Unbeaten Lazio face a Cagliari side on a three-game losing run
Pre-match update (14:10 CET): Lazio’s starting XI is out and it is the side I expected, with one change: Šutalo starts at centre-back instead of Doekhi. Rovella, Marušić and Guðmundsson are not in the squad. Inter lost the Milan derby 3-1 on Saturday, so a win here would take Lazio three points clear of them. Cagliari have Winks, Nzola and Mendy in their travelling squad, with only the long-term absentees Felici and Idrissi missing; their XI shown below is still the predicted one. Nothing changes the case, so I am sticking with Lazio to win at 1.42 with Winz (5/10). The odds quoted are from Saturday morning (31 October); prices may have moved since.
Lazio are level on 25 points with Inter at the top of Serie A after eight wins and a draw, and after Inter’s 3-1 defeat in the Milan derby on Saturday, a win would take them three points clear of Inter. Gennaro Gattuso’s side arrive on the back of a 6-2 win at Sassuolo, where they even missed two penalties. Cagliari are tenth and have lost three in a row: 0-4 at Monza, 0-2 at home to Bologna and 2-4 at Roma, where they were level until the 85th minute.
“Sfida difficile col Cagliari, Gattuso crede in me.” (“A difficult game against Cagliari, Gattuso believes in me.”) – Lazio forward Tijjani Noslin, quoted by Napoli Magazine
Predicted lineups: Lazio vs Cagliari
Lazio’s XI is now confirmed, with Josip Šutalo preferred to Doekhi at centre-back. Nicolò Rovella and Adam Marušić are not in the squad and should return against Napoli, while Albert Guðmundsson is expected back after the international break. Cagliari’s XI below is still the predicted one from Italian media. For Cagliari, Harry Winks is back in full training, while Mattia Felici and Riyad Idrissi are out. Fabio Pisacane has to choose between M’Bala Nzola and Yannick Mendy up front.
Lazio Team News & Preview
Lazio have the best defensive record in Serie A with seven goals conceded in nine games, and they have scored 22. They are perfect away from home with five wins from five, and at the Olimpico they have won three and drawn one. The 3-0 win at Juventus and the six goals at Sassuolo show how dangerous they are in transition, with Mattia Zaccagni the highest-rated player in the squad and Noslin the top scorer with four league goals.
There is one caveat: 22 goals have come from 15.5 expected goals, so Lazio have been more clinical than their chances suggest. The absence of Rovella in midfield is also felt.
What works for or against Lazio
- Unbeaten, eight wins from nine league games.
- Seven goals conceded, the fewest in Serie A.
- 22 goals from 15.5 expected goals.
- Rovella and Marušić still not ready.
Cagliari Team News & Preview
Cagliari have scored eight goals in nine league games and created 11.5 expected goals, the third-lowest total in the league. They keep the ball only 42.5 per cent of the time and won it back in the final third less often than any other side. The last three games have brought ten goals conceded, although the performance at Roma, where Maldini made it 2-2 in the 82nd minute, was praised in the local press.
Away from home they have actually been better than at the Unipol Domus, winning at Atalanta and Udinese. Daniel Maldini is their top scorer with five goals and their highest-rated player, so most of their threat depends on him.
What works for or against Cagliari
- Three straight defeats, ten goals conceded.
- Eight league goals in nine games.
- Won at Atalanta and Udinese this season.
- Winks back in training.
Lazio vs Cagliari Odds
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Lazio Form, Stats & Data
Lazio are efficient rather than dominant. They do not need long spells of pressure to score, and their third-best expected goals against figure confirms the defence is genuinely solid.
Cagliari Form, Stats & Data
Cagliari allow almost two expected goals per game, one of the weakest figures in the league. Against Lazio’s counter-attacking speed that is a real problem.
Lazio vs Cagliari: Prediction & Betting Tip
Lazio have the best defence in the league, have won eight of nine and face an opponent that has lost three in a row and creates very little. Cagliari allow almost two expected goals a game, which suits a Lazio side that scores quickly on the break.
The strongest argument against is the gap between Lazio’s goals and their expected goals, plus the absences in midfield. The last meeting in Sardinia in February also ended 0-0, and Cagliari have won twice away this season. That keeps me at 5/10 rather than higher, but I am happy to back Lazio to win at 1.42 with Winz. My prediction is a 2-0 home win.