3-0. Add a Croatian team that has to attack in front of a sold-out home crowd, a Spanish side that scores early and forces opponents out, and a rotated Spanish defence that has looked loose on the counter, and the over is the bet I trust most.
The strongest argument against is a Bilić reaction in the other direction: a deep, fouling, time-wasting Croatia that treats a 0-1 as survival, plus a Spanish eleven of fringe players content to manage the game once ahead. The 2023 Nations League final between these sides finished 0-0, and a rotated Spain scored only once after half-time in Oviedo. That scenario is real enough to keep the stake at four, but it runs against everything Croatia have shown about their defending this window: they have not kept a single opponent below two goals since the Prague game.
My main bet is **Over 2.5 Goals at 1.46 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 1-3.