Rested Twente travel to an Excelsior side that keeps losing at home
Pre-match update (13:35 CET): Twente’s team news is as expected. Lars Unnerstall is still not fit, so Joël Drommel starts in goal for the third game running, Thomas van den Belt replaces the suspended Daouda Weidmann and Bart van Rooij is back at right-back ahead of Michał Rosiak. Excelsior have a fully fit squad and their XI had not been confirmed at the time of writing. Nothing changes my view: Twente to win stays my bet at 5/10. I could not recheck the Winz price for this update, so the 1.53 quoted is from 31 October and may have moved since.
Twente are fourth, four points behind leaders Feyenoord, and won 2-0 at AZ last weekend. Because they enter the KNVB Beker only in the next round, they had the whole week off, while Excelsior played 90 minutes at MVV on Wednesday, winning 3-0. In the league Excelsior are 13th and have taken one point from their last five games, and their home form is the weakest part of their season.
Predicted lineups: Excelsior vs Twente
Twente’s XI is the one reported by the local site TwenteFans on matchday; Excelsior’s is still a predicted line-up. Twente are without Daouda Weidmann, who was sent off for a second yellow card at AZ, and Stav Lemkin, Filip Thorvaldsen, Max Bruns and Lars Unnerstall are injured. Joël Drommel, who kept a clean sheet at AZ, starts in goal again, Thomas van den Belt comes into midfield and Bart van Rooij returns at right-back instead of Michał Rosiak. Excelsior have no injury concerns, and Noah Naujoks is back after nine weeks out.
Excelsior Team News & Preview
Woudestein has not been a fortress. Excelsior have lost three of their four home league games, 1-2 to Utrecht, 1-2 in their other home defeat and 1-5 to Groningen, and they have conceded ten goals there, at least once in every game. Their only home win was 2-1. Ruben den Uil’s side do better away from home, where they drew 2-2 at Ajax and NEC.
The cup win at MVV, with two goals from Irakli Yegoian, was a lift, but it came after league defeats of 0-4 at Heerenveen and 0-1 at Fortuna Sittard. Excelsior’s 13.0 expected goals is one of the lower totals in the division, and they average 3.8 shots on target.
What works for or against Excelsior
- Lost three of four home league games.
- Ten goals conceded in four home games.
- Played 90 minutes in the cup on Wednesday.
- Beat Twente 1-0 at home last season.
Twente Team News & Preview
John van den Brom’s side have the best defence in the Eredivisie by expected goals against, 8.9 in ten games, and have conceded the fewest goals, ten. They also create the fifth-most chances in the league and average 6.8 shots on target. Away from home they have won two, drawn two and lost one, and they kept a clean sheet in last weekend’s 2-0 win at AZ.
Weidmann’s suspension removes one of the two holding midfielders, and Thomas van den Belt comes in to partner Ramiz Zerrouki. Wout Weghorst leads the scoring with four league goals but has not scored in the league since 20 September, so the goals are spread around Younes Taha, Daan Rots and Sondre Ørjasæter. Twente host Pafos in the Conference League on Thursday.
What works for or against Twente
- Best expected goals against figure in the league.
- No midweek game, fully rested.
- Weidmann suspended, Unnerstall out injured.
- Conference League game against Pafos on Thursday.
Excelsior vs Twente Odds
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Excelsior Form, Stats & Data
Excelsior have scored more than their chances suggest and conceded close to what they allow. With 44 per cent possession they will spend long spells without the ball against one of the best passing sides in the league.
Twente Form, Stats & Data
Twente’s results actually lag behind their underlying numbers: more than two expected goals per game, under one against. They win the ball high up the pitch more often than any other side in the league, which suits a game against a tired opponent.
Excelsior vs Twente: Prediction & Betting Tip
Twente are the better side on every measure that matters here: the best defensive numbers in the league, almost twice Excelsior’s shots on target, and a full week of rest against a team that played in the cup on Wednesday. Excelsior have lost three of four at home and conceded in every one of those games.
The strongest argument against is the absentees and the history. Weidmann is out, Unnerstall is injured so Drommel stays in goal, Pafos come on Thursday, and Excelsior beat Twente 1-0 here last season before a 0-0 in Enschede in January. That stops me going higher than 5/10, but I am happy to back Twente to win at 1.53 with Winz. My prediction is a 1-2 away win.