Nürnberg without Zoma, St. Pauli unbeaten in 14 meetings – the Millerntor puts the runners-up to the test
Pre-match update (12:35 CET): Nothing has changed since publication. There is no fresh injury news from either camp: Nürnberg are still without Zoma, Becker and Mandic, Faye remains a doubt, and Rapp has his whole squad bar the two long-term absentees. The official line-ups had not been released at the time of this check, so the XIs below are still predicted. I am sticking with St. Pauli Draw No Bet at 1.57 (3/10). The odds quoted are from 31 October (around 13:00 CET); prices may have moved since.
Nürnberg are second in the 2. Bundesliga, but the wheels have started to wobble. Since top scorer Mohamed Ali Zoma dislocated his shoulder at Cottbus on 16 October, Miroslav Klose’s side have drawn 1-1 there, lost 1-0 at home to Kaiserslautern and gone out of the cup 5-2 at Leverkusen after leading 2-0. Zoma has had surgery and is out until the winter break. St. Pauli, eighth, have not lost a league game since the end of August and come into this one after eight days without a match.
“Es sind alle fit, von daher werden wir dann sehen, welche Elf auf dem Platz steht.” (“Everyone is fit, so we will see which XI takes the field.”) – St. Pauli coach Marcel Rapp
Predicted lineups: St. Pauli vs Nürnberg
Apart from long-term absentees Mathias Pereira Lage and Gisli Thordarson, Rapp has his whole squad available, though he stressed that nobody is guaranteed a place, including striker Abdoulie Ceesay. Nürnberg are without Zoma, Finn Ole Becker and Mandic, while Faye is a doubt. According to liga-zwei, Ceresoli, Bøving and Haugen are expected to drop out after the cup tie. Both line-ups follow liga-zwei’s predicted XIs.
St. Pauli Team News & Preview
St. Pauli are a hard side to beat. They have conceded nine goals in nine league games, the third-best record in the division, and only Kaiserslautern have won at the Millerntor this season. Their expected goals against of 1.22 per game is the second-lowest in the league, so the defence is not riding its luck. The problem has been the other end: 11 goals and six draws, including a goalless draw at Darmstadt and 1-1 at Hannover in their last two.
Arkadiusz Pyrka has been their best player from wing-back, and Ceesay leads the scoring with four league goals. Rapp expects a difficult afternoon – „we will have to suffer at times“ – but also said he does not think the cup tie will be a factor for Nürnberg.
What works for or against St. Pauli
- Nine goals conceded in nine league games.
- Unbeaten in 14 meetings with Nürnberg.
- Eight days' rest and a fully fit squad.
- Only 11 league goals and six draws.
Nürnberg Team News & Preview
Klose’s Nürnberg play the most possession in the 2. Bundesliga, 57.9 per cent, and have scored 21 goals, the second-highest total. But Zoma was at the heart of it: seven league goals and the best FotMob rating in their squad. In the two league games since he was injured, Nürnberg have scored once.
The cup tie at Leverkusen exposed another weakness. Four of the five goals they conceded came from set pieces, three of them from corners. Klose said his team showed the courage he had hoped for, but they now have a long trip to Hamburg after a demanding midweek and have not beaten St. Pauli since May 2016. Piet Scobel, with six goals in all competitions, is the main threat without Zoma.
What works for or against Nürnberg
- Zoma, Becker and Mandic are out.
- One goal in two league games since Zoma's injury.
- Four set-piece goals conceded at Leverkusen.
- Most possession in the league and 21 goals scored.
St. Pauli vs Nürnberg Odds
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St. Pauli Form, Stats & Data
St. Pauli’s numbers point to a side that controls games defensively but struggles to turn that into wins. That is exactly why I prefer the Draw No Bet to a straight home win: their six draws are the biggest risk, and this market takes that risk out.
Nuremberg Form, Stats & Data
Nürnberg’s expected goals against of 1.80 per game is much worse than their goals-against column. They have been conceding fewer than their chances allowed, and without their best player the attacking output that covered for that is likely to drop.
St. Pauli vs Nürnberg: Prediction & Betting Tip
Nürnberg are second, but they are without their best player, have scored once in two league games since he was hurt, and arrive after a draining cup defeat. St. Pauli have one of the best defences in the division, a fully fit squad, eight days‘ rest and a 14-game unbeaten record against this opponent.
The strongest argument against the bet is St. Pauli’s attack. They have drawn six of nine league games and scored only 11 goals, so a home win is far from guaranteed even in a good position. That is why I back St. Pauli Draw No Bet at 1.57 with Winz with a 3/10 stake rather than the straight win. My prediction is a 1-0 home win.