Poland without Lewandowski visit a Bosnia playing its first game after Džeko
Bosnia and Herzegovina host Poland at the Bilino Polje in Zenica on Monday, 5 October 2026, on matchday four of UEFA Nations League B, Group 4, with kick-off at 20:45 CEST and Jérémie Pignard of France as referee. Sweden lead on seven points, Bosnia are second on five, Poland third on four, and a Polish win takes them above the hosts with two games left. The first meeting, in Warsaw on 25 September, was a colourless 0-0 in which Bosnia defended deep and Zlomislić saved everything; Poland have since lost 3-1 in Solna and beaten Romania 6-0, Bosnia have won 4-2 in Bucharest and drawn 1-1 with Sweden. The headlines since Friday have been about absences: Lewandowski’s suspension on the Polish side, and Džeko’s farewell and Alajbegović’s injury on the Bosnian side, where Sergej Barbarez said on Sunday that the aim is „to try to win“ and that the table can wait.
„Život ide dalje, Džeko će biti najsretniji ako mi dobijemo Poljsku“ – Sergej Barbarez after the Sweden game: life goes on, and Džeko will be happiest if we beat Poland.
Predicted lineups: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Poland
Urban settled the striker question on Sunday – „Swoją kolejną szansę dostanie Mateusz Żukowski“, Żukowski gets his next chance – and Interia expects only that one change from the side that beat Romania, with Świderski and Zalewski either side of him. Urban also complained about the Bilino Polje pitch, calling it „average“ and warning that a player could easily turn an ankle on it. Bosnia’s 23, submitted on Monday, is without Džeko, Alajbegović and Đurić, with Baždar and Tahirović coming in; Barbarez said Zlomislić is „almost 100 per cent fit“ and would start if Sunday’s training went well, otherwise Hamzić keeps his place, and he flagged two or three changes. No Bosnian outlet has published a projected eleven, so the side below applies those changes to the Sweden team: Tabaković, who took the armband when Džeko went off and scored in Bucharest, for Džeko, and Mahmić, a scorer in Bucharest, for Alajbegović.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Team News & Preview
Friday in Zenica was Džeko’s night, not Bosnia’s. Sweden had eight shots to four and 1.05 expected goals to 0.11, Gyökeres scored on 61 minutes after a Bašić–Katić mix-up and wasted a one-on-one ten minutes later, and Bosnia’s point came from an 80th-minute Alajbegović cross from the right that beat everyone and went in off the post. Džeko went off on 63, handed the armband to Tabaković, and Barbarez confirmed afterwards that he had „finished the active part with the national team“ – 152 caps and 73 goals. Alajbegović himself said Bosnia had „perhaps defended too much“ in the first half and that Sweden „were the better team“; Barbarez called it „a very hard match“ with few chances and admitted that four games in ten days was „a bit too much for me“.
The Bucharest win is the other side of the coin. Bosnia scored four there, three of them headers or from set-piece deliveries – Gigović and Mahmić from Bajraktarević crosses, Muharemović from a corner – and Klix called it one of the best games of the Barbarez era. The pattern across the three games is clear: deep and compact against Poland and Sweden, where the shot counts were six and four, expansive against Romania. Against a Poland side without Lewandowski, Barbarez has every reason to go back to the Warsaw plan, and the squad is in a cautious mood for another reason: Alajbegović, Kolašinac, Memić, Muharemović, Mahmić, Smajlović and Šunjić are all one yellow card from missing November. Alajbegović is out, which removes the man who scored the equaliser and set up the winner in Bucharest; Vasiljević is out for the window; Zlomislić is expected back in goal if fit.
What works for or against Bosnia
- Unbeaten in three Nations League games, a 0-0 in Warsaw built on a low block and Zlomislić, and four set-piece and cross goals in Bucharest.
- Poland arrive without Lewandowski and failed to score against this Bosnian block even with him in Warsaw.
- Four shots and 0.11 expected goals against Sweden, Džeko retired, and Alajbegović – the equaliser scorer and main creator – injured and out of the 23.
- Seven players one booking from suspension and a defence that gave Sweden its goal through a Bašić–Katić miscommunication.
