Gent’s miserly defence meets a Lommel attack that has struggled at home
Pre-match update (17:55 CET): Gent have now published both line-ups. Volckaert comes in for Burgess, while De Vlieger and Cisse drop out of the XI, with Lopes and Dean starting. Lommel make one change, Reyners for Talvitie. My bet and the 2/10 stake stay as they are.
Pre-match update (17:40 CET): Gent will be without Christian Burgess, who went off in training with an ankle injury and has been ruled out, according to Sporza and Voetbalkrant. He is the leader of the back three that has conceded four league goals all season, so this hits the main reason for my bet. Balikwisha and Vergara are also confirmed absentees. I still expect Lommel to struggle against a Gent side that defends as a unit, so I am keeping Lommel under 0.5 team goals, but I am cutting the stake from 4/10 to 2/10. Official line-ups were not out at the time of this update. The odds quoted are from 31 October; prices may have moved since.
Gent are second, two points behind Club Brugge with a game in hand, after eight wins and a draw from nine league games. They beat Anderlecht 4-0 last weekend, and their defence has conceded only four goals all season. Lommel are eighth and finally play at home again after four away games in a row, the last of them a 2-2 draw at OH Leuven.
“In onze dominantie moeten we nog verbeteren.” (“We still need to improve when we are dominating.”) – Gent manager Rik De Mil, quoted by Voetbalkrant
Predicted lineups: Lommel vs Gent
The line-ups are now confirmed, as published by KAA Gent before kick-off. Neither formation was announced, so the shapes below are my reading of the two XIs. FotMob lists Sam De Grand, Dries Wouters, Ralf Seuntjens and Jhon Banguera as day-to-day for Lommel. Gent are without Josué Vergara, who picked up a muscle problem with Panama, and Mouhamed Ngom is out long term. Michel-Ange Balikwisha is also missing, and Christian Burgess has been ruled out after injuring his ankle in training. Volckaert takes his place in the back three.
Lommel Team News & Preview
Lommel have been far more dangerous on the road than at home. Their four home league games have produced four goals, all of them in a 4-0 win, and they drew blanks in two 0-1 defeats, one of them against Club Brugge, and in the 0-0 with Mechelen. Away from home they have won at Cercle Brugge and Beveren and drawn at OH Leuven, scoring five goals in their last two league games.
The underlying numbers are weak. Lee Johnson’s side have created 9.0 expected goals in nine games, the second-lowest total in the league, and average 3.1 shots on target. Don-Angelo Konadu is the top scorer with three league goals.
What works for or against Lommel
- Failed to score in three of four home league games.
- Second-lowest expected goals total in the league.
- Five goals in their last two away league games.
- Four squad players listed as day-to-day.
Gent Team News & Preview
Gent’s defence is the reason I am backing a Lommel blank. Four goals conceded in nine league games and 6.8 expected goals against are both the best figures in the Pro League, so this is not a goalkeeper carrying a weak back line. That makes the loss of Christian Burgess, ruled out with an ankle injury picked up in training, the most important team news of the weekend. Away from home they have won three and drawn one, conceding twice in four games.
The complication is the schedule. Gent lost 0-2 at Braga in the Conference League on 22 October and travel to KuPS on Thursday, and De Mil may rotate. Their 19 league goals have also come from 12.8 expected goals, so the attack has been more clinical than the chances suggest, which matters less for this bet than the defence.
What works for or against Gent
- Four goals conceded in nine league games.
- Best expected goals against figure in the league.
- Conference League trip to KuPS on Thursday.
- Burgess, Vergara and Balikwisha all out.
Lommel vs Gent Odds
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Lommel vs. KAA Gent Stats Comparison
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Lommel vs. KAA Gent Form Guide
Lommel Form, Stats & Data
Lommel’s goal difference of zero flatters them: they create one expected goal per game and allow almost two. Against the league’s best defence I expect them to spend long spells without the ball.
KAA Gent Form, Stats & Data
Gent do not need the ball to control games: 45.6 per cent possession, yet the fewest chances allowed in the league. That compact shape is exactly what makes life hard for a team that relies on a few attacks.
Lommel vs Gent: Prediction & Betting Tip
The league’s best defence travels to a side that has failed to score in three of its four home games and has the second-lowest expected goals total in the division. Gent have kept clean sheets in two of their four away games, and I expect them to keep Lommel to a handful of half-chances.
The strongest argument against has grown since I first wrote this: Christian Burgess, the organiser of that back three, is out injured, De Mil may rotate before KuPS, and Lommel have scored five goals in their last two league games. With only nine games of data and a key defender missing, I have cut the stake to 2/10, but I still back Lommel under 0.5 team goals at 2.35 with Winz. My prediction is a 0-2 away win.