The Série B leaders can take a big step towards a first top-flight season
Pre-match update (21:40 CET): The official line-ups were not out when I checked, but the team news has moved on since I wrote this preview. Operário are without Boschilia, their top scorer and best player, who is in the medical department, and striker Berto is suspended. On the other side, Robson is a doubt with swelling in his left calf, with Carlão expected to lead the line again, goalkeeper Jordi is a doubt, right-back Alvariño is suspended and Enderson Moreira serves a touchline ban, so assistant Luís Fernando Flores takes charge. Juventude moved a point clear on 65 earlier today, so Novorizontino need the win to go back top. Losing Boschilia hurts Operário more than Robson’s doubt hurts the hosts, so I am sticking with Novorizontino to win at 1.45 (6/10). I could not re-check the Winz price for this update: the odds quoted are from 31 October and may have moved since.
Novorizontino go into the last three rounds on 64 points. Juventude moved one point ahead on 65 earlier on Sunday, so a win would put Novorizontino back on top with two rounds to go. Local media say a win on Sunday could move the club to the brink of a first promotion to Série A in its history, and the club has been pushing for a full house at the Jorjão. Operário are tenth on 51 points, too far off the promotion places and well clear of trouble, after a 1-0 win over Athletic last weekend.
Predicted lineups: Novorizontino vs Operário-PR
No predicted line-ups were published for this game, so both XIs follow the teams‘ last league starts: Novorizontino’s 1-0 win at Atlético-GO and Operário’s 1-0 home win over Athletic. Robson, Novorizontino’s top scorer with 17 league goals, did not start in Goiânia and is now a doubt with swelling in his left calf, so Carlão stays up front in my XI. Jordi is also a doubt in goal after being replaced at half-time last week, while Alvariño is suspended and Gabriel Bahia and Sander are out. For Operário, Boschilia is injured and Berto is suspended. The official line-ups were not out at the time of my pre-match update.
Novorizontino Team News & Preview
Enderson Moreira’s side are the best team in the division on the underlying numbers as well as in the table: 59.0 expected goals and 35.7 against in 35 games, both top-three figures, plus the second-most shots on target per game in the league. At home they have won ten, drawn four and lost three, scoring 31 and conceding 15.
They are unbeaten in six league games, a run that includes 3-0 against Goiás, 5-1 against Ponte Preta and the 1-0 win at Atlético-GO. Rômulo is their highest-rated player on FotMob, and Robson’s 17 goals make him the focal point up front when he plays, but a calf problem makes him a doubt here. Enderson Moreira is suspended, so assistant Luís Fernando Flores will be in the dugout.
What works for or against Novorizontino
- Top of the table and best expected goals figure in the league.
- Unbeaten in six league games.
- Ten wins from 17 home league games.
- Top scorer Robson is a doubt with a calf problem.
Operário-PR Team News & Preview
Alberto Valentim’s side have little left to play for. Before last weekend’s 1-0 win over Athletic they had lost four league games in a row, including 0-3 at Juventude and 0-1 at relegated América-MG. Away from home they have won six, drawn four and lost seven, conceding 24 goals in 17 games.
The expected goals numbers are mid-table at best: 45.9 for and 49.2 against, the 15th-best defensive figure in the division. Boschilia, with 13 league goals, is both their top scorer and their highest-rated player, and he misses this game through injury. Striker Berto is suspended as well, which leaves Caio Dantas and Dudu to carry the attack.
What works for or against Operário-PR
- One win in their last six league games.
- 15th-best expected goals against figure in the league.
- Won 2-1 against Novorizontino in July.
- Tenth, with nothing left to play for.
Novorizontino vs Operário-PR Odds
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Novorizontino vs. Operário PR Stats Comparison
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Novorizontino vs. Operário PR Form Guide
Novorizontino Form, Stats & Data
Novorizontino do not dominate the ball, but they create more than anyone else in the league and have kept 13 clean sheets. Their results are backed up by their chances, not the other way round.
Operário PR Form, Stats & Data
Operário keep the ball reasonably well but allow more chances than they create. Boschilia has carried much of their attacking load, and he is missing here.
Novorizontino vs Operário-PR: Prediction & Betting Tip
The best side in the division by points and by expected goals, unbeaten in six and playing for a historic promotion at home, face a mid-table side with nothing left to play for. That combination is about as clear as the Série B gets, and the numbers come from a whole season rather than a short run.
The strongest argument against is the head-to-head record: Operário won 2-1 in July and have beaten Novorizontino in three of the last four meetings. Nerves can also play a part when a club is this close to something it has never done before, and Novorizontino will have Robson’s fitness and a suspended manager to deal with. Operário, though, are without Boschilia, the player who carried their attack, and Berto. I still think the gap is big enough to go above my usual stake, so I back Novorizontino to win at 1.45 with Winz at 6/10. My prediction is a 2-0 home win.