Degerfors take the worst attack in the league to Stockholm
Pre-match update (13:10 CET): Nothing has changed that affects the bet. Degerfors have named their 20-man squad for Stockholm, with Kazper Karlsson back in it after his hamstring and groin problem and top scorer Dijan Vukojević also included. Djurgården have reported no new absences. The official starting XIs had not been released at the time of this check, so the line-ups below are still predicted. I am sticking with Degerfors under 0.5 team goals at 1.92 (5/10) and Both Teams to Score – No at 1.77 (2/10). The odds quoted are from 31 October; prices may have moved since.
Degerfors are 14th, sitting in the relegation play-off spot with 20 points and four rounds to go, and the problem is obvious: 21 goals in 26 games, a club record low according to Swedish reports, and the lowest expected goals total in the Allsvenskan. On Wednesday they lost 0-3 at home to Västerås in front of a season-low crowd of 2,688. Djurgården, third and still in the title race three points behind Hammarby, drew 1-1 at IFK Göteborg on the same night.
“Ingenting funkar. Det har det inte gjort på länge.” (“Nothing works. It hasn’t for a long time.”) – Degerfors midfielder Elias Barsoum after the 0-3 defeat to Västerås
Predicted lineups: Djurgården vs Degerfors
No official line-ups were available at the time of writing, so both XIs are based on the teams‘ last league starts. Miro Tenho is back after the illness that kept him out against Örgryte and started in Gothenburg. Bo Hegland, Matias Siltanen and Daniel Stensson were one booking away from a suspension before Wednesday. For Degerfors, midfielder Kazper Karlsson is back after six weeks out with a hamstring and groin problem and has been named in the 20-man squad.
Djurgården Team News & Preview
Jani Honkavaara’s side have dropped points in their last two league games, drawing 2-2 at home to Örgryte and 1-1 in Gothenburg, where Hegland’s late header earned the point. That leaves them three points off second and six off the top with four games left, so there is no room for another slip. The underlying numbers remain strong: 47.8 expected goals for and 29.6 against, the second-best defensive figure in the league.
The partnership of Kristian Lien and Hegland carries the attack. Lien has 16 league goals and Hegland has 15 assists, as well as the highest FotMob rating in the squad. At home Djurgården have scored 32 goals in 13 league games and failed to score only once.
What works for or against Djurgården
- Second-best expected goals against in the Allsvenskan.
- Lien has 16 league goals, Hegland 15 assists.
- Conceded two at home against both Elfsborg and Örgryte recently.
- Still in the title race, three points behind second place.
Degerfors Team News & Preview
The numbers behind this bet are about as clear as they get. Degerfors average 0.8 goals and 3.1 shots on target per league game, both among the lowest in the division, and their 25.2 expected goals is the lowest total in the league. Away from home they have scored nine goals in 13 matches and drawn a blank in seven of them, including four of their last five trips: 0-2, 0-2, 0-2, 1-1 and 0-4.
Henok Goitom’s side are winless in six league games according to Bollsvenskan, and their top scorer Dijan Vukojević has only four league goals. Barsoum insisted the squad has not given up, and the relegation fight will keep them motivated, but motivation has not produced chances so far.
What works for or against Degerfors
- Lowest expected goals total in the Allsvenskan.
- Failed to score in seven of 13 away league games.
- Two goals in their last five league games.
- Fighting to stay up, so they cannot simply sit back.
Djurgården vs Degerfors Odds
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Djurgarden vs. Degerfors Form Guide
Djurgarden Form, Stats & Data
Djurgården create plenty and allow little, and the 5.8 shots on target per game is the second-highest figure in the league. The recent home draws with Elfsborg and Örgryte are the one blemish, but both came against sides that create far more than Degerfors.
Degerfors Form, Stats & Data
Under one expected goal per game and the fewest shots on target in the division: Degerfors‘ low scoring is not bad luck, it reflects how little they create. A five-man defence away from home will keep their numbers in the final third low again.
Djurgården vs Degerfors: Prediction & Betting Tip
This bet rests on a full season of evidence rather than a short run. Degerfors have the lowest expected goals total in the Allsvenskan, have failed to score in half of their away games and have managed two goals in their last five league matches. Djurgården concede 1.14 expected goals per game and need the three points for the title race. The reverse fixture in July finished 0-1.
The strongest argument against the bet is Djurgården’s recent defending at home: Elfsborg and Örgryte both scored twice there, and a set piece or a penalty can break any blank. Degerfors have also given away six league penalties, the most in the league, though that is at the other end. I still back Degerfors under 0.5 team goals at 1.92 with Winz at 5/10, and my prediction is a 2-0 home win.