The league’s meanest defence goes to Anfield without Saliba and Saka
Pre-match update (16:35 CET): The team sheets are in. Saka and Saliba are not in the Arsenal squad, Szoboszlai and Muñoz are only on the Liverpool bench, and Arteta has gone with Havertz up front and Christos Tzolis on the wing, leaving Gyökeres and Eze among the substitutes. Iraola hands Trey Nyoni his first league start alongside Mac Allister. Nothing here changes my view, so I am sticking with Under 2.5 Goals at 1.90 with Winz (3/10). The odds quoted are from Saturday (31 October) and could not be re-checked before kick-off; prices may have moved since.
Arsenal arrive at Anfield second in the table with seven wins from eight, and the reason is at the back: five goals conceded, five clean sheets and an expected goals against figure of 0.78 per game, all the best in the Premier League. Liverpool, fourth under Andoni Iraola, have won their last two league games against Brentford and Brighton but have been patchy at home. Both managers rotated heavily in the League Cup in midweek, and both have a Champions League game on Wednesday.
“It’s going to be a matter of winning the duels, running more than them.” – Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola
Predicted lineups: Liverpool vs Arsenal
Both line-ups are now confirmed. Liverpool are without Jeremie Frimpong, Hugo Ekitiké, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni. Dominik Szoboszlai and Víctor Muñoz have made the squad but start on the bench, as does Ryan Gravenberch, who played 90 minutes against Chelsea in midweek. Trey Nyoni makes his first Premier League start next to Alexis Mac Allister, Ronald Araujo plays at right-back and Florian Wirtz starts behind Alexander Isak. Arsenal are missing Bukayo Saka and William Saliba, and Max Dowman is suspended. Declan Rice, Riccardo Calafiori and Noni Madueke all start, Jurriën Timber comes in at right-back, and Kai Havertz leads the line with Christos Tzolis and Martin Ødegaard in support. Viktor Gyökeres, Eberechi Eze and Ben White are on the bench.
Liverpool Team News & Preview
Anfield has not been the fortress it used to be. Liverpool have won one of their four home league games, drawn two and lost 3-0 to Manchester City, scoring four goals in total. They have been better on the road, which is where three of their four wins have come. Alexander Isak leads the scoring with six league goals, and Cody Gakpo is their highest-rated player on FotMob. Iraola made seven changes for the League Cup tie against Chelsea, which finished 1-1 before Liverpool won 6-5 on penalties, so most of his first-choice players are relatively fresh. Losing Frimpong and Ekitiké does reduce his options, though, and with Szoboszlai only fit enough for the bench, Nyoni partners Mac Allister in midfield.
What works for or against Liverpool
- Four goals in four home league games.
- Frimpong and Ekitiké are out, Szoboszlai only on the bench.
- Isak has six league goals.
- Champions League trip to Fenerbahçe on Wednesday.
Arsenal Team News & Preview
Arsenal’s defensive record is the foundation of this bet. They have kept clean sheets in three of their four away league games, winning 1-0 at Nottingham Forest on their last trip, and none of their four away matches has seen both teams score. Only the 3-0 defeat at Brighton spoils the picture. Mikel Arteta’s side also keep the ball: 60.8 per cent possession on average, the third-highest share in the league. The absences are significant. Saka is their top scorer with three league goals and their second-highest-rated player, and without Saliba, Ezri Konsa partners Gabriel. Arteta made nine changes for the League Cup tie at Fleetwood, which Arsenal lost on penalties after a 1-1 draw, and for this one he has left Gyökeres and Eze on the bench.
What works for or against Arsenal
- Five goals conceded in eight league games, the fewest in the league.
- Three clean sheets in four away league games.
- Saka, a key source of goals, is out.
- Saliba is missing at centre-back.
Liverpool vs Arsenal Odds
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Liverpool Form, Stats & Data
Liverpool’s 1.51 expected goals per game is good rather than overwhelming, and Isak has scored more than half of their league goals. Against a defence that concedes 0.78 expected goals per game, I expect them to find chances hard to come by.
Arsenal Form, Stats & Data
The expected goals against figure is the best in the Premier League and supports the goals tally, so this is not a defence riding its luck. At the other end, Arsenal create plenty but convert at a steady rather than spectacular rate, and Saka’s absence removes their most reliable outlet on the right.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: Prediction & Betting Tip
Arsenal have the best defence in the league, have kept clean sheets in three of four away games and are without their top scorer. Liverpool have scored only four goals in four home games and are missing two attacking players. The last meeting at Anfield, in August 2025, finished 1-0, and I expect Arsenal to keep the ball and limit Liverpool to a handful of chances. The confirmed line-ups back that up: Arteta has started Havertz rather than Gyökeres and kept Eze in reserve, while Liverpool have an inexperienced partner for Mac Allister in midfield. The strongest argument against the bet is Saliba’s absence. Konsa is a capable replacement, but Arsenal’s back line will be less settled, and Isak can punish any hesitation. If Liverpool score early, the game could open up quickly, and Arsenal have Gyökeres and Eze to bring on. I still back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.90 with Winz with a 3/10 stake, and my prediction is a 1-1 draw.