Poland Team News & Preview
The 6-0 in Warsaw needs a qualification before anything else. Romania threatened Poland’s defence twice in the opening quarter of an hour, and then Drăgușin was sent off on 22 minutes for a push on Lewandowski in the box; Lewandowski scored the penalty and two more, Zieliński and Bednarek added goals, and Romania’s own goal made six. Urban himself said the penalty and the red card „turned the match“, and the Polish press, while enjoying the night, said so too. The things that survived the caveat were Zalewski’s performance, Wiktor Nowak – „I think we can say we have discovered a central midfielder for Poland“, said Urban – and a back four that the manager said he saw „no reason to change“ after switching from the back three that lost 3-1 in Solna.
Then the cost. Lewandowski’s 42nd-minute yellow card for a late challenge was his second of the window after the booking he picked up two minutes after coming on in Solna, and he is suspended; Interia called it „nightmare news“ for Urban, and Lewandowski said he regretted the card. Urban confirmed on Sunday that Żukowski of Magdeburg starts, with Świderski, 54 caps and a scorer against Sweden in March, alongside him and Reguła, who made his debut off the bench on Friday, in reserve. Mońka has gone to the under-21s, Kamiński left injured after 24 minutes of the first game, and Bułka has started all three with Grabara and Drągowski out. Poland have scored seven in three games but six of them came against ten men; in the two full-strength tests, against Bosnia’s block and against Sweden, they scored once in 180 minutes. Six Polish players – Kiwior, Bednarek, Cash, Puchacz, Zieliński, Świderski – are also on a yellow.
What works for or against Poland
- A 6-0 with 24 shots and 3.47 expected goals, Zalewski and Nowak in form, and a back four Urban wants to keep.
- Poland have never lost to Bosnia – four wins and two draws – and won 2-1 in Zenica in 2020.
- Lewandowski suspended after a hat-trick; the replacements are Świderski, Żukowski or a debutant, and Poland drew a blank against this block in Warsaw with Lewandowski playing.
- Six goals against ten men, one goal in the two full-strength games, and a defence that conceded three in Solna including a quickly taken corner.
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Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Poland Form Guide
Bosnia-Herzegovina Form, Stats & Data
Five goals scored and three conceded in three games, but four of the five came in one open game in Bucharest; against Poland and Sweden, the two stronger sides in the group, Bosnia produced ten shots across 180 minutes and one goal, and that from a cross that went in. What I take from the window is a side that defends in a compact block against better opponents and relies on set pieces and Bajraktarević’s delivery for its goals. Without Džeko and Alajbegović, and with seven players a card from a ban, I expect the Warsaw version of Bosnia rather than the Bucharest one, and the Warsaw version played out a 0-0.
Poland Form, Stats & Data
Seven goals scored and three conceded in three games is a healthy record until you remove the 68 minutes against ten men, after which it reads one goal in roughly 200 minutes of eleven-against-eleven football. The structure improved with the back four and Nowak in midfield, and Zalewski and Szymański give Poland width and set-piece delivery. But the finisher is suspended, and the alternatives are Świderski, whose last competitive goal came in the play-off final in Solna in March, and two players new to the side. I expect Poland to have the ball and the territory in Zenica and to find a deep Bosnian block hard to open, which is why I lean to a low-scoring game rather than to a Polish win.
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Poland: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, this fixture reads as a repeat of Warsaw with fewer attackers on the pitch. The first meeting was 0-0 with Lewandowski and Džeko both playing; now Lewandowski is suspended, Džeko has retired, and Alajbegović is injured. Bosnia defend deep against stronger opponents and had four shots against Sweden; Poland scored once in their two eleven-against-eleven games. Both squads have a long list of players one booking from a November ban, which tends to make for a careful game, and both are on their fourth match in eleven days.
The strongest argument against is Bucharest. Bosnia scored four there from crosses and set pieces, and Poland’s own set-piece defending has been a weakness Urban himself admitted – they conceded from a quickly taken corner in Solna and from a Nygren goal inside nine minutes. If Bajraktarević’s delivery finds Tabaković and Gigović the way it found them against Romania, this could be 2-1 either way, and the under would lose on one late goal. That is why the stake is four, and why both teams failing to score – the most likely outcome if the game is as tight as Warsaw – is the alternative.
My main bet is **Under 2.5 Goals at 1.93 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 0-1.