Bremen’s fresh legs against Hoffenheim’s 120-minute hangover
Pre-match update (14:35 CET): The teams are in. Olivier Deman has passed his fitness test and starts at left-back, and Niclas Füllkrug and Mitchell Weiser come back into the Bremen XI. Hoffenheim are more stretched than I expected: Vladimir Coufal and Conté are not in the squad, Valentin Gendrey broke his fibula at Kiel, and Christian Ilzer names a back three with 18-year-old Natnael Abraha in the starting XI. None of that weakens my case, so Werder Bremen Draw No Bet stays my bet at 3/10. I could not recheck the Winz price before kick-off, so the 2.12 quoted is from 30 October and the odds may have moved since.
Hoffenheim had the week every club wants until Wednesday night. They beat Lyon 3-0 in the Europa League, beat Leverkusen 3-0 on Sunday, and then spent 120 minutes and a penalty shootout losing a cup tie at Holstein Kiel. Saturday is their fourth game in ten days, and Crystal Palace away follows on Thursday. Bremen also went out of the cup, 3-2 at Dortmund, but in 90 minutes and a day earlier, and they have no European football. Daniel Thioune’s side are unbeaten in six league games, their best start since 2018/19.
„Ich finde, da kann man die Gelbe Karte auch mal in der Tasche lassen.“ („I think that’s a yellow card the referee could have kept in his pocket.“) – Daniel Thioune on Alexander Prass’s suspension
Predicted lineups: Bremen vs Hoffenheim
The line-ups are now confirmed. Thioune brings back Füllkrug, Weiser, Reis and Deman for Itten, Dinkci, Stalmach and Schmetgens, so Bremen start with the spine that has carried their unbeaten run, and Njinmah and Lynen are among the options on the bench. Hoffenheim are still without Alexander Prass, who is suspended after a second yellow for taking his shirt off against Leverkusen, and Hajdari, De Cat and Wimmer are also out. On top of that, Coufal and Conté miss out after the Kiel tie and Gendrey has a broken fibula. Ilzer answers with three at the back, Kramarić in the XI and the teenager Abraha in the side, which tells me how thin his options have become.
Bremen Team News & Preview
After a 4-1 defeat at Freiburg on the opening day, Bremen have not lost in the league: wins over Leipzig, Augsburg and Mainz, draws against Köln, Dortmund and Paderborn. Niclas Füllkrug is the engine of it with eight goals, and he has scored in six league games in a row. He started on the bench in Dortmund and still scored twice within three minutes after coming on, and he is back in the starting XI today. Marco Grüll, the club’s best-rated player, has supplied five assists. The Weserstadion record is two wins and a draw, 8-5 on goals. The defence is not watertight, but this team have kept finding a way to score.
What works for or against Bremen
- Six league games unbeaten, unbeaten at home.
- Füllkrug has scored in six league games in a row.
- Only 90 minutes in the cup and no European football.
- Five players out with muscle injuries, although Deman is fit to start.
Hoffenheim Team News & Preview
There is no doubting Hoffenheim’s quality. Last Sunday’s 3-0 win over Leverkusen featured Andrej Kramarić scoring the club’s 1,000th Bundesliga goal, and their underlying numbers are the better ones in this fixture. Away from home the results have been patchy, though: defeats at Köln and Paderborn, and a 2-1 win at Gladbach, who had not won a league game at that point. The workload is the issue. Ilzer’s players have had Thursday, Sunday and Wednesday games, the last of them going to extra time and penalties, and the trip to London is only five days away. Losing Prass removes one of the players who has made the difference this season, and Gendrey, Coufal and Conté are missing as well.
What works for or against Hoffenheim
- Back-to-back 3-0 wins over Lyon and Leverkusen.
- Fourth game in ten days after 120 minutes at Kiel.
- Prass is suspended, and Hajdari, Gendrey, Coufal and Conté are missing.
- Two defeats in three away league games.
Bremen vs Hoffenheim Odds
Bremen vs. Hoffenheim Stats Comparison
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Bremen vs. Hoffenheim Form Guide
Bremen Form, Stats & Data
Bremen score more than their chances suggest, and most of that is Füllkrug’s finishing. They also put 7.0 shots on target per game, more than Hoffenheim, which tells me they get into good positions often. Defensively they are vulnerable, so I want a bet that is refunded if this ends level.
Hoffenheim Form, Stats & Data
On paper this is the stronger side: more chances created, fewer allowed. Yet Hoffenheim have conceded 14 goals from 9.1 expected, and their best-rated player is suspended. Those numbers were also built by a fresh team, not one on its fourth game in ten days.
Bremen vs Hoffenheim: Prediction & Betting Tip
Hoffenheim’s underlying numbers are better than Bremen’s, and two 3-0 wins last week show what they can do when everything clicks. If Ilzer’s side handle the fatigue, they have enough attacking quality to win here, and Bremen’s injury list is not short either. The schedule is what tips it for me, and the team sheets only add to it. Bremen are rested, at home, unbeaten in six and have their in-form striker back in the XI, while Hoffenheim come off 120 minutes and penalties without Prass and with a patched-up back line. Draw No Bet keeps my stake safe if Hoffenheim grind out a point, so I am backing Werder Bremen Draw No Bet at 2.12 with Winz at 3/10. I think Bremen win 2-1.