Five goals in ten games and a squad at breaking point – Bordalás‘ Getafe welcome Sevilla
Pre-match update (13:10 CET): The official line-ups are in, and Bordalás has gone even more cautious than expected. Mangala, Femenía and Davinchi drop out; Getafe line up with five across the back – Andrés García, Carvajal, Gudelj, Djené and Boselli – and Valou joins Francho and Terrats in a three-man midfield behind Satriano and Ünal. Zaid Romero misses out. Sevilla’s XI is exactly as predicted. Nothing here weakens the case for a low-scoring game, so I am sticking with Under 2.5 Goals at 1.45 with Winz (3/10) and Under 1.5 Goals at 2.40 (1/10). The odds quoted are from 31 October; prices may have moved since.
Getafe are 18th, they have scored five league goals all season and José Bordalás has spent the last week in public conflict with his own club. After the 5-2 home defeat to Lugano in the Conference League he said he felt deceived and that the squad was not even good enough for one competition. At the Coliseum, though, his side remain hard to beat: unbeaten in five home league games, with results of 1-0, 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 and 1-1. Sevilla arrive sixth after a 2-0 win over Osasuna and a comfortable 3-0 cup win at Sporting de Hortaleza with a rotated side.
“No podemos permitirnos encajar tres goles a balón parado en un mismo partido.” (“We can’t afford to concede three goals from set pieces in the same game.”) – José Bordalás before Getafe’s Copa del Rey tie
Predicted lineups: Getafe vs Sevilla
Both line-ups are now confirmed. Getafe have two important absences: Mario Martín is suspended after a straight red card, and left wing-back Johan Mojica misses out after his fifth booking. Juanmi, Christantus Uche and Zaid Romero are also out, while Djené is back after his ban. Bordalás has switched to a five-man defence, bringing in Andrés García and Boselli, with Valou added to the midfield; Mangala, who scored in the cup, is left out of the XI. Sevilla are without Marcão and Miguel Sierra, and Stassin returns to lead the line alongside Isaac Romero.
Getafe Team News & Preview
Getafe’s numbers are stark. They have scored five times in ten league games, all of them at home, and failed to score in any of their five away matches. Their 0.60 expected goals per game and 2.5 shots on target per game are both the lowest in LaLiga, and they have the least possession in the division, at 36.7 per cent. Bordalás has turned that into a home formula: tight, physical games that rarely open up. The squad is thin. Getafe had to come from 2-0 down to win 3-2 at Lebrijana in the cup on Thursday, they host Brighton in the Conference League next Thursday, and they lose Mario Martín and Mojica for this one. Ramón Terrats, their highest-rated player, will have to carry more of the load in midfield.
What works for or against Getafe
- All five home league games have finished with two goals or fewer.
- Lowest expected goals and fewest shots on target in LaLiga.
- Mario Martín and Mojica are suspended.
- Went 2-0 down at Lebrijana in the cup on Thursday.
Sevilla Team News & Preview
Luis García’s Sevilla are sixth with 17 points, but their underlying numbers are modest. They create 1.11 expected goals per game and average only 41.7 per cent possession, the second-lowest share in the league, so they are not a side that dominates opponents. Their away games have been more open – 3-1, 1-1, 1-0, 3-3 and 1-4 – and they have scored in all five. Youssouf Fofana has been their best player this season, and Isaac Romero, who scored against Osasuna, leads the way with three league goals. Sevilla have no European football, so García can field his strongest side after resting players in the cup.
What works for or against Sevilla
- Only 1.11 expected goals per game.
- Second-lowest possession share in LaLiga.
- Scored in all five away league games.
- Three of their five away games had three goals or more.
Getafe vs Sevilla Odds
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Getafe vs. FC Sevilla Form Guide
Getafe Form, Stats & Data
The attacking column is as weak as it gets in LaLiga, and it is not bad luck: Getafe’s actual goals sit close to their expected goals. Twelve of their 15 goals conceded came away from home, which shows how differently they play at the Coliseum.
FC Sevilla Form, Stats & Data
Sevilla have scored more than their chances suggest, 1.60 goals from 1.11 expected goals per game. That kind of finishing tends to cool off, and against a Getafe side that defends deep with five at the back, I expect chances to be scarce.
Getafe vs Sevilla: Prediction & Betting Tip
Every one of Getafe’s home league games has finished with two goals or fewer, and they have the weakest attack in the league by any measure. Sevilla are happy without the ball and have been scoring above their chances. I expect a slow, physical game with long stoppages, which is exactly what Bordalás wants – and his five-man defence and three-man midfield only reinforce that. The strongest argument against the bet is Getafe’s defence without Mario Martín and Mojica, plus the set-piece problems Bordalás himself highlighted before the cup tie. Sevilla have scored in all five away games, and if they go ahead, Getafe may have to open up. I still back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.45 with Winz with a 3/10 stake, and my prediction is a 0-1 away win.