Relegation-threatened Örgryte face one of the league’s tightest home defences
Pre-match update (16:02 CET): I could not confirm the official line-ups before publishing this update, so the XIs below are still my predicted line-ups based on the last league starts. The team news has not moved against this bet: Per Frick is still out for Elfsborg, Arber Zeneli faces a matchday fitness test on a sprained foot and Marcus Rohdén is reported to be back in contention. Örgryte remain without the suspended Benjamin Laturnus, and Sebastian Lagerlund is still awaiting a late decision after his MRI scan. My tip and stake stay the same: Örgryte under 0.5 team goals at 2.16 with Winz (3/10). The odds quoted are from 31 October; I could not reconfirm them this afternoon, so prices may have moved.
Örgryte are 15th, on a direct relegation spot, one point behind Degerfors in the play-off place with four rounds left. They lost 1-2 at home to Mjällby on Thursday, their third defeat in four league games. Elfsborg are fifth and drew 2-2 at AIK on Tuesday, but at Borås Arena they have been very hard to break down this season.
“Jag hoppas han kan spela på söndag, men vi har lite koll att göra där.” (“I hope he can play on Sunday, but we still have some checking to do there.”) – Örgryte manager Andreas Holmberg on centre-back Sebastian Lagerlund, quoted by GP
Predicted lineups: Elfsborg vs Örgryte
No official line-ups were available at the time of writing, so both XIs are based on the last league starts. Elfsborg are without Per Frick, who FotMob lists as injured for one to two weeks. Örgryte lose midfielder Benjamin Laturnus to suspension, and centre-back Sebastian Lagerlund was due an MRT scan on a hamstring problem. I have put top scorer Noah Christoffersson into Laturnus‘ place, though Holmberg may well keep his back five and change the shape in midfield instead.
Elfsborg Team News & Preview
Elfsborg’s home record is the basis of this bet. In 13 home league games they have won seven, drawn four and lost two, conceding nine goals and keeping seven clean sheets. The last two were a 4-0 win over Halmstad and a 0-0 draw with Malmö. Their 30.6 expected goals against is the fifth-best figure in the Allsvenskan, so the defensive record is backed up by the chances they allow.
They also arrive in decent form, having won 2-1 at Djurgården before draws at Sirius and AIK. Leo Östman leads the scoring with nine league goals, and right-back Alexander Jensen has the best FotMob rating in the squad.
What works for or against Elfsborg
- Seven clean sheets in 13 home league games.
- Nine goals conceded at home all season.
- Conceded twice in each of their last two away games.
- Per Frick is injured.
Örgryte Team News & Preview
Örgryte have the 15th-best attack in the league by expected goals and keep the ball only 42.6 per cent of the time. Away from home they have scored ten goals in 13 games and failed to score in seven, and they have lost ten of those 13 matches. Ten of their 32 league goals have come on the road.
There is a real counter to that. Örgryte scored twice at Djurgården a week ago and beat GAIS 4-2 before that, and with relegation looming they cannot afford to sit back. Losing Laturnus, who started in midfield against Mjällby, weakens a side that already struggles to keep the ball.
What works for or against Örgryte
- No goal in seven of 13 away league games.
- Lost ten of 13 away league games.
- Laturnus suspended, Lagerlund a doubt.
- Scored two at Djurgården a week ago.
Elfsborg vs Örgryte Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Elfsborg vs. Örgryte Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Elfsborg vs. Örgryte Form Guide
Elfsborg Form, Stats & Data
Elfsborg do not dominate the ball, but they defend their box well and allow few clear chances, which is why so many of their home games stay tight. Against an away side that creates little, I expect them to control the game without needing much possession.
Örgryte Form, Stats & Data
Örgryte’s 58 goals against is the worst record in the league, but this bet is about the other end: 3.7 shots on target per game and a clear drop in output away from home. Most of their goals have come at home.
Elfsborg vs Örgryte: Prediction & Betting Tip
Elfsborg have kept seven clean sheets at home this season, Örgryte have failed to score in seven of their 13 away games, and they are missing Laturnus from midfield. I expect Elfsborg to take control after the break, with Örgryte forced to chase the game and leave space behind.
The strongest argument against is Örgryte’s situation and recent scoring: they found two goals at Djurgården and need points badly, and the reverse fixture in May finished 2-2. A goal from a set piece or a counter-attack is always possible. That is why I am only staking 3/10, but I still back Örgryte under 0.5 team goals at 2.16 with Winz. My prediction is a 2-0 home win.